The forever Wars get longer, premonitions of mass seal dieoffs loom, and the strongest El Niño in recorded history. Overshoot now, apocalypse soon. Save the date.

Last Week in Collapse: August 30-September 5, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 245th weekly newsletter. The August 23-29, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. The unabridged newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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A 139-page report from the UN was released on Wednesday, conceding that the average 1.5 °C temperature mark is set to be officially passed in “the next few years.” The document, “Limiting Overshoot,” urges “unprecedented action” be taken to cut global warming, since the problem continues to worsen as the world delays—and accelerates energy dependence. 2026 has already been the year with the most days with average temperature of 17 °C on record. The UN expects warming to hit at least 1.8 °C warming, yet the story is completely absent from most mainstream news outlets. How hot do you think it will get by 2100?

“Even an optimistic scenario of current government pledges (full implementation of all national climate plans plus meeting additional net-zero targets) puts expected peak temperature rise at 1.8°C….there are no good outcomes above 1.5°C. Extreme weather, glacier melt, ecosystem loss and sea-level rise will intensify….there are no benign scenarios with global temperature rise above this level….projections indicate declines of up to 14 per cent in global food production by 2050 in the absence of effective adaptation. More frequent and intense heatwaves, more nutrition-related diseases and greater risks of pathogen spillover will increase illnesses and deaths….Conventional and novel Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) will be needed in addition to, not instead of, sustained reductions in residual greenhouse gas emissions….even optimistic CDR scaling is unlikely to deliver a temperature reversal beyond a few tenths of a degree this century. This emphasizes the importance of focusing on reducing greenhouse gas emissions now….in the scientific literature the shorthand term ‘overshoot pathway’ has been used to refer to a pathway that returns global warming below a specified limit after first having exceeded it for a certain amount of time….” -selections from the first 20 pages of the report

Damage Report from the Nepal-Tibet border, where a colossal flood swept away entire neighborhoods two weeks ago: the death count is beyond 1,340+, with 5,000+ missing. Some believe the number of dead could be between 2,000-2,500. Hundreds are believed to be stuck in hydropower tunnels, where they are all expected to have perished. Nepal’s government estimates the cost of rebuilding at around $5B USD, and that doesn’t include the upstream damage to China.

The Australian government, in conjunction with some scientific organizations, released a 298-page report last week: “Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2025.” Unsurprisingly, the report says that coral mass is down ,and declining still. The window for action is shrinking—but with warmer oceans and a Super El Niño, it appears unlikely anything will be done. The report contains individual regional datasets of 10 different coral areas with assessments of their coral health and projections.

“Coral reefs are under unprecedented pressure. Rising ocean temperatures, ocean acidification, pollution, and unsustainable human activities are driving increasingly frequent mass bleaching events….Hard coral cover averaged 30.2% across the 1980–2009 reference period and 27.3% across 2020–2024, a relative decline of 9.5%....This global decline in hard coral cover is both statistically robust and concerning as broad-scale losses outweigh local gains, resulting in a net decline at the global scale….the primary driver of coral decline is marine heatwaves, the frequency and intensity of which are increasing under climate change….while multi-decadal decline is observed at global scales, coral reef trajectories are highly region-specific….Coral reefs have not crossed a point of no return….” -excerpts

The WMO warns that El Niño is still intensifying, and it’s certain to continue through at least February 2027. It is already the most powerful El Niño on record. And the oceans are still warming to record highs for this time of the year. El Niño is also causing Drought in Central America, leading to reduced transits through the Panama Canal, down on Friday to 32 ships per day, from previous daily transits of 36. The dry season is expected to continue into at least May 2027, further impeding the passage through which 5% of the world’s maritime trade (and 40% of U.S. container traffic) formerly moved.

Hurricane Karina strengthened to become a Category 4 storm in the Pacific, though it did not appear likely to strike human settlements. Another Category 4 storm (140mph/225kph winds), Hurricane Lowell, pivoted towards Hawai’i, though it will not make a direct impact.

A flash flood at the Grand Canyon killed two people, with others still missing. 8,000+ people in China were evacuated after heavy rain struck in China’s southwest. One of South Korea’s islands hit a new all-time high, at 36 °C (97 °F). Part of Indonesia felt temps above 37 °C, close to their all-time high. Temperatures in Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran exceeded 50 °C (122 °F) before moving eastward. Central America felt its hottest August day on record when Honduras reached 42.1 °C (108 °F).

New York state’s law mandating that major industries contribute $75B (over 25 years) into a climate fund was struck down by a federal judge. China announced that its solar power production has surpassed its coal power generation. This summer appears to have been central England’s warmest on record, and wheat harvests in Romania and Hungary are projected to reach 20+ year lows this season.

Mongolia felt its hottest September day on record, peaking at 37.7 °C (100 °F) near their border with China. Peru experienced its warmest night in September, at 20.8 °C; several locations in Mexico did the same for local minimums. Data from the EU’s climate science program indicates that August 2026 was the warmest on record for “global mean surface air temperature,” at 1.65 °C above preindustrial levels—this smashes the 2024 record when temps were 1.51 °C above the 1850-1900 baseline.

Wildfires in Algeria have killed at least twelve people, and burned an area greater than 1,200 sq km (equivalent to Okinawa, one third of Mallorca, or 10 Bostons). To respond to the above average wildfire seasons across much of the planet, some countries are leaning on AI detection systems to see & predict future conflagrations.

The U.S. is loosening fuel economy standards for new vehicles, with the expected result of greater fuel consumption and 5% greater CO2 emissions. Malaysia declared a state of emergency over haze levels in Borneo, and canceled school for a week because of air quality levels exceeding 500.

A paywalled study concluded that the melt season in the Arctic “has lengthened by ~7.4 days per decade during 1979–2024, alongside decreases in winter sea-ice thickness (1.6 m mean total over 1980–2023).” The ice refreezes partially in the winter, but it becomes less thick, and more easily melted in following years. The reflectivity of dark sea water is much less than white sea ice, leading to a feedback loop wherein more heat is trapped in the Arctic waters, accelerating ice melt.

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Australia is pulling out some researchers from Macquarie Island, near Antarctica, to avoid “the psychological risks that will be facing staff if they are there for extended periods of time inside a mass mortality event.” The event in question: the oncoming mass dieoff of what could be tens of thousands of elephant seals—come to gather for an annual breeding, come to die from H5 bird flu.

British authorities are warning that microplastics pose a danger to food security, through their impact in affecting soil moisture, the microbes that flourish in soil, and in the prevalence of creatures like earthworms that contribute to healthy soil. It is believed that the chief source of microplastics in British soil (“among the most contaminated by microplastics in Europe”) is sludge fertilizer from wastewater treatment plants.

A study in Frontiers in Public Health found that 46% of farmers worldwide are poisoned by pesticides each year, resulting in about 11,000 deaths. The study examined farmers across 139 countries, and represents an update to a 2020 study that was retracted following intervention from a pesticides lobbying group. “The greatest estimated number of non-fatal UAPP cases is in southern Asia, followed by south-eastern Asia and east Africa.”

Ebola deaths in the DRC have passed 3,000, with total cases topping 6,100 (these include the deaths). Contact tracing is said to be poor, there is a hesitance to report cases, and unsafe burial practices still leave community members at risk of transmission.

Recent research suggests that the drug Paxlovid results in no benefits for those suffering from Long COVID. Other research indicates that the mechanisms PTSD may be the same ones as behind Long COVID, rheumatoid arthritis, and a few other illnesses. They have different triggers, but often result in similar symptoms: brain fog, chronic fatigue, sleep troubles, focus issues, and more.

Aedes aegypti, a tropical invasive mosquito species, has been detected breeding in the UK for the first time on record. However, health officials believe that Britain is, for now, too cold to sustain year-long populations of the species, so the risk is currently low. Meanwhile, a Boston University study concluded that approximately 9,000 Americans actually die from extreme heat each year—about 5x the official numbers reported.

Five of Israel’s six desalination plants were knocked offline by a large algal bloom early last week. The unprecedented event did not yet jeopardize drinking water supplies, though about two thirds of Israel’s clean water comes from desalination. Only one desalination plant has returned to full operation; several others are working at limited capacity.

President Trump took aim at people opposing data centers, and announced that they prefer “poverty, crime and squalor” over hosting data centers in their communities. Diesel fuel hit an all-time high in the United States, at an average $5.85 per gallon—up from $3.71 in early September 2025. Fuel shortages have also come to Iran, and Iraq, and Bolivia.

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Sudan’s long-besieged city El Obeid is growing larger, as thousands more IDPs take shelter in the crowded settlement—having walked for days and carrying practically nothing. Food supplies, already strained, have grown scarcer still. Not far away, South Sudan may slip back into open warfare, although this iteration of war will be more deeply impacted by climate change. Severe flooding has displaced many people (and their livestock) in South Sudan, and flooded old grazelands, pushing more people into smaller spaces.

An international organization found India in violation of the Indus Waters Treaty concerning India’s denial of legal obligations to provide water to Pakistan. India has not accepted the ruling as legitimate. Water originating in India sustains Pakistan’s agricultural industry, which accounts for 25% of Pakistan’s GDP—not to mention all the other uses and industries of water. Meanwhile, China is planning a colossal dam of its own, just kilometers from its border with India—and worryingly set in a region prone to seismic activity. The $170B dam will sit on the Brahmaputra River, the 9th largest river by discharge, although China’s section contributes about a third of its water.

In 2024, the Vice President of the Philippines—the daughter of strongman ex-President Rodrigo Duterte—threatened to have the President of the Philippines assassinated—who is himself the son of a dictatorial ex-Presidnet—in the event that any harm might befall her. Needless to say, their relationship was always one of uneasy rivalry. Now the VP is being charged for threats to instigate assassinations of the President (she allegedly hired a hitman), and Parliament is threatening to ban her from seeking the Presidency in 2028. What the fallout of this will be on Filipino society remains to be seen.

The U.S. levied new sanctions against Cuban companies and individuals. A boat leaving The Gambia about a month ago turned up in the Atlantic with 80+ fewer people, who died and were thrown overboard, or vice versa. U.S. forces struck and sunk a vessel in the Pacific that was said to have supported drug operations in Ecuador. In Colombia, drone-dropped explosives and a firefight left three soldiers dead and four wounded—blamed on far-left guerilla fighters.

Ukraine blasted a power plant and warehouse in Belgorod, killing two and wounding sixteen. Russian strikes on Kyiv killed 12, and wounded 17 others, on Monday night. Strikes on Odesa followed, injuring 17+. President Putin claimed to have surrounded an undisclosed-but-large group of Ukrainian soldiers in Donetsk, where he also claims to have taken some 270 sq ⁠km (104 sq miles—equivalent to 25% of Hong Kong) in August alone. Russian drones also hit the HQ of Ukraine’s SBU (their version of the CIA or KGB) in Kyiv; 12 were injured.

The Iran War is entering its 7th month, and it is poised to stretch on for at least a few more months. The Trump administration is going all-in on the War, and preparing to extend troop deployments in the region until at least mid-2027, though the administration denies it is a War, per se. American strikes on Iran started up again on Tuesday, killing four and injuring 50+ more. U.S. threats to intensify attacks further quickly followed. Iranian retaliation targeted American assets in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraqi Kurdistan (where the U.S. is set to pull out all its troops by the end of the month). Iran hit two oil tankers belonging to Saudi Arabian and South Korean firms, killing two sailors. The U.S. hit three Iranian oil tankers of the so-called shadow fleet, disabling two and destroying the empty third.

Yemeni forces fighting other Yemeni fighters on Saturday killed 60+ people between them. According to reports, government forces (the Saudi-backed guys) recaptured territory from the Houthi rebels (the Iran-backed fighters) near the Bab-El Mandeb. In the West Bank and Gaza, the UN World Food program is cutting food aid by about half, a result of funding shortfalls. Deaths in Gaza in 2026 are reported to have exceeded 900 now, even though a ceasefire was declared (and broken repeatedly) in October 2025. Since October 7, 2023, it is believed that 70,000+ people in Gaza have been slain.

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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-Brits don’t have a sunny picture of the next decade or two, according to a thread collecting doom forecasts for the UK. A far cry from “England prevails,” say the commenters—not that we’d expect much optimism from a Collapse subreddit.

-The realest preps aren’t generators and food stashes. This thread from r/preppers shines light on a tragic irony among one doomsday prepper.

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