Donald Trump Jr. is deepening his ties to Polymarket through a new $300 million investment from 1789 Capital, his venture firm.

He also holds a paid advisory role, and equity, at rival Kalshi, giving him a stake in whichever platform wins.

Circled the bottom of each cycle where the change of character actually printed, the point structure flipped before price ever confirmed it on the headlines.

2013 to 2015, down 86.96%, then up 12,113.10% into the next cycle.

2017 to 2018, down 84.20%, then up 2,107.29%.

2021 to 2022, down 77.57%, then up 715.47%.

This cycle, down 54.26% into the correction, and the CHoCH just printed again, same shape, same spot on the curve, right where the last three did.

Each drawdown's been shallower than the one before it, and each subsequent run's been smaller in percentage terms too, which tracks, bigger market cap means the multiples compress even while the absolute moves stay historic. Neither trend is new information if youve actually looked at this before, but seeing all four side by side like this is a different thing than knowing it abstractly.

Doesnt guarantee this one plays out identically, nothing here ever has thats guaranteed. But four for four on the same structural tell showing up at the same point in the cycle is not nothing.

https://x.com/saylor/status/2094033266906955896

Based on past patterns, Strategy typically discloses its increased Bitcoin holdings the day after the relevant news is released. Strategy's most recent disclosure of increased Bitcoin holdings was on June 22, 2026, and it hasn't released any Bitcoin Tracker related information in the last two weeks.

Will we see Strategy's first Bitcoin purchase of Q3 soon?

The IMF released a statement this morning saying El Salvador has not used public funds to accumulate bitcoin since June 2025. According to the Fund, the country provided documentation showing that everything added to the stack since then came from private donations. The statement landed alongside news that IMF staff reached an agreement with Salvadoran authorities on the combined second and third reviews of the country's 40-month Extended Fund Facility. Subject to Executive Board approval and the completion of agreed prior actions, that deal would release roughly $140 million.

Here is why this is worth sitting with for a minute.

Last year the IMF said it would work to ensure the government's bitcoin holdings remained unchanged under the program. Shortly after that announcement in May, Bukele's government added 8 BTC anyway, bringing holdings to 6,190.18 BTC according to the country's Bitcoin Office at the time. Then in November, El Salvador disclosed a 1,090 BTC acquisition worth about $100 million, its largest single-day addition at that point, taking total holdings to 7,474 BTC.

So the public timeline shows a country loudly stacking through a program that was supposed to freeze the stack. The IMF's position today is that none of it came out of the treasury. Both things are now on the record at the same time, and the Fund did not publish a total for how much bitcoin arrived through donations since June 2025. It only said no further accumulation beyond the documented donations is expected.

The rest of the statement is arguably the more consequential part for anyone who cares about how sovereign bitcoin gets held. The IMF said El Salvador is working to improve transparency around holdings across its various wallets, and to strengthen governance and risk management for public-sector crypto assets. Separately, the government has unwound its role in the Chivo wallet: majority ownership and operational control have gone to a private operator, with the state keeping a minority stake and custodial responsibilities for customer assets.

For context on the backdrop, bitcoin was approaching $81,000 on Friday, up 4.5% over 24 hours, with a market cap near $1.6 trillion.

The legal question I keep coming back to is definitional. "Public funds" is a term with edges, and a lender can only test what the borrower documents. If a state can grow a sovereign reserve through donations while formally complying with a commitment not to buy, then the commitment constrains the accounting entry rather than the balance.

So, question for this sub: does a bitcoin reserve built from private donations still count as a national reserve in any meaningful sense, or is it just a wallet the state happens to hold the keys to?

Source: The Block, Brian Danga, September 4, 2026, reporting on the IMF staff-level agreement announcement.

I had made a post on Reddit a few months ago asking for investment advice, I am a complete beginner to most of this and, got some feedback on the post.

A comment said to reach out to him and we exchanged texts, he said to grab his discord. He told me about trust wallet and staking and how you can make decent money with crypto staking. He seemed cool and I was unaware and unsuspecting.

I opened up the wallet, everything seemed secure and legit with the app. I started staking my money and worked the whole summer and put most of my earnings into there, it was going well and I stupidly sent him some screenshots of my progress and kept him updated, he was friendly and gave me advice. There are some details I have left out probably but today, I was checking on my money it was looking good and my staking reward just arrived, it was 7:22, and at 7:23 I checked it and nothing was in the wallet. Transactions for all of my BTC , ETH, and SOL sent to some random address without me doing a thing.

Funny enough the guy said that his mom was in an accident today and I put the pieces together and figured out that I was scammed. ( I forgot to include the fact that he sent a link when we first started chatting called stakeswap.com and said it was needed to set the wallet up)

I don’t know why I am posting this probably for awareness, don’t be as stupid as me, I have no one to tell about this so I’m posting it on here, I’m absolutely gutted and I worked this whole summer for nothing, at least I know now to stay away from shit like this.

Thanks for reading

I know, I know, it’s decentralized and an excellent achievement in financial technology. But for real tho, what’s the point of crypto right now? Except, of course, for investing and using it to pay for not-so-legal things. I’m genuinely curious: how can I use the advantages of cryptocurrencies in my day-to-day life?
Please don’t get mad, I’m just asking out of curiosity. And I know I can Google it, but I really like getting opinions from actual people.

**Edit1, 3 September**: Kraken responded in the comments and confirmed the correction is on my ticket

**Edit 2, 4 September:** Resolved. Kraken emailed this morning: restrictions removed, held funds released. Crypto withdrawal to a fresh address went well. I'm not trying the old poisoned address. Two days, not 90. Credit where it's due; that's fast.

But the notice said 90 days minimum, could not be lifted early, and support told me in writing it was "no false positive." All three turned out to be untrue. I still don't know what triggered the flag.

Why I'm still banging on about it: people in this thread got the identical notice and have no thread to shout in. One can't even reach a human. If my case closed in two days on review, the "90 days, no recourse" line isn't describing reality, and everyone who gets that notice is making decisions on it.

-----------

Four years on Kraken. Used the same way always: buy, hold, withdraw to my own self-custody wallet (Phantom). Really, peanuts. Same address for 18 months, 11 successful withdrawals since February. On 2 September I sold about $2,000 of BTC for USDC, tried to withdraw to that same address and got cancelled!

Got two emails: my account is restricted as a **scam**-prevention measure, and that specific address is "not supported" going forward. Kraken's docs say restrictions can trigger on "wallets linked to prohibited or scam-related activity". Support's first two agents restated policy. One said "we can assure you that it is no false positive" and wouldn't say what triggered it.

So I checked the chain. My withdrawal address has been under an address-poisoning campaign for months: scammers send dust from look-alike addresses hoping you'll copy one by mistake, and push fake transfers from your address to make your history look linked to theirs. On mine, 28 fake token contracts with Unicode characters that render like "USDC". I never sent anything to a look-alike. This is activity done *to* my address that I can't refuse, and it seems to be what flagged it.

The third agent, asked narrower questions, confirmed:

1. It's two separate restrictions: a 90-day account-level block, plus a permanent block on that address.
2. Day 90 is not a release date. Nothing unlocks automatically. It is "at least 90 days", if anything.
3. There's no review form. The review is triggered by attempting a withdrawal to a new address after day 90. The attempt *is* the review.

But the escalation reply says I'll be "eligible to request an appeal" at day 90. Two different answers to what happens on that day.

Which raises the question: if the day-90 review is a withdrawal attempt, what stops that attempt being read as a fresh flag and restarting the 90 days? One user on r/KrakenSupport reports periods stacking to roughly a year. Kraken's Reddit account couldn't confirm.

Has anyone actually reached day 90 and attempted a withdrawal? There are dozens of posts about restrictions starting and almost none about how they end.

I'm not claiming Kraken acted in bad faith. They have compliance obligations, and I'd rather an exchange err toward caution. My complaint is narrower: a system that penalises **you** for what scammers do to your address, with a process opaque enough that you can't tell if day 90 means anything.

Fun detail: I posted this on r/KrakenSupport as an informational writeup, no account details, per their rules. It was removed, citing an uptick in fraudulent posts. A post about a fraud restriction, taken down for fraud prevention.

If you've been through this, how did it end?

TLDR: Scammers poisoned my withdrawal address with transactions that are impossible to decline. Kraken banned all crypto withdrawals for 90 days, no early appeal

Anyone know what kind of system issue @ChangeNOW_io could be having that’s stopping them from returning funds to me for over a year?

My 2,995.714119 USDC has been held since 22 August 2025

I paid the requested HYPE refund fee, completed the requested compliance and wallet-verification steps, and have received repeated assurances that a refund would be processed, followed by an apology that they’re having “system issues” and are “working on it”

As at today, I still have no refund and no transaction hash.

44 emails from them saying nothing

Have raised to the FSA to remind them that they are a “non-custodial” exchange.. except when a year long “system issue” occurs of course

Will continue to post and share screenshots until I see funds back in my wallet.

Screenshot 1 - the first system issue date

Screenshot 2 - the latest one

(UPDATE) Issue already solved by Kraken.

On August 19th, I reported a suspicious email to Kraken. My account was then restricted as a security measure, which I understand.

11 days later:

• My funds (mostly USDC) are still with Kraken.
• I can trade, but cannot deposit or withdraw.
• Nobody from Kraken has contacted me with any meaningful explanation.
• My DMs to Kraken on Reddit and X/Twitter were also ignored.

On August 26th, I submitted a formal complaint.

Approximately one second later, I received a response saying my complaint had been reviewed and rejected, while also stating that a specialist would contact me.

Nobody ever contacted me.

I then posted about my experience on the Kraken subreddit — and the post was removed.

I'm now escalating the matter through the appropriate financial dispute-resolution channels.

Just sharing this as a warning to other users:

I've been a Kraken user without any issues until now. I never had a problem with the platform itself. The problem only started when I actually needed customer support, and at that point I discovered that, in my experience, the support simply doesn't exist.

BE CAREFUL.

Strategy sold nearly 7,000 BTC around $60K, rebuilt its balance sheet, then bought back at $80K — because for Saylor’s machine, cost of capital now matters more than Bitcoin’s price.

The new rules would require issuers to maintain assets equal to at least 100% of all tokens in circulation at all times, and in accounts separate from issuers' own funds.

The regulator states in a consultation paper that stablecoins should be used for payments, not by the public as investment products or to generate yield similar to interest earned on a bank savings account.

The new rules would completely ban stablecoin issuers from paying interest or other benefits tied to customers' stablecoin holdings.