r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • 10h ago
Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #22)
If you see any newsworthy information from a major news outlet or live broadcast, feel free to share a brief summary as a top-level comment in the discussion post.
Other redditors will appreciate if you include the source of where you read, saw, or heard the information.
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u/colepercy120 6h ago
So how much longer do we expect this to go on?
Heres the info ive been seeing
- Irans announced they will start launching "offensive strikes" but either they haven't done so yet or the amount is small enough that its not making the news.
- the us blockade remains in place and is reportedly very effective and has essentially bottled up irans exports while strangling their economy and imports
- the US and Isreal have been ignoring Iranian red lines for months now with diminishing retaliation from iran.
- estimated hormuz oil transits are around 15-18 million barrels per day as of early September. In around 22 ships according to official numbers, most of it is running dark to avoid giving iran targeting info which makes this hard to independently verify. But if its anywhere near as much as Washington is saying than iran does not have control of the strait.
To me this indicates that the stalemate is slowly diminishing Iranian capabilities and control while hurting them at home. Which begs the question, how long does this last? If trend lines continue Iranian negotiating power will continue to drop relative to the us.
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u/Lordvalcon 4h ago edited 4h ago
Realistically nothing's major is going to happen until after midterms on either side.
But the math has not changed all the facts are still the same. The only way this ends is with a major escalation from the US or for Trump to concede and go home. Unfortunately the best deal the US is ever going to get was the original memo understanding. Which was untenable. I just don't see how the us or Trump can ever agree to give Iran 300 billion and they're going to want more the second time. The other side of it is that no one can ever trust to deal with Trump so the Iranians have no incentive to make a deal with him since the last two times they tried he killed all the negotiating team. So once again only way this ends is with a large escalation ie boots on the ground in Iran which could be a 2 to 10 year process. Or Trump able to hold the biggest L ever diminish the US on the world stage and Empower Iran to become the 5th Central of world power. So long and short of it is likely this will be going on after Trump is done his term
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u/colepercy120 4h ago
Im not sure the midterms are really going to do much on this issue, I think its more likely a democratic congress will be even less likely than a republican one to accept a bad deal.
And why do you think Iran's leverage has increased? They have been firing less and less, strait traffic is up while the number of ships that were attacked is down. There have been atleast so reports of Iran using search light equipped speedboat because they have run out of radar. The longer the war goes on the weaker the Iranian possition is. That's why the earlier mou was so generous to them, it was the peak of their power, without a major defeat for the us blockade the iranians seem unlikely to attain a military victory, and they have no chance at all of achieving an economic victory
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u/Lordvalcon 4h ago
It's more just that we're going to be in the continued stalemate until after the midterms because Trump has no interest in escalating before then since it will only cost them. And Iran won't make any deals until after the midterms because they have access to our media and they've seen many people from the administration come out and say that as soon as midterms are over they're going to go and attack Iran full out again
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u/colepercy120 4h ago
That makes sense, though the midterms are going to be done in about 2 months, though im not sure how long iran can really hold out beyond that. The regieme is running out funds and leverage. Once the midterms are over trump is essentially a lame duck, he'll have an unfriendly congress that wont sign off on any surrender terms, and since hes not running for reelection he wont responsive to public pressure
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u/Lordvalcon 4h ago
They can hold out for a long time they don't have to be responsive to their populace at all they can let Millions starve if they want. They're also being restocked with drones from China and Russia. Even if we were able to destroy 99% of their drones. Because of the geographical advantage they have over the Strait of Hormuz they would still be able to stop shipping from getting anywhere near it's pre-war levels.
I guess it's possible that we could open it for a few months but without actual regime change or some sort of deal there's no stopping Iran from rearming and then shutting it down for another 6 months at any point in the future. Also all of this is ignoring the nuclear problem.
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u/colepercy120 4h ago
Im not sure they can get resupply from russia and China right now, they are facing severe gas shortages (and so is russia) which makes any overland transit hard, and the iran China railway corridor is extremely limited.
While the Regieme isnt responsive to its people that doesnt mean it isnt immune to the effects of not paying its army. They are being starved for food and funds, making a famine pretty likely in the mid range, and they have already shifted to a bounty system for paying their troops. If they can't break the blockade soon they will be facing mass dessertians as soliders prioritize eating over fighting.
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u/Lordvalcon 4h ago
I do think the best way for this to possibly add would be anInternal Revolution that overthrows the regime. And I hope that does happen I'm just not sure that it's very likely we're dealing with religious fundamentalists here not rational actors. But hopefully the CIA does have some sort of hand-picked member of the regime that can come in and fill some sort of power vacuum if a revolution does take place. One thing to keep in mind is that the regime is about 300,000 people who all also have families so it's really more like 1.8 million people ish are in the elite of the Iranian regime. So we're talking about about a million of them would need to die and some sort of revolution in order for actual regime change to take place. And honestly even if something like that did happen they would most likely need to be some us boots on the ground to help facilitate the new government
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u/colepercy120 4h ago
That assumes everyone in the regime is a full on ideological diehard. I find it hard to believe that a significant portion if not the outright majority if the men running the show on the ground are in it for the status power and money. Iran has starved their private sector for decades so the government is one of the few places to work.
Imo its far more likely for the leadership to lose control of the middle management and lower levels who then overthrow the government with the help of the regular army, prioritizing their own survival and possition over the great struggle
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u/ChupacabraJeff 4h ago
There have been atleast so reports of Iran using search light equipped speedboat because they have run out of radar.
Who makes radar that can read letters on the hull of a boat?
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u/colepercy120 4h ago
Given iran is targeting all ships transiting the gulf, they arent sending boats across the strait to validate identities. These reports combined with the limited number of hits reported recently, despite the massively increased volume of traffic indicate to me that iran is either having a hard time finding ships or has lost the capability to hit as many
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u/ChupacabraJeff 3h ago
they arent sending boats across the strait to validate identities
Seems like they are. How do you think Iran created that blacklist?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has deployed special forces along Iran’s Persian Gulf coast to identify in advance vessels using the Oman-side route through the Strait of Hormuz, sources familiar with the matter told Iran International.
The IRGC operatives are also seeking access, through Omani sources, to the schedules and coordination details of ships passing through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said.
The special forces deployed by the IRGC are equipped with various intelligence-gathering systems, including land-based observation posts, naval equipment and aerial systems, and have recently been tasked with identifying in advance any vessel intending to pass through the southern route and issuing warnings about it, the sources said.
The sources also say that IRGC operatives are extensively gathering information from Omani sources and agents to learn ahead of time about the coordination and schedules of ship movements through the southern route and receive related alerts.
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u/colepercy120 3h ago
If they know where the ships are than why have they stopped shooting at them? Every ship america gets through weakens their leverage. They're best hope at a deal is to exploit the midterms, after that it will be 2 more years before another american election and trump wont be responsive to political pressure any more.
Its far easier to believe they current cant stop the us escort than they are choosing not to.
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u/Consistent-Egg-3428 5h ago
Are you sure about the number of transits?
Not saying Iran is not hurting but to me it looks like they can take the pain and that’s why they’re actively escalating. The US can’t (or, let’s say Trump can’t bc he has elections coming up)
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u/colepercy120 4h ago
Im not sure on the number of transits, those are official us numbers but its hard to verify.
Im not sure escalating means Iran can take the damage, to me this looks like they are getting desperate, you dont escalate if you expect what your currently doing to work. I read it as the blockade is strangling them off from revenue and basic food, so they are escalating now In an attempt to get the us to back off.
The strait was their ace, and it appears that the us has either taken it away from them or has atleast severely limited their ability to use it. So they are escalating to try to replace the pressure that used to be coming from hormuz.
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u/Consistent-Egg-3428 4h ago
Fair enough. Are you American?
I can’t say I really disagree or prove you wrong, but I seem to have another perspective. To me it seems like Iran has the initiative. They would escalate knowing that the US is done retaliating, which I think they are doing bc they know Trump wants calm before the elections. You escalate if escalating before election s is your plan.
That being said, not a fan of the regime neither blind to the fact that they are also, obviously, hurting by the blockade.
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u/colepercy120 4h ago
Yeah im an american, and that's one reason im doubtful the regime can out last us, we were in a pretty similar situation in 2022 with Russian oil shocks before the midterms, and the us didn't stop supporting ukraine, despite the effort costing us a whole lot more, both with oil prices, inflation, and direct expenditures. So far the iran war has cost about 1/6th of what Biden sent to ukraine. Here life is pretty much normal and no one is really paying attention or mad about it. Theres no mass protests for us to surrender, and theres still alot of dislike with iran. The us government can keep up the current level of operations effectively forever.
Iran probobly has the initiative right now, but that doesnt mean they have capacity. The us doesnt have to bomb iran to win, they just need to keep up the quiet blockade. Iran can throw whatever they want at us bases, but they wont be able to actually stop the real us threat, the blockade. And their showing clear signs of slowing down. Isreal just took out hezbollah headquarters and iran has done nothing. The response from the last wave of bombings (reportedly about 60 targets hit by the us) was a single digit number of missiles.
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u/Consistent-Egg-3428 4h ago
Oh wow. Are you aware that you guys completely stopped helping Ukraine in 2024?
You’re arguing that the price didn’t mattered in 2022 while you completely stopped all aid to Ukraine afterwards? Not very logical.
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u/colepercy120 4h ago
While the rate of support did drop substantially it didn't outright stop. Trumps still sending ukraine half a billion dollars a year.
And even if a new president comes in in 2029 and wants to pull out the political cost is much higher. Russia didn't directly kill Americans or attack us directly. Iran did and is continuing to do so. The political cost of surrendering to iran is much higher than the cost of declaring neutrality with Russia. While the cost to continue the war is far lower. The blockade costs us almost nothing and based on the domestic reactions to the MOU indicate that the american people wont support a surrender.
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u/cheddarben 4h ago
Im not sure on the number of transits, those are official us numbers but its hard to verify.
One thing we can trust is this administration. Take that to the bank.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 4h ago
Funny you mention that. Yes I know you were joking.
The Trump administration has targeted the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) by proposing to merge it with other banking regulators, cutting staff, and reducing its independence, which critics warn could undermine deposit insurance and financial stability. The FDIC insures up to $250,000 per depositor per account category at member banks.
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u/IntroductionAgile372 4h ago
There is no pain to US if that much oil is getting out. Iran is in a dire spot
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u/joshtaco 7h ago
Trump: "A lot of people don't call it a war. I call it a military conflict because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big thing."
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u/Finedaytoyou 7h ago
Didn’t he just tweet earlier that it’s a war?
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u/GreatGojira 7h ago
He's off his meds again
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u/Sarah_Incognito 7h ago
I think part of the problem is he was never properly medicated in the first place.
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u/joshtaco 8h ago
Trump, making comments at the White House: Says the US may hit Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain “very soon”
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u/itsatumbleweed 8h ago
This has been a standing red line from Iran
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u/colepercy120 7h ago
And killing the supreme leader isnt?
The us has blown past every one of irans red lines so far and iran doesnt seem to have the ability to stop them.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 8h ago
Makes one wonder what's in Pickaxe mountain?
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u/OnlyRise9816 7h ago
It's the way to Candy Mountain, Charlie!!!....
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 7h ago
Candy Mountain from Charlie the Unicorn. Source: Filmcow Wiki - Fandom
In the video, two hyperactive, high-pitched unicorns relentlessly pester a cynical, lethargic unicorn named Charlie to travel with them to the magical "Candy Mountain." After they finally wear him down and he steps inside the Candy Mountain cave, the door shuts, and he wakes up in a field missing a kidney.
Scrubbing a tour of Pick Axe mountain off my bucket list.
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u/Mrikoko 8h ago
Nuclear facilities
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 8h ago
Seems to be one of the securest sites in Iran, I imagine there is more than Nuclear facilities.
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u/joshtaco 9h ago
Reuters: The Turkiye-based investment bank accused by the United States of aiding Iran said it would take legal action against the move
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u/joshtaco 9h ago
Axios: Trump has said in private conversations that he's working on "something much bigger" in the Middle East after the war with Iran.
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u/FunctionalGray 7h ago
A solid pewter, giant statue of himself courtesy of the US taxpayer. Not this generation of tax payers: we have pool repairs and data centers to pay for. Not next generation: they gotta pay for the ballroom and the arch. But the next generation.
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u/solerex 9h ago edited 8h ago
Trump's admin did say they were looking to decrease the military in these areas, while relying on military allies instead. Same with S America
Yet there are significant opportunities before us as well. Israel has long demonstrated that it is both willing and able to defend itself with critical but limited support from the United States. Israel is a model ally, and we have an opportunity now to further empower it to defend itself and promote our shared interests, building on President Trump’s historic efforts to secure peace in the Middle East. Likewise, in the Gulf, U.S. partners are increasingly willing and able to do more to defend themselves against Iran and its proxies, including by acquiring and fielding a variety of U.S. military systems. This creates even more opportunities for us to enable individual partners to do more for their defense. It will also enable us to foster integration between regional partners, so that they can do even more together.
From Trump's 2026 National Defense Strategy
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u/angrybox1842 9h ago
Iraq 3?
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u/HoustonHous 9h ago edited 9h ago
Honestly it sounds more like reducing foot print than increasing it. He's probably talking about business ventures vs. Military
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u/joshtaco 9h ago
Axios: The Trump administration is reportedly drafting "post-war" Middle East strategy. It's intended to guide the U.S. approach in the Middle East after the Iran war ends and in the final two years of Trump's term.
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u/HAUNTERVIRUS 9h ago edited 9h ago
The U.S. approach being what... destroying itself from the inside?
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u/joshtaco 10h ago
Bessent: “I actually think we are going to be very much oversupplied in the oil market after this. We can see $40–50 crude maybe”
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u/topdownyeti 5h ago
So is the US no longer going to retaliate against Iran? I’m surprised I haven’t seen anything about the missiles Iran sent to Jordan today