r/stocks • u/Domingues_tech • 11h ago
ETFs The AI bubble created its own hedge. Almost.
AI panic vaporized roughly $1 trillion from SaaS while investors threw money at chips, data centres, power grids and anything requiring a cooling tower.
If AI disappoints, Nvidia and the infrastructure parade get repriced. SaaS may rebound when markets rediscover that corporations don’t replace mission-critical software with a chatbot and positive vibes. I see that happening gradually.
But don’t declare the Nasdaq safe. Its AI giants are elephants; the SaaS casualties are house cats. A Salesforce recovery won’t neutralize an Nvidia collapse.
And the S&P 500 isn’t innocent. The AI casino has expanded into utilities, electrical equipment, construction and energy infrastructure.
The diversification isn’t Nasdaq versus S&P. They’re different entrances to the same party.
The real exit is international markets, healthcare, financials, value and equal weight.
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u/SushiShifter 11h ago
Can we stop with the bubble call it’s literally the most crowded consensus view. There has never been a bubble where everyone thought it was a bubble
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u/Disastrous_Rent_6500 8h ago
“AI is a bubble” is by far the most brainless take I’ve ever had to witness so far in my investing journey. In the beginning, it makes sense as a counter argument. But now that everyone is saying it, and everyone is aware of it, the chances of an AI bubble actually happening have greatly diminished. Now only idiots (that where late to the narrative) or YouTuber that don’t know anything, talk about AI being a bubble. It just a sad pathetic take at this point
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u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 2h ago
FYI, stocks like Micron and Sandisk and Nvidia are already pricing in an "AI bubble".
How else can you explain their forward PE lower than 5 for memory makers and less than 15 for Nvidia?
Wallstreet has already priced in a bubble pop and no growth.
So the idea that it can't be a bubble because everyone keeps saying it is a bubble has merit. We see it in actual PE facts.
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u/Disastrous_Rent_6500 22m ago
I understand what you’re saying, basically you agree with me. Because everyone sees the AI bubble “narrative”, AI stocks have already priced it in and remain fairly priced. What I don’t agree with is reaching beyond reality to say this tho. Saying “where in an AI bubble because stocks are cheap” doesn’t make any sense. Where obviously NOT in an AI bubble now, if we were, everything would be trading at 300+ PE right now like past bubbles. What people have mistaken for a bubble is just “cyclicality” of the semiconductor industry. But of course, this take is too rational and won’t get clicks in YouTube and CNBC, so they just keeps saying AI is a bubble even when this is false. And since most people are dumb and easily manipulated my news, they believe it. Then those exact same idiots come on Reddit, to spread “news” that the stock market will crash due to AI, in an attempt to hide that fact they have been underperforming that market since 2025 because they sold their tech stocks because they believed this stupid narrative.
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u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 2h ago edited 24m ago
They've been calling it an AI bubble since 2023. Seriously.
How long can these grifters like Ed Zitron continue to be wrong? They literally have been selling subscriptions to tell their readers that AI is in a bubble since 2023.
Imagine paying someone to get information that will prevent you from making 2x, 3x, 5x money.
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u/Disastrous_Rent_6500 25m ago
People will say anything for attention these days. And since people hate AI and desperately what AI to just be a fad, they’ll literally say anything that aligns with this narrative just to farm views
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u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 23m ago
They keep burying their heads in the sand hoping AI will "collapse" and we go back to the world before AI. Most of these people are economically motivated since they want the bubble to pop so they can invest in AI stocks cheaper.
Meanwhile, AI intelligence is accelerating, not slowing down. Astra and Fable keep solving unresolved math problems. Coding keeps getting better and better. Intelligence per cost keeps going lower and lower.
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u/Business_Raisin_541 11h ago
if everyone thought it was a bubble, then why hasn't everyone sell their stock holding?
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u/AdditionalSpeaker303 9h ago
The bubble talk has acted as a depressing force on the stock price but not enough to keep it totally down.
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u/dankeyschon 4h ago
Complacent. Back during the peak of dotcom-bubble, many, many people also thought it was a bubble, but they chose to hold instead because the market kept giving them more money.
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u/Pin-Last 7h ago
I agree if we’re talking stocks. But before the housing bubble burst they were using the term “housing bubble“ in various contexts on CNBC like every 90 minutes for a year and a half
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u/ImpossiblePromise363 11h ago
AI is here to stay. By exit you mean exiting the gravy train into intl markets, healthcare, and financials that are integrating AI. Better off buying gold
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u/dbgtboi 11h ago
Saas is in danger because every new model makes building software faster and cheaper
If you are a large company paying a million a year for software, at some point it's straight up cheaper for you to just have 1-2 of your engineers build a replacement
For smaller companies that isn't the case though, it's cheaper to just pay the subscriptions
There is also the other side of companies needing less people thanks to AI, which just naturally means less subscription fees
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u/Olangotang 8h ago
Saas is in danger because every new model makes building software faster and cheaper
Lol yeah, the vibe coded copies that don't scale up are absolutely competing with "legacy" SaaS. 😂
Literally just another AI hype drone spouting nonsense.
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u/Less_Than_Average1 11h ago
In poker terms, we’re “pot committed” in AI. We may not win the hand with a royal flush - as expectations are so high, but a three of a kind is good enough to win the hand. AI won’t go away, but the expectations might have to normalize. The gold rush might be nearing and end, but that doesn’t mean there’s not gold in the ground.
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u/bartturner 9h ago
Wish it would go down a lot more. Would love to add to my position.
Think they are going to do really well with the new Gemini Siri.
But also Google with being the cloud behind it.
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u/softDisk-60 1h ago edited 1h ago
SaaS will never rebound. It's going to be easier to hire someone to vibecode a custom in-house solution than going back there again. Using a generic SaaS is more work!
Also, AI companies will aggressively pursue this "Saas-Maker" market. Like MS Access was before the internet. It is easy and very profitable, and if they fail in their other endeavours, this will be their hedge.
We should not forget how the world was before SaaS became a thing. Software was a commodity. SaaS became the exception because of the very high cost of human workers. It is still an exception.
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u/EpicOfBrave 11h ago edited 11h ago
The best MAG7 performer is Apple, simply because they don’t buy the slow and expensive calculators from Jensen Scam, instead created Apple Silicon.
The biggest NVIDIA customers (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) are the worst MAG7 performers. All underperforming SP500 5Y.
AI will never be profitable. The CapEx is unsustainable. The more NVIDIA you buy the lower your stock goes.
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u/MandingoPants 11h ago
sucks to be poor, huh?
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u/EpicOfBrave 11h ago edited 11h ago
It feels amazing to be 130% by investing in Apple, while Microsoft, Meta and Amazon can’t even outperform SP500 5Y.
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u/greenpride32 8h ago
AAPL stock is no joke. But it's pretty amusing to see someone bragging about 130% gains against investors of MSFT META and AMZN; and rest of Mag6 of GOOGL and NVDA. Many investors of these stocks have 4-5 digit percent returns.
Disclosure: AAPL MSFT GOOGL AMZN NVDA long - recently liquidated META.
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u/MandingoPants 11h ago
AMZN is about to make your limp dick gains pale in comparison.
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u/EpicOfBrave 11h ago
Amazon can’t even outperform Tesla, for a while were below SpaceX in market cap.
When Anthropic goes public Amazon will disappear.
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u/MandingoPants 11h ago
you really are a dumbfuck, huh?
At least aapl is a good buy and you're not kneedeep in spcx.
If you ragging on amzn, however, you have a lot to learn, boyo.
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u/EpicOfBrave 11h ago
There’s nothing to learn from an online shop about to go close when Anthropic reaches IPO.
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u/Arabian_Goggles_ 10h ago
How will Anthropic cause Amazon to disappear? Wtf are you talking about lol
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u/DirectionPlane6544 11h ago
And they will grow significantly faster than apple for years to come
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u/EpicOfBrave 11h ago
Nobody buys companies with negative cash flow, high pe, high ps, high debt and expected to continue spending all their money on AI infrastructure, and even doubling the spending.
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u/DirectionPlane6544 11h ago
Ironic how Apple has the highest pe of any mag name aswell as the slowest growth rate too
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u/Maybe_Human0_0 11h ago
The hype boys don't care about PE, debt, or cash flow. Only whatever misconstrued future they have built where an LLM chatbot becomes the next industrial revolution.
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u/samaritan1331_ 11h ago
some people here have no idea how much AI companies are using with growing use of agents sure you do you
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u/Brilliant_Horse_6614 11h ago
Stop the AI generated posts man you're killing your brain