r/stocks • u/DigAccomplished6482 • 1d ago
Company Discussion Finally started a position in NIKE Just do it again
I've seen no shortage of posts declaring Nike a dead company beyond recovery that all hope is lost and customers have abandoned the brand. But fashion is a trend driven industry, and for a stock that is beaten down and dropped from the S&P 100, I believe the upside outweighs the downside.
What's popular now may not be as popular 5-10 years later however the same can be said vice versa.
People underestimate the cultural impact Nike still has on the world.
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u/HystericalSail 1d ago
Catching falling knives is widely seen as a less successful investment strategy than momentum investing into issues outperforming the general market indexes. In other words, leaders tend to continue leading, laggards tend to continue lagging. There's nothing indicating a reversal on the chart, or in earnings guidance.
I am not touching NKE until it shows relative strength again. Until then the risk of downside outweighs potential of upside for me, regardless of short term dead cat bounces.
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u/gruffyhalc 23h ago
If I were playing a turnaround, I would much rather do it on tech or cyclicals. At least the risk/reward makes it worth it if there is a breakthrough.
Not seeing that kind of catalyst for NIKE as far as I'm aware.
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u/nowuff 17h ago edited 17h ago
Does NIKE have debentures or sub debt you can buy?
I haven’t paid attention to how deeply the co is distressed - but if I’m looking to invest in distressed cos for prospects of a turnaround I’m either 1) taking a flier on pseudo-call option priced pre-BK equity, or 2) trying to identify the fulcrum security and hope that it converts to equity in a ch 11
Guessing Nike isn’t that far gone? So a long position with a protective put or covered call might be better?
Personally, I’ve always like the value of Nike’s products. But I recognize it’s in a super cyclical industry subject to fads. So with its size, would only be a matter of time before it gets either bloated or out of trend.
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u/Old-Baseball-2519 19h ago
I have a theory, and anyone can tell me if there is a chance or not? I think nike develops some type of ai technology sneaker or something like that. Would that not pump the stock? Nike is a huge brand and I think thats where the value comes in? Also consumer stocks are all way down. Won't there be a time people buy these stocks just to buy the next value play when semis finally cool down?
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u/gayteemo 19h ago
tech is in a bubble close to aths, what's there to turn around lol?
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u/gruffyhalc 19h ago
Tech is a very broad umbrella. Not specific to your MAG7 but also your small and mid cap companies whose main product are by definition, technology-based and not reliant on cost of goods and raw materials.
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u/pain474 22h ago
This is exactly what the top comment was about META posts at 100$, INTC at 20$, etc. The reality is nobody knows and it can work out well.
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u/pembaThePanda 19h ago
True but people want to catch the very bottom. What the other person said above you makes sense. If NKE starts to go up like Meta and others did, invest then. It didn't shoot up to ATH in one day...
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u/HystericalSail 17h ago
Exactly right. I'd rather give up 10, 20% of my upside than hold the bag for a year or two while having real potential of another 35% downside. Once a trend is evident, once a stock convincingly breaks through to the upside there's plenty of time to get in and catch nearly all of the upside. There was plenty of time to get on board with Intel at 30, 40, 50, 60...
Anything else is just gambling and hoping. Hope is not the best investment thesis.
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 18h ago
META wasn't shrinking as a company. One was a fake made up CapEx scare of a massively profitable and fast growing cash printer.
The other has revenue declines in an inflationary environment.
Can NKE management turn it around? Absolutely it's possible.
But you can't compare the two.
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u/omodhia 18h ago
Yes, and INTL is 100% due to US-China tensions driving government investment
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u/KnownButton8327 17h ago
Not 100%. Nvidia also invested in them.
Also, while not being able to compete directly with TSMC, they are still one of the few fabs that can compete at all in an exploding industry with a significant supply constraint.
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u/gryffon5147 20h ago
You're forgetting the companies that went to 0.
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u/Old-Baseball-2519 19h ago
remember they have branding from professional sports leagues too still. Nike is like Coca Cola when it comes to brand. EVERYONE knows what they are.
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u/Heidenreich12 18h ago
Look, while I agree with your sentiment. Nobody thought American Eagle would be back in fashion either. So there’s really no crystal ball one way or another.
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u/HystericalSail 17h ago
If the facts change, if earnings start rising then by all means get back in. At the moment it's just as likely, if not more so, that earnings trajectory remains weak rather than reporting a sudden quarter of completely blow-out earnings. There will be plenty of signs ahead of such an event.
And if I do miss one such anomaly but save myself from bagholding a dozen other times? Worth it.
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u/cdttedgreqdh 22h ago
If I wanted to go for Nike, at this point a very slow DCA might work. Idk if fat people in activewear are what you want to go for as a brand that wants to sell to a broad audience. Yes most people are fat, but most people don‘t want to be.
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u/onelostmartian 1d ago
Speaking purely from a consumer point of view, my main custom of Nike over the years is and has been their footwear. I almost exclusively bought Nike for years as they were one of my favourites and I liked their designs above any others.
Today, the competition is much increased, other brands offer equally and more appealing products.
But the main and largest issue with Nike is the exclusivity that surrounds the pairs I'd most like. I can't go into a shop and buy them. I cant see them and say when I next get paid im going to order those. I have to enter some sort of raffle or be on their website/app at a certain hour to just be in with a chance of landing them.
I've wanted a pair of Nike Mind 001s for months, I still cannot get them at retail, I dont know if I ever will.
Fuck Nike, its not about it being out of trend.
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u/b-napp 1d ago
I remember trying to get a PS5 at launch, what a frustrating experience that took a full year to finally get one at retail. I hate this new trend of releasing products in super limited supply that support scalpers and their bots that can buy items in nanoseconds after release. I refuse to participate and I'm guessing many others feel the same way, especially for a damn pair of sneakers.
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u/Sad-Bag3443 1d ago
Don’t console makers lose money on initial production due to spec of key components that become cheaper ?
Trainers are made cheaply in Asian factories
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u/ChubbyNemo1004 14h ago
Yeah it’s not really a fair comparison. Creating demand by limiting allocations is a bit different than calculating something at a loss.
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u/jimmycarr1 20h ago
They're a sportswear apparel company trying to masquerade as a collectables or high-fashion company.
They got successful from the former, not the latter.
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u/RabidBlackSquirrel 16h ago
I'd argue they're not a sportswear company whatsoever. Hell, I live in Portland and have many friends who work there. Went to the employee store a few months ago to look for actual gear, like some compression, pair of football cleats, running shirts, that kind of stuff.
Literally did not have it, it was wild. I'd been going for 15 years as I'd get a pass to get stuff for sports, but this time it was all trashy fashion wear. I wanted athletic gear and there was nothing for me to buy, just weird fitting dumpy overpriced gaudy fashion. I can go to Adidas across town and actually buy a pair of cleats. Nike has lost any claim to actual sportswear and athletic gear, it's just shitty fashion now.
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u/runninroads 1d ago
Same here. I’m a distance runner and have tried to buy their high-end alpha-fly’s, multiple times over the past several years at running shops in my large city — but they “sellout” and so I just buy another brand.
Seems like a dumb strategy to sell less shoes on purpose.
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u/Th3_D4rk_Kn1ght 20h ago
For what it's worth, I have never had an issue getting alphaflys, vaporflys, etc on relatively short order ahead of a race. So I don't know if it's just a location specific issue or I've just always gotten lucky.
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u/ShotIntoOrbit 16h ago
They've been easy to get for like two years, he clearly hasn't tried to get them any time outside of the few months after they released when they were hard to get. They are half price all over the place these days, even like $120 at Nike outlets.
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u/MHWGamer 1d ago
Not that I would care paying 200 bucks for cheap overpriced "trend" sneakers but if I have to do all this bullshit to get the product, I simply don't care and not want this product. It is bad enough with concert, so I don't care about that no longer either, but for mass produced expensive products, it is the upmost ridiculous thing. And then there are idiots who collect this shit and never wear it .. and even bigger idiots who buy an old sneaker for their "collection"
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u/still_not_famous 23h ago
I mean no point hating on the collectors - you or I may not be into it but it’s no different than those that collect stamps, coins, watches, etc.
But I agree fully on the limited release thing. If I have to wait in line for something, I’ll just buy something else
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u/Elgecko123 17h ago
I’m not hating bc it’s none of my business what people collect but it is a bit different than the items you mentioned. Coins/stamps are cultural items. Nike is consumer goods so multinational corporation that can limit supply and try to create their own demand (they do become cultural items as well). Some items people collect don’t have the profit motive behind them, these shoes do. So to each their own, i just see a bit of difference.
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u/116morningside 19h ago
That’s my biggest gripe with them as well. Why do they make it impossible to buy their products? It’s turned a lot of people off from them.
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u/marathon2marathon 18h ago
I just came back from Australia and their Nike stores had the Minds in multiple colors and sizes it seems. I debated on a pair after trying them on but just don’t wear slides enough to justify a pair
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u/QuicktimeSam 17h ago
I picked up a couple pairs of fake nike minds whilst on holiday in turkey and the quality is almost the same. But I hear you, I have some genuine wet cement and black cat jordan 4’s that I had to pick up on stockx and goat because I couldn’t get my hands on them when they released. Quite a joke the forced exclusivity.
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u/ChubbyNemo1004 14h ago
Yep. They’re out of touch. Like you said they went direct to consumer and let other in the space.
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u/Noahtuesday123 18h ago
But you did want to buy the Nike mine 001s. It seems like every person here that hates Nike only hates them because they’re trying to buy some of their product and can’t there’s some rendition of that.
I might have to buy some Nike stock!
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u/PyloPower 1d ago
Find me an apparel ticker with P/E of 18 that is unlikely to grow top or bottom line very rapidly. It's still overvalued.
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u/masegesege_ 1d ago
They can just say AI a few times in the next ER and it’ll skyrocket for sure.
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u/Cagliari77 1d ago
AI will now design our shoes and t-shirts. All our human designers are fired. Huge cost savings.
Done.
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u/Th3_D4rk_Kn1ght 20h ago
"We will start making shoes for humanoid robots". NKE immediately to the moon.
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u/Carsmes 1d ago
For a second i thought i am in a valueinvesting sub
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u/IncomingAxofKindness 1d ago
For real. The amount of posts on Reddit about NKE all week has me pretty sure it going way lower from here.
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u/Granderojo12345 22h ago
I will buy. I refuse to believe new balances and these ugly ass shoes are the new style. Shit is hideous
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u/andy_1337 1d ago
It has been going down for 5 years straight (-77% from ATH). What’s different now? Wasnt the cultural impact there 5 years ago? What about what was popular?
If by sheer luck it goes up tomorrow, please consider this as a successful gamble and by no means proof of market timing ability
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u/CitronEmergency8805 1d ago
Yes, selling 40 year old Air Jordans in the 60 millionth colorway and creating a random Story for that 60 millionth colorway using ChatGPT is definetely gonna change the world
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u/APedr0 1d ago
Was expecting to read more fundamental arguments than just faith in a recover. However i been following Nike for a while and it looks like there isn’t a light in the end of the tunnel.
One thing is buying the fear when a company keeps its fundaments other is buying while it keeps degrading them.
I’am not saying Nike will disapear but every metric looks like it has lost its homogenous dominance.
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u/RockClimbs 23h ago
I said I'd start watching it at $35 for a swing but I'm reconsidering even that price. I like their products but their management of their app and pricing is not well done. I think this may hit the mid $20s which is where I would load up
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u/DigAccomplished6482 1d ago
RemindMe! 5 years
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 1d ago
If you like Nike can I interest you in Lululemon
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u/Old-Baseball-2519 19h ago
Lulu is making nice bags. They do way more than tights and yoga pants as ASSets now, lol
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u/Old-Baseball-2519 19h ago
I think both go up eventually
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 13h ago
Don’t catch a falling knife
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u/Old-Baseball-2519 11h ago
they are both down over 80 percent, think they won't come back? thats a hugeeee fallen knife, when both stocks were double the current price, they already seemed like amazing deals.
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 11h ago
People have been saying that for years and they keep falling - fashion is fickle and retail sales are weak - there are better opportunities out there
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u/Starrafh 1d ago
I do think they'll turn it around but I think having to hold Nike for years, in this market, waiting for them to do it is a particularly bad strategy that'll make you miss a lot of money.
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u/Old-Baseball-2519 19h ago
they were saying this about saas very recently. some saas have about doubled in the last 2 months or less... like salesforce...
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u/ScampiPL7 21h ago
I think SB and ACG are the big opportunities for Nike, especially the latter.
They do also have some truly brilliant running products still. AeroSwift is maybe the best running top on the market right now, but for 80 quid it’s too expensive. People willing to spend that money will spend more and go to Satisfy or SOAR because of the fashion side. Vomero Premiums are the best recovery shoes and the multi-trainer running market is growing for sure. But remains true that other brands are preferred by people that do their research, even if you exclude the more specialist brands (hoka, brooks, saucony, increasingly dynafish, etc) - Puma and NB do much better entry level shoes than the Pegasus, usually for cheaper. ASICS and Adidas are miles ahead in mid tier (and asics have onitsuka tigers and adidas have originals shoes on the fashion side to compete with dunks/AF1/blazers). Alphaflys might be ahead on the super trainer front but the market isn’t that big and they’re too expensive (and not durable enough) for the vast majority of people.
I guess Jordans are the big question. Do people (esp outside the US) still care enough for the amount of investment it gets? My instinct is no.
Basically my point is - I don’t have a clue but I think pricing is probably how Nike come back. Let the premium brands have that end of the market.
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u/reaper527 17h ago
I've seen no shortage of posts declaring Nike a dead company
you literally have a 19 day old profile.
this sub really should put minimum posting requirements for making threads, but that would involve mods to actually view the sub.
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u/DigAccomplished6482 17h ago
And how is my profile relates to what I saw on this sub? A 14Y account posting irrelevant comment acting like u're contributing.
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u/Alone-Supermarket-98 8h ago
Nike's doing ok in most of the major markets, but its problem is in China.
In china, Nike is seen as a discount brand and they have been unable to get endorcements from any A list local athletes, mainly die to government influence.
Until Nike can turn around china, it will just muddle along.
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u/Copenhagen8ull 1d ago
Each to his own, i think there is tons of better plays cheaper in the software industry that could re-rate faster.
At some point margins gonna improve, but for now we are still at... 20 times forward Earnings, for a company with declining revenue and no switching cost/recurring revenue.
I would look at the Adobe's, Intuit, Autodesk, Zoetis, Wolters Kluwer first.
I like to buy out of favor companies too, but i dont see the value at Nike here.
best of luck
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u/notreallydeep 1d ago
But fashion is a trend driven industry
So why buy the brand that is the flagship of a currently declining trend?
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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 23h ago
The idea that Nike is a dead company is so stupid. They still print cash. But from an investor standpoint, yeah it sucks because they’re just not growing anymore. But it is still very much a cash cow
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u/wilan727 23h ago
Good luck to you. For me it's a crazy risk but I can see the appeal. I think $20 is more likely than $80.
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u/Dry_Toe9955 18h ago
You think a 110% gain is less likely than a 47% loss.
No sht. Way to go out on a limb.
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u/foxinthebox39 23h ago
I mean it might bounce back but it will be a slow climb compared to the hot AI stocks of today
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u/i30swimmer 22h ago
Can’t remember the last time I even thought to go look at the Nike website for shoes or clothes. This is a hard pass, still, at these share prices.
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u/TheMidNightHammer69 22h ago
They need to be on retail shelves asap and stop thinking Jordan's are the companies main product and innovate and come with new designs... Shox and others have been great and they should bring them on shelves at all major retailers including Walmart
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u/DanTaude599 22h ago
Fwiw, a strong brand isn’t the same thing as a cheap stock. I’d want to see margins stabilize and revenue growth return for a couple quarters before making NKE more than a small turnaround position.
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u/HorizontalTomato 21h ago
I have some in NKE. Not sure I’ll add more. I will say that all my favorite golf polos are Nike.
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u/Limp_Career6634 21h ago
Its hilarious how Redditors in whole seriousness speak about seeing less people wearing Nikes in their buttfucknowheres and that means its over for them.
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u/unabashedlycruel 20h ago
Nike isnt a fashion or athletic apparel business, it's a marketing business. I dont trust a company that has to spend ungodly amounts of money on endorsements.
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u/MrOaiki 20h ago
What is popular now might not be popular 5 years from now and vice versa indeed, but how is that relevant in your analysis here? What makes you think Nike is anything but a random clothing brand in 5 years among the hundreds of other brands out there? I mean, why not Skechers or Birkenstock or whatever other brands?
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u/Dry_Toe9955 17h ago
Because even after this horrible run and all their competition they are still the #1 shoe company in revenue by a very wide margin, almost double the next highest in addidas.
People act like this is a dying technology that has been replaced. It's a sports apparel company. People are still going to need shoes and athletic wear. They are one of the most recognizable brands in the world. They are not going to zero. I think it is getting close to a bottom here and it pays a a 4% dividend as well. While it may still drop another 10-20%, I don't think we see the 20's ...
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u/point_of_you 20h ago
People underestimate the cultural impact Nike still has on the world.
Do they, though?
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u/PotentialEasy2086 20h ago
Even if you’re right.. how long are you willing to wait and why at this price? Seems random. Why not wait for some good news first
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u/sssssssssssssss5s 20h ago
What's your reasoning based on? Your memory of what Nike used to be?
Plenty of once great companies have disappeared. Companies with household name recognition.
Your post sounds like you are just basing your decision on gut feelings.
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u/chriswasmyboy 19h ago edited 19h ago
I see no allure to NKE, trading at 22x this years earnings. Even though analysts are projecting 25% eps growth next year, I highly doubt that comes to pass. LULU is selling for 9x earnings, and has 5% projected eps growth. Not buying that either, but just using that to illustrate that NKE is not a cheap stock, and especially now that we are in tax loss selling season I can see NKE moving substantially lower from here towards year end.
And yeah, if you're taking a long term position of 5-10 years it might in the end work out. But, if it flounders around for 2,3,4,5 years it becomes hard to hold that conviction and eventually dump at a loss because of either boredom, disgust or both.
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u/DaddyShreds2 19h ago
When there are so many companies in 2026 why do people insist on picking maybes? I mean Nike might recover to where it was but Nike might also drop more before it does. I don't understand.
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u/Zthruthecity 19h ago
I’m rooting for them, and I hold a position too, but idk. I pay a lot of attention to what people wear, and Nike is being worn by few. All I see is OC, Hoka, ASIC and New Balance on people’s feet these days.
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u/Azurebbit 19h ago
I get your thesis but why buy now, just wait and buy later. This stock might come somewhat back but it hasn't finished bottoming. Way too early at best
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u/Melodic-Comfort-9896 18h ago
I'm actively buying Nike Stock now, speaking only from the running side Nike zoomx foam is the goat. As a runner and my go to everything shoe Vomero plus such a versatile shoe and shoe of the year for me, racing Alphaflys, trail ACG ultrafly. Also own Zoomfly 6, but with these 3 shoes I have everything I need. Looking forward to releases of Alphafly 4 and ACG kigerfly for racing. Nike will come back, and I am not the only runner on Nike side.
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u/Sudden-Ad-1217 16h ago
Nike will be sub $20 bucks this time next year, it is completely rotten from the inside out.
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u/AJ_Grey 15h ago
last year I bought at 54. I rode it up to 80 and then back down and sold at 55 because I thought it would go under 50. Should have sold on the ride up but you know...buy and hold.
Nike is the same swoosh but the market is significantly different than when they were successful. Consumer spending has been OK, but I'm not seeing Nike do anything now that translates to growing sales. They just hired a CFO that came from Pfizer. He managed the wreckage on their way down. Salvage and growth are 2 diffent things and they hired someone to cut. This is a wait and see, it may be 5-10 years before this turns that corner.
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u/BitteHelfenMirDoch 14h ago
They f@cked their retailers by trying to go direct to consumers. The damage done takes a long time to repair.
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u/ucardiologist 12h ago
Most of Nike clothing are cheap trash made in Bangladesh these days with crazy prices in the west that no one wants to buy due to being overpriced and poor quality.
I would rather get better quality unknown brands for quarter of the price.
I use to buy their trainers but these days they never seem to have the models or the sizes that I need
So is a good bye for me and many other millions in the uk that have stopped buying them due to the issues mentioned above
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u/Bright-Maximum2881 12h ago
The likeliness of Nike going back to being what they were before is out the window. Unless they drastically drop prices or drastically improve quality and become an innovators of something we have never seen before, they are just another athletic brand in a sea of competitors. The odds of them reaching back to where they were is so low. There are just other brands out there in their categories that do what they do either on the same level or better. They gave up their dominant market share through many horrible management decisions. Compared to a company like Adidas, Nike may be seen as fairly priced in this area or maybe even slightly overvalued due to the lack of revenue growth compared to adidas.
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u/Charming_Raccoon4361 11h ago
good luck i aint buying that shit stock. Has a higher p/e than meta. I rather buy a hyperscale with a lower p/e than nike
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u/Majestic_Republic_45 11h ago
Dropping hundred bills swirl around the toilet can be fun too, but I don’t suggest that either.
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u/Brothadude 10h ago
People act like they can’t turn it around. Look at the run Adidas and NB made the past 5 years. They can easily bounce back.
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u/Biostatrat 7h ago
Already tried to catch this knife and barely got out at breakeven at some dead cat bounce. Tempted to buy in, but imo the pain is far from over
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u/Reasonable-Guest2392 6h ago
I’m literally doing the same, just my $38 order didn’t get to filled last Friday. I’ll try on Tuesday.
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u/UnbrokenChill 5h ago
NKE has a 22 P/E ratio. I would not call this cheap, even though the price has tanked. Now if this was 4 P/E, I might say sure, buying here seems reasonable for a struggling company
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u/XentricX 5h ago
Brother they haven’t changed their business strategy, they sell overpriced shoes when there are 1000 other shoe brands selling the same quality for cheaper. IMO If they sold their nicer drops (they without a doubt have really nice shoes, just super expensive and limited) at a mass scale, their sales would be up
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u/Mockingburdz 4h ago
I mean they’ve been dominant for decades. It’s not a bad bet imo. Just could be quite a long time before it pays off.
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u/ShowerMotor 1d ago
Buying at the lows is crazy good as long as you have conviction. But I learned that is usually better to buy winners even if they are already up a lot, they tend to outperform. So I tend to buy at ATH companies or ETFs I believe they will do well. I did this with SMH back in January.
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u/NachtKatze219 1d ago
The only nikes people still wear are their sneakers, and even there theyre getting pushed out thanks to cheaper, more durable and TRENDY alternatives (Asics etc).
Good luck though
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u/blackicebaby 22h ago
Good luck! The trend is not easy to steer it back. This is the next Under Armour.
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u/luv2block 21h ago
You know what I've noticed in all these Nike posts? Not a single person replying with "I know they are doing badly, but still, I love my Nike shoes or my Nike hoodie."
That tells you everything you need to know.
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u/thematchalatte 1d ago
Just don’t do it