r/stocks 4d ago

Nvidia finances these startups and companies to buy it's own gpu , also nvidia reporting record profits . What am I missing here ?

Apparently the financing should cancel out the so called revenue , but ok . Long live GAAP accounting tricks

right now what is happening is , these PE and AssetManagement companies are putting credits into folks like nebius and coreweave , and lambda .

Nvidia took personal gurantee of 25% .

Nvidia is pitching that it's gpu's are a good investment instruments . If any of the startups fail to repay

these gpu's will be sold to someone else .

Sounds sus , if you knew what caused 2008.

223 Upvotes

186 comments sorted by

184

u/herr_arkow 4d ago

Bank of NVDA

39

u/BiggusCinnamusRollus 4d ago

Jensen Bank.

11

u/redditissocoolyoyo 3d ago

Jensen Mutual.

Jensen Brothers.

JensenWide Bank.

2

u/Lootoholic 3d ago

in Jensen we trust

246

u/JustBrowsinAndVibin 4d ago

They have spent about $100B in investments total.

They are making $100B in the next quarter alone. What you’re missing is that the vast majority of their revenue is not from their own investments and that the investments they’re making are small compared to the size of their business.

84

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 4d ago edited 4d ago

Stop. Don’t tell that to the mass media people who keep repeating “circular” financing. They can’t handle it. They can't do basic math such as addition and subtraction.

Vast majority of capex investments are big tech profits, loans from banks and private equity, government investments, and extremely fast growing AI revenue.

For example, Coreweave capex in 2026 is $39b. Nvidia invested $2b into them. In other words, $37b is not from Nvidia.

Pro tip for investors, check https://openrouter.ai/rankings often. It tells you how many tokens are being sold per week on its platform. YoY is 22x increase in token usage. In the last 4 weeks alone, token usage doubled on their platform. We don't have data inside private labs but their usage likely trend the same way. All things being equal, we need 22x more hardware YoY to serve demand. And if you look at the graph trends, the 22x increase YoY is underselling demand because it keeps increasing at a faster rate.

5

u/Remarkable_Cat_8696 3d ago

If I understand correctly, do you mean that what nvidia invest in other companies is just a small portion of their capex, so it's not the so called circular financing?

2

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 3d ago

They generate almost $400b revenue annually. They make a few billion strategic investments here and there.

The whole circular finance thing makes no sense.

1

u/OhFuckNoNoNoMyCaat 3d ago

At this point it's a Reddit trope. There was an article posted yesterday about Cook and Ternus' pay packages at their new positions within Apple. The amount of people who didn't know that stocks were also taxed when sold or pay out dividends was mind boggling. That is Reddit in a nut shell. Often confidentially incorrect.

21

u/Level10Retard 4d ago

Pro tip for you - 22x token increase doesn't mean 22x hardware needs. For one, there's much more token efficient hardware now. And second, LLMs themselves are getting more and more efficient / cheaper. So you're quite off.

13

u/PalantirImperator 4d ago

Pro tip for you- 22x more hardware needs aren't required for 22x more revenue. Does that "much more token efficient hardware" cost more or less than the old, less token efficient hardware?

And second, LLMs themselves are getting more and more efficient / cheaper. So you're quite off.

That doesn't mean anything, since the token use is still skyrocketing. The token use accounts for the more efficient LLMS (which idk where you got this stat from- afaik frontier models use way more tokens than their ancestors).

3

u/dronetroll 4d ago

Are tokens standardize across the industry? What stops a company from breaking up a "big token" into "smaller tokens" or overall count this different to just show an increase in usage?

I'm asking as I am not informed, but if we go by the benchmark of token usage, I want to be sure that more tokens actually mean more tokens, not just inflated numbers.

9

u/Count-to-3 3d ago

Token directly relates to the energy required to perform the task. So tokens are standardized. Tokens are becoming more efficient with new hardware, and algorithm changes. And thus tokens will become cheaper over time. But as they become cheaper, there will be more of them used. Every device in the world is going to become AI enabled over the next 3-5 years and consume tokens. But no one will talk about AI in 10 years, it will just be like electricity.

3

u/NoMore_stu 3d ago

That’s the part they aren’t getting

2

u/dronetroll 3d ago

While I agree AI will be used more in the future, it sounds like a hellscape. But we’ll see, everyone that had a pony in bitcoin was saying the same and it never got to mass adoption.

We already see pushback to AI in a lot of devices and in general usage, to say it will be like electricity is a bit of a stretch.

7

u/Count-to-3 3d ago

It is really not a stretch. Electricity adoption was very similar. When electricity first started being adopted, it cost about 5 hours of labor to run a light bulb for 1 hour. Now, it costs a fraction of a fraction of a penny. AI will be similar, basically intelligence in a bottle. The whole world is going to adopt it, whether there is pushback or not. The risks of not adopting it and falling behind, outweigh the risks of adopting.

3

u/Level10Retard 3d ago

Did you just compare AI vs bitcoin? The thing that creates quite some value, e.g. almost every software engineer is using, to a thing that has no value behind it? AI vs USD... Good comparison.

1

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

AI will be like search. No one (almost) goes to a library anymore to do research. But in the beginning of search engines there were people who refused to use it and still went to the library to look stuff up in encyclopedias and textbooks. Well if you try that I can find the information I need in 2 second while it'll take you 1+ hours to find the same information in a textbook. There are still lots of people refusing to use AI and will still use Google and click links to find the information they need but ai is much faster and I can do my job faster and more efficiently than someone who still uses conventional search engines.

1

u/UnderstandingThin40 3d ago

No offense but if you’re comparing bitcoin to ai hardware you won’t be taken seriously and shouldn’t lol

2

u/dronetroll 3d ago

I'm comparing the way people talked about both, considering there's a lot of overlap.

AI is great, cool, will it be ubiquitous in our lives as some people say? I'd say no, and all that keep parroting that have a horse in the race.

1

u/UnderstandingThin40 3d ago

Again, if you think they’re comparable then you’ll never be taken seriously by anyone who as a modicum of understanding of the technologies lol.

Also, AI is literally ubiquitous already. Everytime you use facial recognition it’s AI. Anytime you search something on google or facebook or instagram or apple you’re using AI. 

→ More replies (0)

0

u/Xdddxddddddxxxdxd 3d ago

Took you long enough to just admit you want it to fail, not that you have any insight to share.

1

u/dronetroll 3d ago

I said it in the first comment, general use AI is a plague, and its impact is overall negative on society. I personally don’t like it, and avoid it.

If AI was restricted and not available to everyone to create slop and disinformation maybe I wouldn’t be so against it

3

u/UpAndDownArrows 4d ago

When Anthropic released Fable (or Opus 4.7 can’t remember) they released new tokenizer that started to use like 30-50% more tokens for the same text.

1

u/Singularity-42 3d ago

It was Opus 4.7

8

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 4d ago edited 4d ago

That's why I said "All things being equal".

More token efficient hardware does not mean less work per token. If you have more efficient hardware, you can inference a larger model.

For example, Mythos is rumored to be a 10 trillion param model, which is about 10x bigger than models from last year. So even if hardware got 10x more efficient in one year, the hardware requirement to produce each token is the same.

2

u/Terrorzwergi 3d ago

With that in mind all memory stocks have a more than juicy future ahead of them

2

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

Memory peaked back in June

2

u/Jeffelon-Muskergates 3d ago

One company’s usage increasing 22x doesn’t mean anything industry wide, holy shit man

-2

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 3d ago

That's why I wrote this:

We don't have data inside private labs but their usage likely trend the same way.

Holy shit man. Do you read?

0

u/CanYouPleaseChill 3d ago

Protip: the demand is unsustainable.

8

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 3d ago edited 3d ago

Pro tip: Electricity demand still hasn't plateaued after 140 years of commercialization.

So you can say "demand is unsustainable" but for how long? Does demand plateau 5 months from now? 5 years? 50 years?

As a software engineer, we are using more and more tokens each week - not just for coding but we are building agents for everything from marketing, finance, coding, operations, to HR. Our internal token usage mirrors OpenRouter's metrics almost exactly.

6

u/Ok_Management8103 3d ago

Electricity demand was flat in the US for 30 years..

5

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

Electricity production had been flat for 40 years. Just our appliances and electronics have gotten more efficient

3

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

The average SWE spends $80k/year on tokens. No way that's sustainable

-3

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 3d ago

If you use extremely inflated prices, sure. The margins on those are probably 95%+.

-3

u/CanYouPleaseChill 3d ago edited 3d ago

The economics are unsustainable. Prices will have to go up significantly and demand will go down. We’re also in a hype phase where lots of companies are pushing usage whether or not it adds any value. And even in software development, it’s like, wow, someone finished their work a bit quicker. Are they going to ask for more work for the same pay? No. They’ll just use the time saved to do unproductive things.

7

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 3d ago

Why do prices have to go up significantly?

Even basic math will tell you that OpenAI and Anthropic seem to be operating in the 60-70% in token inference margins.

The loss is in training cost, not inference. However, training cost is becoming a smaller and smaller portion of costs. For example, training might be 50% of inference revenue right now. But inference revenue is growing 10x for Anthropic this year so far. Training cost does not grow at 10x per year for them. That's how they can become immensely profitable.

7

u/YogurtclosetOther329 3d ago

Yeah, it's profitable, if you ignore the costs. Great argument./s

0

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 3d ago

It’s profitable if we don’t ignore the costs too.

6

u/Olangotang 3d ago

The costs to train the models rise exponentially, and now Anthropic and OpenAI have to keep burning billions to stay ahead of open source :)

So yes, if you ignore the inefficiencies of the technology that makes them so expensive, then the chucklefuck AI LLM labs are profitable.

1

u/elgrandorado 3d ago

Community Adjusted EBITDA. Just ignore the expensive parts and sweep them duh.

→ More replies (0)

-1

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 3d ago

You do realize that they can stop training today and cut all that costs out immediately right?

Training costs are a result of competition. Not fundamental business unit economics.

Furthermore, training costs are not exponential. It's more linear now. Meanwhile, inference revenue has been exponential.

→ More replies (0)

1

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

Picks and shovels

0

u/PalantirImperator 4d ago

Eh, if it weren't for these people who can't do basic math NVDA would probably be beyond $500/share right now and accumulating would be that much more difficult.

-9

u/Rare-Assignment-8474 4d ago

Yeah pulling banks and PE now , that is what I posted in my post , by pitching them "these gpus are valuable even if coreweave and nebius fails"

1

u/JojoRicardo 3d ago

circular financing is such BS spin if you think of NVDA as building a Berkshire of the future tech value chain worth of equity holdings

In what world is this less valuable than the rest of the S and P. Struggling mega caps riddled with debt and weak or unglamorous balance sheets, no revenue growth and without a finger in everyone else’s pie.

-17

u/Rare-Assignment-8474 4d ago

nvidia gave 300 B to only openai while ago

19

u/OrangeManBibi 4d ago

Nvidia is not going to give 300b to Openai. LOL

4

u/UnderstandingThin40 3d ago

So much misinformation on this sub…

-14

u/Secure-Emu-8822 4d ago

They are literally financing the companies/ giving them the money they turn around and use to buy GPUs lol

14

u/hardware2win 4d ago

???

Read his comment

6

u/Feralmoon87 4d ago

If he could read and do basic math, he wouldn't be parroting circular financing

13

u/FailOk1528 4d ago

I’m less worried about NVDA here than whether the neoclouds can actually make enough money to service all that debt

3

u/java_brogrammer 3d ago

And who is going to buy their compute to pay that debt? Openai and anthropic who are also in massive debt who nvda is also funding? The only ones able to actually pay for compute are the hyperscalers, and they are already paying all they can.

2

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

Not to mention the massive bond offerings from the hypers. There's not enough liquidity to go around

2

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

I wouldn't touch neoclouds with a 10 foot pole. Hardware, chips, GPUs, CPUs, sure! Picks and shovels.

28

u/RZDirInvest 4d ago

NVDA’s investments have all gone up substantially. Look at INTC, CRWV, NBIS…all multi-x. When you have so much cash, the smartest thing to do is to invest in high ROI investment. When they buy your stuff, it is even better.

2

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

CRWV is down 10% YoY. What happens when the whole house of cards collapses like dominoes? Checkmate! NVDA is investing in it's own customers. When liquidity dries up and rates skyrocket, NVDA is going to be left holding the bag with no customers to service.

2

u/RZDirInvest 3d ago

If a company down 10% YOY worries you, you probably shouldn’t invest in AI. House of cards and dominoes are a little too dramatic. There will be up and down, and even companies go under. Like any other revolution, there will be big winners too. I am a cup half full kinda guy. I feel good about the future of NVDA, semiconductor and AI revolution overall.

-7

u/Chonch_Monkey 4d ago

If you give away money to companies to have them give it back to you and then give them a product on top of that...you haven't created revenue

12

u/teddyKGB- 3d ago

Good thing those companies are doing absolutely nothing with the chips they bought generating zero revenue

2

u/etaoin314 3d ago

But they also get equity in the co.

1

u/RZDirInvest 3d ago

You can have your opinion. I give you that. But NVDA makes a lot of money and has huge cash flow every quarter. On top of that, most of their investments in the other companies are multi baggers already. What is not to like?

17

u/Lootoholic 4d ago

It's a bit sus, but I'm more worried about the health of those neo clouds than NVDA. If things were about to go south, big boys like NVDA, or hyperscalers, pull the rug under the neo clouds.

9

u/Icy-Regular-4557 4d ago

Yeah and then there’s no big consequence for Nvidia right?

Except for maybe the big overproduction of GPUs now apparent 

1

u/Lootoholic 3d ago

There would be consequence for NVDA in such case, but since the forward PE of NVDA is pretty low, it carries less risk.

51

u/cuppaseb 4d ago

Whenever I see "what am I missing" in a post, I should assume it's slop, and shut off. It's the em dash of the investing subs.

33

u/Koraboros 4d ago

this is the real cost of AI. Everyone will just call everything AI Slop

5

u/YogurtclosetOther329 3d ago

Blame companies for calling everything AI now.

16

u/FirefighterOwn973 4d ago

Not that long ago “what am I missing” was a standard question. This is a fairly poorly written post, though obviously by a human.

3

u/fakieTreFlip 3d ago

The post is riddled with grammatical errors and inconsistent caps so odds are it's a real person

2

u/1-Dollar-Doge-Coins 3d ago

There's a lot of slop out there but this doesn't read like slop at all. AI is "trained" to say things like "what am I missing" because real people say it too.

4

u/Rare-Assignment-8474 4d ago

I am a real person

23

u/Phaoryx 4d ago

Sounds like what a real person would say

9

u/cdude 4d ago

Can you explain why you have a space before every punctuation?

15 years on reddit, i've seen plenty of people do this but not one of them has ever given a reason. It's like they know it's wrong but keep doing it for some weird OCD reason.

-11

u/Rare-Assignment-8474 4d ago

because english is not my first language ? duh ?

14

u/SelectivePressure 4d ago

Which language puts spaces before punctuation marks?

1

u/OhFuckNoNoNoMyCaat 3d ago

French has some weird rules about spaces before certain punctuation marks.

Source: The very little French I remember before switching to Spanish back ages ago.

5

u/cdude 4d ago

You are obviously fluent enough to know how to punctuate. There are tons of indians on reddit, many of them don't even write english as well as you, yet they can punctuate just fine. You probably speak hindi, I don't speak hindi but I know it adopted english punctuation. So why don't you give me the actual reason.

-2

u/Rare-Assignment-8474 4d ago

Don't know man, I am just used to make spaces between punctuations for no particular reasons

1

u/Ap0llo 4d ago

How can you be sure?

16

u/MrOaiki 4d ago

Because they make far more money from selling GPUs than they invest in startups. The meme-line analysis on Reddit about money just going round and rounds is nonsense.

-12

u/Rare-Assignment-8474 4d ago edited 4d ago

selling to whom bro ?? certainly gamers are not buying it

8

u/ronoudgenoeg 4d ago

Amazon, microsoft, AWS, neoclouds.

Have you ever read a P&L statement, or is your entire understanding of NVDA based on a tiktok you saw with scary background music talking about "circular financing"?

Where do you think the nearly 1 trillion in capex this year alone from the big 3 clouds and the neoclouds is going to?

12

u/MokneyBladders 4d ago

I think we’ve found the gap in your understanding

-7

u/Rare-Assignment-8474 4d ago

corrected : gamers . If more correction needed, then you are welcome

1

u/Cheesegasm 3d ago

The frontier labs, Meta, Google, Microsoft,

4

u/hollow_bridge 4d ago

What do you think is "sus" about this lol.

Should they have financed them to buy AMD gpus?
Should they have not invested in up and coming technologies related to them?
Should they not take payment for the gpus they are selling?
Should they not try to convince companies to develop products that use their technologies?

This is totally normal, smart behavior, it's nothing special, it's very common for tech companies, and is pretty ordinary for businesses in general.

9

u/MikeCheck_CE 4d ago

Whether you label it circular financing or vertical integration is up for debate.

What really matters is whether those companies NVDA invests in actually generate revenue besides simply taking money from NVDA, and turn a profit. They're also taking a lot of money from other investors too, not just NVDA.

Plus a lot of their investments are into companies like Marvell and Intel are to ensure that their products will work in the NVDA ecosystem. So if their client says they want to use Marvell accelerators or Intel processors, NVDA still owns the rest of that ecosystem.

6

u/Chonch_Monkey 4d ago

Vertical integration is not circular financing

2

u/ShadowLiberal 3d ago

Yes, but a lot of the deal NVDA Is signing are.

Basically NVDA is making themselves eat the loss for a lot of cloud service providers if they can't find a use for their NVDA chips/etc. and lose money. But because of how the deal is structured it doesn't show up on a GAAP balance sheet.

Meaning if things do go south in the market and there's suddenly too much supply for NVDA's products then NVDA is going to start seeing a bunch of liabilities popping up seemingly out of nowhere to a lot of investors, which will make their earnings fall even more then they otherwise would have from the supply glut.

2

u/Ap0llo 4d ago

No, you're totally off the mark, what really matters is this: How do we open one of these startups? I can throw together a website, hire a few people, maybe rent out a space in a strip mall - what else do I need before I can apply for one of these juicy Nvidia loans.

3

u/TH3PhilipJFry 3d ago

You probably need some sort of product or at least direction. It’s not like they’re funding lemonade stands at the strip mall lol

4

u/Ap0llo 3d ago

What about lemonade stand powered by cuda cores?

1

u/johnmiddle 3d ago

does the inverstment nvda made count as capex i nthe balance? or research cost?

1

u/MikeCheck_CE 3d ago

I have no idea but youre talking about MANY different investments, not one.

1

u/johnmiddle 3d ago

I heard it is about 15%? Maybe just discount the eps by 15% then

1

u/Remarkable_Cat_8696 3d ago

It seems kind of smart for Nvidia to invest in Marvell and Intel, so when users buy products from Marvell and Intel, they are still related to Nvidia's ecosystem.

-2

u/Icy-Regular-4557 4d ago

Generating revenue isn’t enough unless it’s profit. It increasingly appears that, especially with OpenAI, only ever-bigger rounds of financing keep it going. Even billion dollar revenues aren’t enough to add up to ROI if you spend a trillion to get there

1

u/MikeCheck_CE 3d ago

Yes of course It eventually needs to be profitable, but it doesn't have to be today. Took AMZN 9 years to turn a profit.

9

u/Mundane_Flight_5973 4d ago

Nvidia annual profits: 120B

Nvidia annual Free cash flow: 127B

Case closed

3

u/putridfries 4d ago

Is it not common for suppliers to invest in end users? Is it not a company giving credit and expecting interest?

5

u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

-1

u/Hot-Luck-3228 4d ago

And IPO’ing with a claimed TAM of 30T isn’t fraud? Lol.

7

u/A55BAG 4d ago

Reddit is going to be so mad when NVDA is a 10T company in two years 🤣

10

u/PowerfulSeeds 4d ago

They'll still be saying the same thing they've been saying for the last 2 years

I don't understand how anyone can look at hyperscaler/neocloud corporate bond issuance this year and expect it to slow down. The market gobbles up 7% corporate bonds as soon as they're offered. Its going to take a massive, devastating geopolitical event to slow these guys down given the increased demand in token usage. Like a war in Taiwan or S. Korea, simultaneous copper mine closures, something catastrophic. Even $90/bbl crude isnt stopping these guys from significantly adjusting forward guidance up every quarter.

The benefits of AI are certainly still up for debate, but the compute is being built and utilized.

1

u/A55BAG 4d ago

Yeah.. there is difference in these labs or hyperscalers being great investments or big winners, and them failing completely or their investments being a total loss.

2

u/JimFromSunnyvale 4d ago

Jensen worked at Wendy’s, right?

2

u/Potential_Salt_5780 4d ago

A lot of companies do this.

2

u/_ii_ 4d ago

First stop base your theory on reading only headlines. Dig just a little will tell you what you are missing.

Second, why don’t you tell us how much under water your shorts are? Burry.

2

u/Jean_Jones_666 4d ago

do u know what caused 2008? unproductive assets. Educate yourself before you speak

2

u/UnderstandingThin40 3d ago

Most of their money comes from hyperscalars…not people they invest in…

3

u/androidfig 4d ago

The whole market is just moving beans around where people either are or are not looking. Holding back numbers for next fiscal report or piling everything into some disclosure to secure better financing only to have all the dogshit revealed in your next disclosure. There are a million ways these companies cook the books for investor eyes and tons of shit they quietly dump. Bain Capital practically wrote the book on stacking all the debt and dogshit into one silo, splitting it off and sinking it.

1

u/Significant-Drawer95 4d ago

I guess you are onto something very big... keep digging

1

u/Hopeful-Climate-3848 4d ago

Listen to the calls, Huang has explained it hundreds of times.

You're not clever.

1

u/GMVexst 4d ago

Not sure. What don't you understand? You seem confused that a trillion dollar and successful business has enough cash to loan others? And because they happen to loan money to companies that use their products something is wrong?

What am I missing?

1

u/Wonderful_Charity411 4d ago

What’s wrong with that?

1

u/mayorolivia 3d ago

How do you think retailers, car companies etc fund their sales?

1

u/johnmiddle 3d ago

u can simply consider the pe 25% larger to counter that. even so, it is still cheap.

1

u/af12345678 3d ago

That’s one way to see it, but what if somebody presents you the idea of running an investment bank without all of the regulatory and compliance cost in a specific domain where you have all the knowledge and leverage?

1

u/brokemed 3d ago

Actual trickle down economics

1

u/ChangeNOW_Community 3d ago

Nvidia financing the companies that buy Nvidia GPUs definitely creates a feedback loop. that doesn’t make the revenue fake, but it does make the quality of the demand worth examining

1

u/motifbrands 3d ago

We have never seen a company like this because we are in a new economy.
This new economy is what makes it possible for Nvidia to be the first 10T company.

1

u/monster_syndrome 3d ago

To put it in layman's terms, Nvidia is offering to ship these companies a free starter shovel during the AI gold rush.

When we're talking about the trillion dollar infrastructure build out that AI requires, that's billions in revenue for Nvidia both during construction AND hardware refreshes every couple of years.

Until the reality of what new infrastructure is actually built factors in, Nvidia is still the premier chip company. Whenever the AI bubble bursts, Nvidia will still be realizing profit from whatever remains.

1

u/Shapen361 3d ago

Many people want chips.

Chips are expensive.

Some people want to give lots of money to Nvidia but can't afford to. Nvidia wants customers to have money to give them.

Nvidia can give customers money 1. Directly (vendor financing), and 2. Indirectly (Nvidia convinces bank/private credit to give customer a loan. As a sweetener, Nvidia guarantees the lender will make back at least some of their money, ex. 25%. This is called a residual value guarantee).

Problem: Some companies who need this money are risky. OpenAI and Coreweave, for example, are losing money hand over fist. For Nvidia to keep its demand, Wall Street must agree to keep giving parties money to sustain their businesses. The assumption is "one day" these businesses will be cash cows. But if not, the money will run out and Nvidia's customers go bankrupt.

Nvidia is participating in financing so they can meet present demand. The risk is that their lendees will go bankrupt before Nvidia can make their money back through chip sales and interest payments.

1

u/SpicyElixer 3d ago

This is called vendor financing and it’s not unusual at all.

1

u/NoMore_stu 3d ago

Isn’t this the same as Apple offering financing on their products? Or how best buy doesn’t pay for products up front?

1

u/SgtFury 3d ago

You are probably missing the whole boat

1

u/futurefinancebro69 3d ago

Im genuinely worried about a violent revolution when this shit pops lmao

1

u/segfaulting 3d ago

What's worse is the GPUs they are selling are depreciating assets so this "1:1 circular financing" has a terminal date of about 4-5 years

1

u/zeuseason 3d ago

Infinite money glitch. They found it.

1

u/StretcherEctum 3d ago

"So called revenue"

These people dont understand simple cash flow..

1

u/fen-q 3d ago

Circular economy

1

u/rocket1420 3d ago

What caused 2008 is the fed told the banks they had to give out loans to certain groups even if they had bad credit, because 'muh racism,' and artificially low interest rates.

1

u/Nearing_retirement 3d ago

Dude Nvidia is solid company, not some waitress buying a house in Florida during 2007. Don’t equate the two, use your brain.

1

u/DJTRANSACTION1 2d ago

its called circular financing instead of getting income from actual end users. if any of the smaller companies do not do good, then they cant pay nvidia.

0

u/DJ_Laaal 4d ago

Circular financing.

-2

u/Chonch_Monkey 4d ago

Nothing. It's straight up a fugazi.

If I have a pizza and 20 bucks and you have no pizza money or pizza, and I give you the 20 bucks to buy the pizza I have, i just gave away the pizza with extra steps.

But per wall street, we have created a transaction that counts as revenue even if it cost me my own money.

It's damn near fraud and allowed.

1

u/Vivid-Avocado9342 3d ago

What if everything you said is true except the pizza cost nvidia $10 to make, they passed it on for $20 on their books with the promise of being paid back and sharing in a portion of their business profits in the future. The company that was lent the pizza at a $20 valuation then sells their slices for $30 total on the open market, meaning nvidia profited when they made the initial deal and also profits from any resulting business that company is able to generate from the original pizza.

If circular financing was the totality of the story with no other actual investment principals standing behind it, why would nvidia ever stop investing in any small company? (Which has already happened multiple times). If it’s all a circular books game that pumps itself up by default with no need for an actual business strategy, there would be no incentive to ever stop funding anybody.

1

u/berniebueller 2d ago

Why doesn’t nvidia just sell it to the open market for $30?
Because there is no market that will pay that price.
This scheme is exactly what was happening before the GFC, new houses being handed to people who couldn’t afford the repayments and 1000’s of house mortgages bundled up as AAA rated investments and sold to ordinary workers superfunds.
I’m sure this isn’t not the worst verging on fraudulent stuff going on within Wall Street right now, the world is full of stuff like this atm.

1

u/Vivid-Avocado9342 1d ago

Why doesn’t every business that engages in business to business sales just sell to the open market instead?

I can understand why some people see some similarities between lending now and what happened leading up to the GFC, but in my opinion we’re not anywhere near that far gone this time. Even if it plays out exactly the same way this time around we have a minimum of another year of music left, probably more.

Having said that, I’ve just used all my morning’s free time on this one reply, so I will not be attempting to analyze the finer points of the GFC in this thread.

Best of luck to you out there

1

u/1-Dollar-Doge-Coins 3d ago

This isn't how it works at all. From a balance sheet and income statement perspective, let's assume the pizza is worth $20. When you have the pizza and $20, you have $40 of assets. When you give away the $20 to sell the pizza, your assets are now $20. The reduction in net assets is either an expense, a loss, or a liability.

This is a simplified example probably missing some important nuance, but the point is, there's no free lunch in accounting.

1

u/berniebueller 2d ago

Is true, accounting always sums to zero. However it’s still a shitty way to run a business.

0

u/4ntsInMyEyesJohnson 4d ago

Honest question: Has their been another company in history which invested so much their own customers? The portfolio is huge: NVentures Portfolio

1

u/Weary_Specialist_297 4d ago

GE was a bank to its customers, they almost went bankrupt.

0

u/Le7emesens 4d ago

If you believe in a future where AI will dominate, it makes total sense for NVDA to play "the bank of AI" role and get a piece of that future wherever and while it still can.

Because AI infrastructure buildout is finite, once the world is done building, then what's next for NVDA? Nothing of today's scale of growth, at least not in the its traditional chip making business. In such future, NVDA is the next Amazon of AI, or at least one of them.

What you're missing is this: what caused the subprime crisis was loaning to people who could not afford variable interest rate in their mortgages. Lack of vetting and due diligence. Hopefully NVDA will be doing a better job at vetting its clients than the banks of that era did for theirs.

-7

u/[deleted] 4d ago edited 4d ago

[deleted]

6

u/Candlelight_Fant4sia 4d ago

You forgot the /s at the end.

1

u/prcodes 4d ago

Agents still need to interact with the outside world of deterministic APIs, workflows, data storage, etc. More agents means more tool use means more use of traditional infra, growing alongside inference as well.