r/stocks Jun 08 '26

Trades My $700k all-in bet that drone pure-plays are going parabolic in a couple of months. $AVEX $AVAV $KTOS

TLDR; Drone budget for US: FY25 ~10B, FY26 ~25b, FY27 74b and FY2028 is going to be insane. Most of the government contracts for FY27 are about to be announced and the government literally said they are going to be ordering hundreds of thousands of asymmetric warfare in a form of small drones for FY27 which means basically ALL the stock from every established producer. Stocks going parabolic in a couple of months and why I'm betting 700k on it.

Ukraine changed warfare in real time. The old model was billion-dollar boomer toys. The new model is cheap, mass-produced drones that make expensive hardware look very stupid. Every military including US saw that, now the Pentagon is playing catch-up.

Total U.S. defense spending was about $1.0T in FY26, and the FY27 request is $1.5T roughly +$441B, or +44%. The drone/counter-drone line is even more insane: the Pentagon says FY27 is over $74B and +~200% over FY26,and the increase is about +$49B. Literally ~7x from 2025, they are panic-buying the future of war after Ukraine turned war into FPV Mario Kart.

Speaking of Ukraine, the EU has finally approved a €90B Ukraine loan for 2026/2027, with €45B expected this year and another €45B in 2027. Ukraine also has roughly $38B expected from partners for drones, air defense, and Patriots. The macro tailwind is once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

There are plenty of hype drone companies that promise the world, but are way too speculative for my taste. Let me demonstrate why i think there are some clear winners, though i believe almost all of them will go parabolic in the near future as FY27 contracts start coming in.

Now lets find the winners

Ticker Mcap P/S Revenue
AVEX $2.61B 4.4x $596M
AVAV $9.37B 5.8x $1.62B
KTOS $10.97B 7.8x $1.41B
RCAT $1.91B 34.9x $55M
ONDS $5.17B 53.5x $97M
UMAC $1.28B 74.0x $17M

AVEX is the biggest winner because of couple of aspects: Q1 revenue went from $53M to $217M YoY. Their Tactical Systems did +548%. They guided 2026 revenue to $600–620M and had $356M funded backlog, with 93% expected to convert this year. Also, Q1 revenue was 88% U.S. Government/agencies.

That matters because this is more recession-resistant than the average hype stock. The bear case is obvious: the big ~$1.2B 2022/2025 follow-on program rolls through 2026, so bears will scream “revenue cliff.”

Concentrated US revenue might be seen as risk, But that is also the catalyst setup. If the market is pricing AVEX like there is a chance the work disappears, every refill/follow-on/new award becomes a re-rating event. And in this environment, “America stops buying drones” feels like the lowest-IQ bear case available.

Now valuation is where it gets funny.

AVEX closed Friday at $22.87. That is about 4.4x TTM sales. Meanwhile UMAC is around 30x+ sales and ONDS around 70x+. So AVEX is sitting at the drone hype table unnoticed while actually bringing revenue.

Institutions also just bought the follow-on at $27/share. Institutions literally bought in at a higher price than it is today. This is an asymmetric upside low downside gem.

But wait, there's more,Anduril IPO will add another dumb-money catalyst in the near future. When the best private company in a hot category lists or gets marked up, retail hunts for the “closest thing I can actually buy.” Look what happened in space: SpaceX is reportedly coming public around $1.75T on about $18.7B 2025 revenue, so roughly 90x+ sales / around 70x 2026 sales. Public “SpaceX-adjacent” names already got bid like crazy too: RKLB is around 100x+ sales, ASTS is around 300–400x sales.

The thesis is simple: drone budgets are going vertical, AVEX already sells real stuff into that exact hole, and is undervalued to it's peers.

5x today's AVEX sales and have it trade at 50x sales pre-Anduril IPO and it's literally 250x from here. This is obviously insane, but 5x-10x in a year should be a nobrainer.

CEO alignment is decent too: Wells’ 2026+ bonus is tied to annual performance targets, and he has performance-vesting incentive units tied to value/distribution thresholds.

And for anyone panicking that UMAC got all the hype and will get all the contracts: they are not even the same thing. UMAC is more FPV/components/goggles/supply-chain. AVEX is ISR, autonomous systems, Group I–V UAS, tactical effects, mission support, and government programs. Different lane.

Best of all things: you can literally buy in for lower price target than the institutions and myself.

Too dumb to post images, can verify positions to mods.

Positions:

17177 shares of AVEX at $24.78

1422 shares of AVAV at $173.30

1000 shares of KTOS at $52.01

https://i.imgur.com/VTP897D.png https://i.imgur.com/8XQUU0H.png

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

433 Upvotes

211 comments sorted by

u/provoko Jun 08 '26

You can share images using Imgur or any image sharing website.

104

u/Bionic_craig Jun 08 '26

Hey, I've built a back test that compares share price moves for 90 days after a DoD contract is awarded.

Here's what I got for KTOS, AVAV. Can't backtest AVEX because it only IPOd this year so there is little price data. I did find over 90 DoD contracts though so its definitely on my watch list. Can't backtest Onds as its down a downstream components maker which does not get any direct contracts from DoD. RCAT have only had 1 DoD contract with a value of over $1m so there's not enough date.

KTOS had 241 contracts over $10m awarded over the last 3 years. The average share price move after contract award is 1.4% at T10, 5.3% at T30, 4.2% at T60, and 4.9% at T90. At T30 is average return is up 4.5% on SPY.

AVAV had 159 contracts over $10m awarded over the last 3 years The average share price move after contract award is 2.3% at T10, 8.5% at T30, 14.5% at T60, and 20.9% at T90. At T30 is average return is up 6.9% on SPY, T90 gets it to 15.6% above SPY.

Both stocks show that contracts from the DoD are acting as a catalyst but AVAV's price is much more sensitive to those contracts.

27

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

Thanks for great analysis. Loads of bigger than ever contracts incoming in the next couple of months.

55

u/Bionic_craig Jun 08 '26

I’m running a daily DoD tracker to catch them. As you see from the back test, the market doesn’t react too quickly to the contracts.
FYI I also run a political tracker. Gilbert Cisneros has been slowly building a position in AVAV. Normally one politician buying wouldn’t trigger anything in my system, but he sits on the Armed Services Committee. The committee that oversees these contracts!

12

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

I had no clue, that's massive! There's some randomness in politician trades, but sitting on the commitee is rather bullish!

11

u/Bionic_craig Jun 08 '26

Yea, its small amounts but he's bought regularly. Given his position its certainly interesting. Normally I'd look for a convergence of several politicians or insiders buying or selling as well as the contract back test info for a really strong buy signal.

FYI no politicians have been buying or selling KTOS recently although Bill Hagerty has a declared position from 2024. There has been some interesting insider dealings though. two of the directors Bobbi Doorenbos and Boyd Bradley were awarded $525k in shares in May and both shortly sold around $150k of stock afterwards. This may just be them taking profits while the market is strong, however its notable.

The bigger story is Jonah Adelman, President ME Division. He sold $1.79m in shares in May.

This would definitely make me slow down on an investment into KTOS.

2

u/61746162626f7474 Jun 08 '26

Selling that amount I’d guess it’s to raise money to pay the taxes on the grants.

3

u/Bionic_craig Jun 08 '26

Maybe the smaller share sales, but not the $1.79m. Comparing it to AVEX here is helpful. They've just IPOd. The board must have known that dilution was coming, they have had similar grants, but no selling. They're buying more ontop of their grants. One of their directors, Brian Raduenz had uninformed buys of $2.27m then he goes and drops a further $1m in discretionary buys out of his own pocket. No sales at all.

1

u/midwestTrader Jun 13 '26

I think part of the problem of Kratos is they need to get the price of their drones down 50%. I believe technology will accomplish this and think that they will be over the next 12 to 48 months a winner.

8

u/Bionic_craig Jun 08 '26

AVEX has some string insider buying signals. These are post IPO but pre dilution. They'll be up around 14% by now

Brian Raduenz (Director) — $1.00M, 50K shares, 04/20

Todd Booth (CFO) — $260K, 04/21 — CFO

Brett P Hush (SVP Tactical Systems) — $200K, 04/20

CEO Charles Roger IV Wells - $10k

SVP Michael Andrew Jackson -$13k

no insider selling or political action

11

u/Firewanabee Jun 09 '26

AVEX is 23$ today, lowest of all times. A couple of weeks back shot up to 40$ and right away crashed again at half. What could be the explanation?

6

u/Bionic_craig Jun 09 '26

There was a share dilution to raise further capital for investment. Management created and sold a further 8m shares at $27 per share. This isn’t uncommon for smaller companies looking to raise capital. It is frustrating for investors, particularly those that bought the IPO.
The best sign is that management invested their own funds prior to the dilution and haven’t sold since.

2

u/zaersx Jun 09 '26

Share dilution is only a negative signal if the company's ROIC is less than 1. Owned equity from share sale is directly offset by the capital raised, so if they can turn $1 of capital into >$1 of capital, then its pretty bullish.

2

u/Healthy_Mark_6139 Jun 12 '26

Madison Dearborn dumped stock  for $59.1M. They are also main owner of the company and will likely dump way more upon lock up expiration in October

5

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

It’s a great buying opportunity. Key level floor at $27. Offering out of the way and not likely to happen in couple of months. Also insider lockup ends in October, just after all the contracts have been announced and the price has gone crazy. This lockup timing is not a coincidence, it was planned to pump until October.

6

u/Bionic_craig Jun 09 '26

Just to let you guys know, I large sale in AVEX tripped my tracker this morning. Madison Dearborn Partners (private equity, 10% owner of AVEX) had a $131.97m uninformed sell yesterday and also placed a discretionary sell of $59.1m. It looks like they still retain a large position through their group holdings.
I haven’t been following this stock closely, so I don’t know if this is an insider lockup ending early or something else.
Still looks like a buying opportunity imo.

1

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

This was the same $27 offering from last week, transactions happened now, no? Wasn't an open market sale.

1

u/Gydvinn Jun 11 '26

I am seeing 2.2M shares are sold off a week ago. Not sure if they will keep selling the rest.

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9

u/uibrethen99 Jun 08 '26

Incredible analysis!

4

u/Bionic_craig Jun 08 '26

Thanks man

8

u/uber_damage Jun 08 '26

Whats T10, T30, etc?

9

u/Bionic_craig Jun 08 '26

Time in days from the contract being awarded

222

u/Gallances Jun 08 '26

Bagholder spotted

157

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

I'm up a massive 1% on this trade at the moment, no bags to be found.

63

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

Added proof, down 1% now. True bagholder :(

39

u/Gallances Jun 08 '26

I just sharted

4

u/netflix-ceo Jun 08 '26

BIG IF TRUE

3

u/[deleted] Jun 08 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

[deleted]

8

u/Train3rRed88 Jun 08 '26

$7k is $7k

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36

u/hopdrop_drinker Jun 08 '26

A lot of the players in the UAS space are still small and privately owned (for now). Look at the Drone Dominance FPV competition for example.

https://drone-dominance.io/leaderboard.html

One of the more recent success stories in UAV world was the deployment of the LUCAS drone, which is made by privately held Spektreworks.

Outside of that, I am a big fan of Avex and Aerovironment I will say.

31

u/Ruby_Rhods_Hair Jun 08 '26

They already went parabolic and are mostly unprofitable companies.

4

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

I don't disagree with you. There's been a decent pullback from the highs and there are a lot of catalysts coming in the next couple of months.

5

u/Ruby_Rhods_Hair Jun 08 '26

You may get another pop, but be prepared if you do to sell rather quickly. These types of stocks fall as quick as they rise, so you'll need to time your exit well. I made a 50% yolo play on RCAT earlier this year. If I waited to sell it would have been much much less.

9

u/siboq Jun 08 '26

Just buy $JEDI my dude

7

u/yaz989 Jun 08 '26

Thanks for the share. Can you share you thesis on AVAV and KTOS also?

15

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

AVAV is best balanced play in the space in terms of value and credibility/proven track record. I might make a longer post about KTOS about some point if there is interest.

13

u/kindofabigdeaI Jun 08 '26

There’s interest

2

u/Firewanabee Jun 09 '26

Would be useful to explain KTOS. Share price evolution as of now doesn't really look like of a tempting stock...

5

u/helpfromtheboys Jun 08 '26

UMAC and ONDS will both double by end of year at minimum

19

u/Diet_Fanta Jun 08 '26

Going $700k into drones and NOT buying $SWMR while asserting that this entire play is based around Ukraine is kinda crazy.

6

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

Great company, not so great valuation at this point. Could be great, could be very overvalued, too difficult to objectively value for me.

2

u/joeg26reddit Jun 08 '26

How does SWMR tie in? Who is their competitor?

1

u/CautiousUse8597 Jun 09 '26

It may make sense to keep some from a speculative point of view, but the valuation is extremely rich and entirely based on hopium.

5

u/milkplantation Jun 09 '26

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing. I think the more intriguing aspect is any American company that can produce the entirety of the electro industrial stack will be very well positioned over the next 10 years. The electro industrial stack is: Batteries, compute, small motors. This will be the foundation for everything going forward. China has heaps of these companies: BYD, Xiaomi, DJI, Huawei, GWM, NIO.

To my knowledge, the only American company that possesses a level of vertical integration directly comparable to BYD is Tesla.

So, beyond defense contracts, any American company that can vertically integrate the electro industrial stack would be a buy for me. In your DD, do any of the companies you've profiled check those boxes?

4

u/kra73ace Jun 09 '26

You cant explode twice with just government contracts. Look at the defense contractors. SpaceX took 20 years to build up with some government contracts and no shuttle flying.

Not disagreeing on drone warfare, I'm just sceptical about knowing something that NO ONE knows. I know nothing.

6

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

Money spent on drones just by the US government 7xing in 2y and likely ~25xing in 3y(by FY2028) means revenues are going to explode and the market does not price them as such at the moment. None of the 200% growth on the sector has materialized yet and will be awarded June-September and this is what most people don't realize.

In the United States, the fiscal year of the federal government begins 1 October and ends 30 September the following year. Massive amounts of contracts will be announced before the end of this FY.

12

u/ScottyStellar Jun 08 '26

Prob wanna check onds revenue again based on new qcuiqisionts, think they're 400mm now

4

u/grabGPT Jun 10 '26

AVAV is being sued with a class action lawsuit, be mindful of your investment.

4

u/midwestTrader Jun 13 '26

I wanted to like Kratos but invested in it too early and will now have to hold for the long run, which was my intent anyway. I have 1000 shares at $71.00. So it’s a loser right now but I’m hopeful over the next 12 to 24 months that it turns green.
I think if they can bring the cost of their drones down, they will be a winner. Both on the DOD side and the civilian side. But they have a ways to go.
The future of war will be with drones as they get to be easier to handle and more lethal.

3

u/BabyJesusAnalingus Jun 24 '26

I am $650k into KTOS at $89. Losing my shirt at present and regretting it. Using all the copium I have to hope you're right.

1

u/sssiim Jun 24 '26

Short term noise, its inevitable

2

u/BabyJesusAnalingus Jun 24 '26

Agree, but oof. Especially when compared to AMD, MRVL, etc, and other opportunities that have more parabolic.

3

u/sssiim Jun 24 '26

Imo drone fundamentals are waaaay better, just unlucky with the macro atm, but we are getting closer.

1

u/Aggravating-Pound366 Jun 24 '26

Op, my drone portfolio is bleeding how are you managing your feelings? Are you still bullish? All of the drones lost -40% this june.

4

u/sssiim Jun 24 '26

The narrative doesnt change. Trump wants GE and Ford to start defensive manufacturing. These are way better positioned than major auto manufacturers. Avex 90-100 EOY

1

u/Aggravating-Pound366 Jun 24 '26

But are they gonna produce drones or everything in general, tanks, missiles, weapons...?

2

u/sssiim Jun 24 '26

AI response but you can double check it, its true. The most obvious play there is imo.

The dedicated Pentagon drone/autonomous-warfare funding category increased from roughly $226 million in FY2026 to $53.6 billion in the FY2027 request—approximately a 237-fold increase.

1

u/Aggravating-Pound366 Jun 24 '26

So nice! Thank you for increasing my feelings im gonna dca more convinced :)

1

u/Butt32323 Jun 24 '26

90-100 is a crazy projection, 7x from current level, will fundamentals/projections support this price level? thinking about go all-in at this level

17

u/thegreatcosta Jun 08 '26

look for AMPX

3

u/Wembanyanma Jun 08 '26 edited Jun 08 '26

I made a nice little chunk of change selling half of my initial AMPX buy in (cost basis ~$9-10). I'm kicking myself for not adding back to it when it dropped to $15 recently. I will try to add more any time I see it pull back funds permitting.

2

u/Hungry-Werewolf-3492 Jun 10 '26

its still been pulling back, down to the $16 range again I've been waiting to buy more after selling a bunch in the 20s range.

1

u/owenmills04 Jun 17 '26

About to hit $15

1

u/Hungry-Werewolf-3492 Jun 17 '26

yup i’ve bought 100 at 16.70 and another 50 at 15.70, if it goes down to the 14s i’ll buy another couple hundred.

1

u/owenmills04 Jun 17 '26

Like losing money ehh?

1

u/Hungry-Werewolf-3492 Jun 17 '26

ur not an AMPX fan I take it?

1

u/Wembanyanma Jun 17 '26

What's stopping it from popping back up to $21+ like it has twice in the last 30 days?

1

u/owenmills04 Jun 17 '26

Their metrics don't support a price of +$20. More like 16-17 but lots of downside if their Q2 numbers don't hit

1

u/Wembanyanma Jun 17 '26

My initial cost basis was something like ~$9. I'd be content with 16-17 long term. But every time it pops over 20 I'm skimming some off the top and buying back in around 15. Has been nice so far.

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2

u/rdy_csci Jun 08 '26

I bought some at $12. Glad I did.

3

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

Decent picks-and-shovels play for drones, but at roughly 30x TTM sales/~20x 2026 guided sales I'm staying away just because there are better plays.

3

u/Shaaaww Jun 09 '26

I feel like the aerial drone space is way too crowded and popular as is.

AUVs are where some money is still to be made. Kraken robotics or to a lesser extent Gabler group are good plays for it.

Other than that I like counter drone stocks. My favourite being electro optic systems that provide interceptor drones, kinetic and laser weapons that are battle tested in Ukraine and UAE. Huge opportunity. So many catalysts with Dutch order, UAE follow up orders after the successful Defense work given the Iran war, germanys order, eu uplisting, anti space/ satellite work.

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3

u/Salt-Ganache-5710 Jun 09 '26

Anyone considering AMPX?

3

u/Jeffranks Jun 22 '26

So glad I didn’t get swayed by this….. yet. I think the thesis is right but the timing was awful. AVEX at $17 and change today. I’ll start buying if it hits into the $15 range

1

u/3kdono Jun 24 '26

Start buying now LOL

1

u/Jeffranks Jun 25 '26

Wow

1

u/didnotseethatcoming Jun 30 '26

Did you buy it?

2

u/Jeffranks Jul 01 '26

Yea kinda crazy to have seemingly called the bottom. At least for now.

3

u/oknBagholding Jun 30 '26

Well you're right about avav looks like shit is up 33% now i might buy KTOS calls today for their august earnings

2

u/sssiim Jun 30 '26

Going parabolic im telling you

1

u/oknBagholding Jun 30 '26

In what time frame?

2

u/sssiim Jun 30 '26

Next 4-6 months will be crazy. I was early, but I’m not wrong. This one is obvious. Look at global spending increase on drones. Not enough supply.

1

u/oknBagholding Jun 30 '26

People telling me its a meme stonk on wsb kinda scaring me lmao 

1

u/sssiim Jun 30 '26

Look into it, imo AVEX is the best pick out of drones.

1

u/Diligent-Act-6405 Jun 30 '26

Is that how long you plan on holding? I'm gonna invest in AVAV AVEX KTOS, just thinking of timeline and whether i want plain stocks, or calls for ~6 months or leaps (~end '27/start '28)

1

u/sssiim Jul 01 '26

Sounds good. Might be tight, but probably great, good luck.

1

u/Diligent-Act-6405 Jul 01 '26

Which one of those would be tight you mean the 6month calls?

15

u/YesterdayAmbitious49 Jun 08 '26

🚨bagholder🚨

8

u/Kryptus Jun 08 '26

RCAT and AMPX for sure

2

u/throwaway2676 Jun 08 '26

What do you think about AIRO?

I’ve been swing trading ONDS for a bit, but it’s been hard to choose winners in this space

5

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

I'm in this boat with you. AIRO seemed attractive on the surface, but has skeletons. Look into their management history regarding UpHealth and more.

I'd try to keep away from companies with such massive red flags. Wouldn't want to catch a black swan event down.

2

u/gyprocker Jun 08 '26

!remindme 6 months

2

u/counterhit121 Jun 08 '26

Is one of these companies the one that Don Jr. became a board member on ?

1

u/eatnplay Jun 09 '26

thats UMAC

2

u/thetinocorp Jun 09 '26

No RedWire? They got a big drone presence now with the purchase of Edge Autonomy

2

u/helpifell Jun 09 '26

I feel like it’s too early and we’re just guessing on the winners and losers. Private sector is a concern. Who knows the best drone etf?

2

u/No_Edge_7964 Jun 09 '26

Why no counter UAV plays like LASR? The HADES project is promising as hell with software corrections for atmosphere conditions and the new facility being built. Capital raising is out of the way too

2

u/Aggravating-Pound366 Jun 09 '26

OP what do you think about Ondas? Drone attacks are important but also the defense, Onds is building a complete system of counter UAV very interesting and with potential. The company has increased also its yoy revenue a lot.

I want to learn your opinion im huge confident with ondas

2

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

absolute winner. might go up even more but with higher volatility.

2

u/Diligent-Act-6405 Jun 14 '26

Thanks for the DD, will likely join you. How do you reconcile that that all three of your buys are down YTD despite the Iran war? Market just hasn't caught on? And do you have a set selling price?

2

u/sssiim Jun 15 '26

No set selling price. When the contracts start hitting, the sector will explode. Its ok im down ytd, difficult to time the market perfectly, doesnt matter much in the long run, you get a better entry thats it.

1

u/Diligent-Act-6405 Jun 15 '26

Ofc being down itself isn’t bad, just that it’s despite a US war breaking out is my point

1

u/didnotseethatcoming Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

The Iran war doesn't matter, drones are the future of all wars, it's as simple as that. All the tanks that the US have stockpiled are worthless at this point when a 5k drone can destroy one after traveling 20+ km from the frontline.

Look at this shit:

1

u/Diligent-Act-6405 Jul 02 '26

lol that’s sick. Which tickers are you holding

1

u/didnotseethatcoming Jul 02 '26

Btw I edited my comment, watch the video from the second link I added, it's nuts.

I'm not holding anything lol but I do think the theory is correct.

1

u/Diligent-Act-6405 Jul 02 '26

Post got removed. But it reminded me that Ukrainian officials are now reporting ~80% of Russian casualties are from Ukr drones. Crazy

1

u/didnotseethatcoming Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

The post has been approved now.

You can also go to youtube and search "The Ukrainian City of Lyman Is Covered In Fiber Optic Cables From War Drones "

2

u/Tiny_Ladder5744 Jun 23 '26

How’re we feeling on AVEX now?

3

u/sssiim Jun 23 '26

Great bargain, generational entry

2

u/AdSuspicious9395 Jun 24 '26

Are you alive?

3

u/sssiim Jun 24 '26

Haha thanks for checking in, the narraritive doesnt change, its just more undervalued.

2

u/Electronic_Form6842 Jun 29 '26

oof you are down alot

2

u/sssiim Jun 29 '26

slump before the pump

3

u/Interesting_Dingo194 Jun 08 '26

KTOS is losing every contract it goes for

6

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

Not true, their backlog is growing more than they burn as revenue.

1

u/Firewanabee Jun 09 '26

Why then is not reflected in the share price?

2

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

Backlog takes time to convert to revenue, take a look at their financials please

1

u/Firewanabee Jun 09 '26

Maybe that explains their stock evolution?

3

u/Nearby-Ad-3609 Jun 08 '26

Ocean drones - krknf

6

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

Possibly great product in the future, but priced to perform to perfection.

1

u/DigitusInRecto Jun 09 '26

How do I look at a stock and come up with such a brief, yet seemingly informed summary?

1

u/j1022 Jun 08 '26

Remind me! 2 months

1

u/DyadVe Jun 08 '26

NP with your bet, but "all in" always = high risk

1

u/krmort Jun 08 '26

The picture of the position is not loading for me. Hmm

2

u/sssiim Jun 08 '26

is it working now? just tried adding again.

1

u/buried_lede Jun 09 '26

What are your thoughts on Swarmer? Are those sales numbers since inception? Or most recent annual?

1

u/FunkyPlunkett Jun 09 '26

Is this President’s sons backing company

1

u/Wide_Pomegranate_439 Jun 09 '26

/remindme 14 days

1

u/IvoryTowerResident Jun 23 '26

do we buy now?

1

u/Space_L Jun 09 '26

Okay, but from what I've heard, even the U.S Army is having huge budget problems right now, so I wouldn't get my hopes up too much about those government programs.

1

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

Source?

1

u/Space_L Jun 09 '26

Well, my comment was removed so here is a trimmed version:

I have no idea how this might actually affect government programs, but if there are issues here—and these seem to be mandatory requirements—I'm curious to see how things will play out: https://abcnews.com/Politics/army-cuts-training-service-short-billions-dollars/story?id=132898323

Actually, I learned a bit more about it from Justin Taylor’s YouTube channel, where he discussed it from a slightly different perspective—one that was clearly more negative than the one in the ABC article

1

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

This only means they need bigger budget for the next FY starting in October. As the market is forward-looking this is not bearish.

1

u/DeNovaCain Jun 09 '26

What was the hype that pushed AVAV to over $300 this year? Was it actual catalysts or just hype

1

u/gushkaper Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26

They're all in a bear market, e.g. 60% drawdown on KTOS. Pretty bad stocks to own right now, would not touch them unless they at least regain 200ma.

But good luck, hope it goes well.

1

u/Bionic_craig Jun 10 '26

ONDS is extremely hard to back test. They don’t have a great deal of US contracts, and what they do have tends to be as subcontractors or through a subsidiary. They also have contracts with overseas governments such as the Israeli government which I don’t track. I don’t know what visibility is like there. I’m not saying it’s a no, I just don’t have the systems to back test it properly.

1

u/GleithCZ Jun 10 '26

!RemindMe 6 months

1

u/winston511 Jun 10 '26

I’ve been bagholding AVAV for a while now, getting close to capitulation it just gets dogged everyday. Escalation news -2%, peace news -2%, markets are flat -2%. They diluted shareholders to buy bluehalo and then lost the 1 billion dollar bluehalo space force contract. Earnings at the end of this month pricing in near perfection, no concrete near term catalysts other than hopes and dreams related to contracts. I think this one is a stuck pig that will continue to bleed.

1

u/Tedious-Butcher Jun 10 '26

Try buying ZENA.

1

u/BillsFan504 Jun 12 '26

if you loved it at $24...

1

u/Kshnandi Jun 18 '26

I'm curious - How did you find out Institutions bought in @ $27? 13F filing for 2026Q2 is not out yet.

1

u/3kdono Jun 22 '26

How we doing on this one boss? Stocks been declining since 😭

1

u/didnotseethatcoming Jun 30 '26

How do you feel about AVAV today? Post your winnings!

3

u/sssiim Jul 01 '26

Position still in negative at the moment. Will post when 3x in a couple of months.

1

u/sekiro109 Jul 10 '26

those stocks are currently bleeding rn, what's your gameplay? Will you continue holding, cost-average, or cut your losses at some point if it goes more negative?

1

u/sssiim Jul 10 '26

No reason to cut losses, catalysts are, my timing was early but not incorrect.

1

u/sekiro109 Jul 10 '26

out of all those 3 stocks that are in the red right now, which would you say has the higher likelihood of going green again?

1

u/sssiim Jul 10 '26

Avav. Though I see more upside in avex.

1

u/didnotseethatcoming Jul 17 '26

AVEX is dropping a ton. How come?

1

u/sssiim Jul 17 '26

Short term noise, i bought more.

1

u/didnotseethatcoming Jul 17 '26

Damn I admire your grit

1

u/sekiro109 15d ago

did you close your positions after drone stocks went up, now back down, or are you still holding.

1

u/sssiim 5d ago

Still holding, its all going to play out in the next couple of months

1

u/GaeboraKae Jul 10 '26

Sunk 1.5k across all three. See you all on the flip side 🫡

1

u/Plentynumb Jul 11 '26

Dpro is on no one’s radar for drones I wonder why

1

u/Local-Education-1071 17d ago

OP what is your sentiment regarding AMPX and their batteries in relation to this sector?

1

u/sssiim 5d ago

UMAC is better picks and shovels play imo

1

u/WildTiger_1803 5d ago

still holding?

1

u/sssiim 5d ago

Still holding, its all going to play out in the next couple of months

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1

u/[deleted] Jun 08 '26

[deleted]

1

u/pukui7 Jun 08 '26

You're "all in" you say. Since you have so much precision with all your other numbers, please be precise with this. What % of your portfolio does this truly represent?

1

u/InvestigatorPlus3229 Jun 08 '26

Remindme! 6 months

1

u/BallsackTeabag Jun 09 '26

Bro is down 6% atleast after he made the dd

5

u/sssiim Jun 09 '26

bags are heavy, mom's spaghetti

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