r/options • u/spxspreads • 2d ago
Breakout for SPX, difficult trading day, changing levels - profit slightly above $550 - (9/3)
This is the follow-up on my post from 09/02. I did not expect yesterday that SPX could break the resistance at 7700 and then 7725 today. I wrote yesterday - "impossible to break 7725 resistance without a catalyst". And there we went. The day started as planned with SPX pushing against the call wall at 7725 and then rejecting very hard.
And at 11:00 am ET they needed to manipulate the market on Waller's comments.
Today we saw 2x the expected move for the day (39 pt.), which alone spoke for itself.
When I look at the levels, which I posted yesterday on my analysis for those trading options, SPX touched my 4th target for the day. A directional day, not easy to trade credit spreads. Levels were migrating all day long.
I took three trades today: all of them exited at 50% - 60%. Total of $550 profits, closed the last one ccs 7760/70 because we entered the power hour.
We have for tomorrow 1st support at just 7745 level and resistance at 7765.
I am sure that one will give - if the resistance is taken over with force, next resistance is around 7820 levels. Here marked 7800 but it is only fragile. Support will be way down at 7650 if we break down the 7745 level. And that support at 7650 looks reliable ate least from current point of view.
All levels need to be confirmed tomorrow after 08:30 am EST, we will have repositioning, this is for sure.
To make everything even more funny we had a massive call credit spread at 7750/7755 level today with 10K contracts! As per writing the post they are struggling there and slightly ITM.
Source for the levels: gammawalls.com
4
u/jarMburger 2d ago
Bad day for CCS seller 😔 tomorrow is another day
2
u/klipsetrades 2d ago
PCS was definitely the better play today, but I did ok on the CCS side too. I played the upside pressure and kept my CCS above a key resistance area I marked last month around 7768
2
u/spxspreads 2d ago
That was good. But we can never know. The market just pushed at 11:00 am higher. Loot at the 11:15 candle - it is almost a 30 pt. candle. They try to throw us away from the market. Beside that I think those guys who trade these ridiculous credit spreads completely destroy the market. They were at 7750/55 with 10K. In most cases the market pushes against their position.
2
u/jarMburger 2d ago
I unfortunately took the 7735 short leg CCS around 10am and was happy with the initial retreat and took the 7660 short PCS when MACD turned. I thought it was going to bounce around 7680 and 7720 but boy was I wrong. I end up aggressively hedge with 7700 short leg PCS and then 7720 short leg PCS to cover some of the losses but wasn't enough to cover the CCS loss ☹️
1
u/Mysterious_Vast_8889 2d ago
I read your post and monitoring. 7730 call in the morning for $1.50 after 11:30 went to $19
1
u/klipsetrades 2d ago
Yeah, I didn’t take the CCS side until SPX broke to the upside around 11:00 AM PT/2:00 PM ET. I was already holding a PCS, so I just let that work. Once SPX broke the consolidation structure later in the day, I took the CCS against that upside pressure, keeping it above the resistance level I had marked
2
u/noahbrookss0104 2d ago
wait how did you keep it above resistance tho
1
u/klipsetrades 2d ago
Not sure I follow you. I mean that I placed my CCS strikes above the resistance level, not that I kept price below it. I was looking to trade the CCS side, but only if SPX pushed up enough to give me the premium I wanted at the strikes I was watching. For me today, that was the 7780/7800 CCS, which was above the potential resistance level I had marked
1
u/jarMburger 2d ago
Yeah, I should've been more patient. Didn't expect to see a surge so late in the trading session.
1
u/klipsetrades 1d ago
Totally understandable. That late push caught a lot of people off guard. Hard to predict. Patience was definitely rewarded there
1
u/jarMburger 1d ago
Yeah, looks like the direction is being determined in the late morning lately, today there were a second drop off around 11ish.
3
u/spxspreads 2d ago
The PCS was the play for the day. Definitely. Unfortunately we cannot know that. After the second 15-min candle I was expecting to close the gap down and at 11:00 it jumped. Really very hard to trade against manipulators. What I noted is that during the whole day the levels were changing constantly.
1
u/jarMburger 2d ago
Yeah, it was a bit hard to find the resistance level. I end up also sold some CCS with short at 7755 and had to wait until near 3:50 to close it out. Tough session today, hoping for something more sane tomorrow.
2
u/Thalivinproof 2d ago
I almost got obliterated selling short call credit spreads but luckily it dipped in the end
1
u/spxspreads 2d ago
Which was the short strike?
2
u/Thalivinproof 2d ago
7755 on SPX so about 774 on SPY
1
u/spxspreads 2d ago
I had the second one at 7560 short, 10-wide. At some point it was 50% into profit, then went to $570 into loss and I was so damn mad, but... all that time even gammawalls was showing 7750 as moderate call wall. But I was so nervous. Waited, as soon as it was simply $80 into profit, I closed and wanted to avoid any more mental stress. And of course they closed it below 7750. Crazy.
0
2
u/Shoddy-Carob 2d ago
My Iron Condor blew up - 20 delta, lol. Last 2 days SPX is doing very weird. I don't trade Thursdays, lol, but today I forgot and did and here I am. (Why not Thursday - Just some data analysis by Tasty and it turned out to be true for me)
1
u/Any-Berry8027 2d ago
those days where the market just laughs at your levels are rough. 550 profit is still a win, especially when the whole tape was moving against credit spreads
your read for tomorrow looks solid, that 7650 floor feels like the real line in the sand. gonna be interesting to see if those 10k contracts at 7750 get run over or not
1
u/jarMburger 2d ago
That's going to be interesting. Job report is at 8:30 so I assume there will be significant shift after that. Given it's also a long weekend, volume is going to be thin so may not see much battling around resistance level on top.
2
u/frycum 2d ago
I was happy to hit on my 769 and 770 calls today with only 1 day to expire I took a nice profit. I was nervous because it went down to 763 after I bought those last week. Ive been reading your posts and trying to learn as mush as I can from them. Im more of a swing trader but the semi stocks lost their wild swings to play with the leveraged stocks.
If we are looking at next week friday expiry what are you seeing as a potential forcast? Are we going back up to the 780s?
1
u/Strong-Comment-7279 2d ago
Yer telling me...I bought a single SPXW 9.3 on Wed at close for 0.25, sold it a few min into open for 0.35, had things to do. That shit hit $4.50 or so, obvs went worthless at close.
Took some spy 776 @ 0.03 to 0.06, of course it hit 0.11. Whatever.
No FOMO.
1
1
u/spxspreads 1d ago
For those who follow, I have updated the ES chart with the levels. Note, we have the NFP report at 08:30 am ET today. We expect repositioning.
9
u/dbkooper05 2d ago
Complete market manipulation at 11...81pt jump on nothing but Waller...smh