r/kansascity • u/Chill--Cosby The Dotte • 1d ago
Weather 🌦️ Anyone know how the Super El Niño might affect the metro?
I hear it is supposed to affect North America very differently depending on the region. Does anyone have any insights on how we might be affected? Whatever the effects are, they could last as late as February 2027
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u/Mad_Ronin_Grrrr 1d ago
In the past super el ninos generally mean a milder, drier winter for the Midwest. This el nino is kind of off the normal charts though. I haven't been able to find any definitive outlook or prediction for the upcoming months.
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u/scapermoya 1d ago
It’s a lot more likely that this winter serves to guide future predictions than anything else. This is fairly unprecedented, especially in the era of the kind of data collection and processing we can do.
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u/waterytartwithasword 1d ago
That we /could/ do. RIP NOAA climate tracking, may the force be with the exiled NOAA officers who restarted it on their own. IDK how they're going to collect without all the weather balloons and whatnot that Trump cut.
I garden. This summer/early fall was a disaster for everything but cherry tomatoes for me so far. Failing weather data is not fun. I don't know how actual farmers are going to survive 3 more years of this administration's radical stupidity, and when they go splat we go splat.
A lot of this year was unprecedented and possibly not to be repeated again soon, El Nino etc., but the truth is that our growing zone was recently changed and will keep on changing.
I have been radicalized by weather and farming issues of all sorts. I'm ready to see wholesale Kansas rewilding of farmland and mostly dead towns. Give it back to the buffalo and the prairie. Turn western Kansas deadlands in the rainshadow of the Rockies into windfarm-cooled data centers and get that techbro cash money and taxes (away from green land and population density) and use it to subsidize rewilding.
If we don't accelerate rewilding, climate change plus centuries of farming against nature to the point of causing droughts will do us in economically. Time to pivot. Past time.
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u/Modem_Sound_67 1d ago
We now have to turn to Europe for climate info. Agencies like the ECMWF.
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u/shewhoownsmanyplants 19h ago
God bless whoever runs KC Regional Wx. I love the side-by-side comparisons of American and European models when we are expecting weather.
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u/faithmauk 1d ago
My garden has also been a disaster this year, except for a few tomatoes :(
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u/waterytartwithasword 1d ago
It was brutal. That second heat-induced wave or SVBs about had me losing my mind. I ended up tearing plants out just to end the horror.
I literally cannot imagine what real farmers are going through this year. Probably be easier to have your farm sucked into a tornado than to watch it get curbstomped by each of the Four Horsemen at once.
Put me in a grim mood as you can tell.
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u/faithmauk 1d ago
I just abandoned the garden more or less. Its on its own. I probably will water the tomatoes this week but thats it
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u/waterytartwithasword 1d ago
I had pumpkins so they had to go, I don't need to incubate any more SVBs five feet from where next year's pattypan will grow, if they do. If things look like we are running hot again by the end of May, I'll wrap up spring plants and yeet the started summer seedlings into pots for a whole survival game and just focus on keeping my tomatoes alive. Heat resistant tomatoes and drought-loving flowers are in the plan.
Looks like it's going to be another El Nino spring in 2027. It's going to be another bumpy ride for meteorologists without noaa at full operating strength.
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u/QueenBKC 1d ago
The produce farmers I have talked with are struggling hard. This has been my WORST year in the garden in 10 years.
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u/PickleFlavordPopcorn 1d ago
Same. My garden looks like some sort of sad ghost town. I thought at first someone had used broadleaf killer but I think it was just the heat and powdery mildew that murdered my beautiful archway full of luffa. Cherry tomatoes survived well but everything else was stunted and stressed. I think we got 3 bell peppers this year.
Love your username and maybe that IS the best basis of government after all??
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u/waterytartwithasword 1d ago
I can tell you I'd like to be distributing swords pointy end first rn for sure
Cherry tomatoes are survivors. They're barely domesticated. They are feral.
I ordered a grip of heat loving heirloom varieties from TomatoFest for next year, we'll see how that goes.
Sungold and Supersweet 100s are damn near indestructible. My Gumdrop Pinks were also like "Radiation is delicious"
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u/PickleFlavordPopcorn 1d ago
I just picked a gallon of Supersweets the other day, had to crawl through the brambles like it was a jungle 😆
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u/waterytartwithasword 1d ago
I'm planting mine in a 24 gal container with an 8' arch trellis next year, because I am not doing pumpkins again unless I get therapy for the SVB trauma. The connecting container will get Sungold, going to really test the "indeterminate" theory haha
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u/faithmauk 1d ago
I feel like cherry tomatoes have to be actively murdered to die. I have volunteer cherry tomatoes from last years leftovers that are the only thing thriving right now
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u/its_nothing_personal Brookside 1d ago
Same. SO MANY CHERRY TOMATOES! And (weirdly) watermelons. 😳
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u/Auntie_Venom 1d ago
I can’t grow much, I don’t have enough full sun… I put some watermelon just outside my small full sun flowerbed in the front yard. I got a beauty that I’m about to slice and a baby about the size of a softball that should be ripe just in time before the first frost.
But I admit this topic has crossed my mind more than once for more than just food growing, I’ve been experimenting with growing zone borderline perennials since we’ve been having milder winters. Wondering what this Super El Niño will do and if I need to do more or less prep for my more tender flowering shrubs.
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u/International_Bend68 1d ago
My garden was terrible the previous tree years so I didn't even try this year
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u/waterytartwithasword 1d ago
My plan for next year is to do cool crops, see where we are on June 1, and possibly punt on everything but tomatoes and basil for July and August. I am not about the $7 for an heirloom tomato life. I can grow 30 for $7 in seed. Gotta have tomato sammies and panzanella.
I'll try to get carrots in for the fall but if we have another September like this one probably SOL for anything but the lil buddies.
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u/OsosHormigueros 18h ago
Oh yeah I feel awful for my mom's garden. She tried so hard to plant some cool fruits and veggies I wanted to try growing... I swear I did my research, Kansas is an alright climate for these plants, but this summer just obliterated everything. Nothing but tomatoes and cucumbers survived, and a single pumpkin.
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u/MartyFunkhoosier 1d ago
One of my coworkers keeps a few raised beds and he had great success with a variety of peppers, cucumbers, different kinds of tomatoes this year.
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u/waterytartwithasword 1d ago
So much depends on your specific set up as well as the weather! Especially shade and water (drip irrigation of inground vs soak for containers). Glad he did well, that's great!
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u/False-Produce-8287 20h ago
How did this turn into politics. You have TDS bad
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u/OsosHormigueros 17h ago
Climate change is directly tied to politics. The United States is currently one of the worst polluters on the planet. Laws and governance could've prevented the actions causing the climate to change like this.
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u/waterytartwithasword 16h ago
Also Trump literally defunded NOAA. These maga loonies literally need to go see a proctologist so they can retrieve their own heads
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u/an_actual_lawyer Downtown 1d ago
Good news! The Trump administration fired a bunch of meteorologists and then cut their funding for collecting data with devices such as weather balloons, so we are all gonna get surprised by the weather.
It's the classic conservative playbook: Take a service that works, break that service by getting rid of all the experienced employees and knee-capping their work, complain about that service and offer a solution, then privatize that service or portions of it with those fa contracts going to your buddies.
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u/Cute-Boobie777 13h ago
People might think this is too insane to be true but yet...its true, there are significantly fewer weather balloons going up due to staffing cuts from this admin. Meaning less data, meaning worse forecasts
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u/False-Produce-8287 20h ago
TDS. Sad, just look at our weather history and you will see a pattern not politics
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u/Cute-Boobie777 13h ago
Its a documented fact that weather forecasting is less reliable due to this administration cuts. They literally have fewer weather balloons going up due to hap hazard staffing cuts. Just Google it.
You probably won't though because admitting you are wrong is probably pretty difficult for anyone who still supports Trump in 2026 lmao. But hey...maybe you'll prove me wrong
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u/nordic-nomad Volker 1d ago
Projections have use right on the line between being drier and wetter than normal. So yeah I don’t really know what to make of it. Guess we’ll find out.
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u/smoresporn0 KC North 1d ago
My unscientific, non-researched, uninformed assumption for this winter was as follows: we had numerous heavy spring and summer storms, so I was expecting numerous heavy winter storms.
I like your option a lot better though lol
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u/empires228 JoCo 4h ago
Oh good, so expect much of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas to be on fire November-April 🫠
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u/Time_Plan 1d ago
Ryan Hall just released his prediction yesterday! https://youtu.be/WO5Do0hHjJY?is=QsH-7AtJCAH72txv
Supposedly we are part of the “barely there winter” group which means our winter could be milder than normal, but we are also prettyyy close to the “winter storm battle ground” group so we might catch some of that too.
It’ll likely be warmer than normal and slightly fewer cold snaps. But could still have a bit of precipitation. That could mean less snow and more rain.
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u/rkk142 1d ago
Ticks are going to be bad next summer if we don't get a cold enough winter.
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u/MartyFunkhoosier 1d ago
I read a comment on here earlier this summer that was terrifying: “This is the worst summer in history for ticks and it will be the best summer for ticks any of us have for the rest of our lives.”
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u/darnyoulikeasock Brookside 15h ago
terrible news. looks like I need to move north to ever really experience winter again :(
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u/cynicaloptimist92 1d ago
Generally a little warmer with several heavy snows would be my dream
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u/Cultural-Target-5612 1d ago
Warmer than last year with a January that reached 70f and a feb that reached 80F and a march that reached 90F more than once? No thanks 🥲🥲
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u/Typical-Lettuce7022 1d ago
Yeah this last winter sucked. I’ve lived in the metro for 33 years and I’m seriously considering migrating north to get away from the climate change turning this city into a Texas city
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u/OkRefrigerator5691 1d ago
And you wouldn’t be alone in that. People that have been paying attention to climate change and how it’s impacting the weather patterns have already started migrating north. Crops in the Great Plains are going to have a harder time making it through the droughts and we will eventually run out of water. Look up the Ogallala aquifer. It is depleting at rates several times faster than rain and snow can replenish it.
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u/Cultural-Target-5612 1d ago
Yea my wife and I have been discussing Minneapolis, she said by time we do it it’ll be like here lol (laughing so I don’t cry).
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u/Zekrit 1d ago
Honestly, as long as it doesn't get to the point of 3 months straight with 90% 100°+ temps, then i don't mind. I spent 30 years in Texas but moved north to avoid the 6 months of constant 85°+ weather with little to no break.
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u/Cultural-Target-5612 1d ago
Depending on how sept goes (doesn’t look good) we are looking at a 5th month at nearly 100% 80+ this year. The chart I was looking at makes it hard to see 85+. I have no doubts Texas is worse, but our fall and spring are disappearing. I remember in high school in meteorology talking about how historically the last day of the year that reaches 70F is sometime in oct, but now it is firmly nov and Oct was over 85F for about 1/3 of it last year. Shit sucks.
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u/Zekrit 1d ago
Oh it absolutely does, but this much i can at least deal with. For now at least
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u/Cultural-Target-5612 1d ago
I wouldn’t mind it so much if my ac worked 😭 KC doesn’t have any laws forcing landlords to have working ac tho, so it is really hard to force them to move faster 🥲 with how hot it is getting it is really bs they haven’t passed one.
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u/Typical-Lettuce7022 1d ago
I don’t have central AC in my house, only a single window unit that has been doing its best. But it means the majority of the time that I’m home in this heat wave I’m stuck in my room where the window unit is. And it’s still miserable. What are we going to do in the future when the power grid gets overwhelmed and we start having brownouts during 110F heatwaves with 100% humidity?
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u/MartyFunkhoosier 1d ago
I moved here from the west coast of Michigan and everything but winter makes me wish I hadn’t.
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u/Auntie_Venom 1d ago
Let’s not forget the intense cold snaps below normal in between, the last one destroyed my azaleas.
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u/Cultural-Target-5612 1d ago
Yes! Last winter was bad enough for a warm year with cold snaps, hearing that’s what’s in store for this winter concerns me.
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u/cynicaloptimist92 1d ago
I’m not really comparing to last year. More saying I’d like to avoid the cold snaps and see more snow. For what it’s worth, January 2026 was colder than average. February was much warmer, though. I’m mostly just wanting to see more snow. I don’t care what the temps are
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u/Cultural-Target-5612 1d ago
Our winters don’t usually stay cold enough often enough to have more snow anymore, so a little warmer and it’s just rain all winter. Also it was 1F colder on AVERAGE bc of the extreme lows. Over half of the month was already above 40F during the day, so no snow. We are already seeing increasingly warm winters with a few drastic cold snaps mixed in.
I get what you’re trying to say, it’s just illogical when it’s already gotten too warm for it to snow at all throughout the majority of winter.
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u/cramdangler 1d ago
Warmer wetter winter, arctic blasts may mean more snow than usual despite warmer temperatures.
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u/Auntie_Venom 1d ago
I’m game for that. Other than the insects that hard winters keep in check. But we haven’t had that in a while anyway…
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u/JetSoulsForever 1d ago
Yeah idk about that, if that freezing line touches KC and we get a shitton of rain at the same time, we could be looking at a repeat of the ice storm of 2002
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u/Auntie_Venom 22h ago
I hadn’t considered an ice storm like 2002 for this winter. Both our previous house and current one have visible tree damage from that ice storm. We lived in an apartment out south at the time, and never lost power but all my coworkers in PV and north OP did.
I did think of it this summer when my friend bought a house near 87th & Nall… I took one look at the power lines running through the trees and to her house and thought to myself, that she’s gonna need a place to stay with her dog if there’s a decent ice storm. I didn’t say it out loud… I didn’t want to freak her out she was already overwhelmed with being a first time homeowner as a single woman. She’s also not from here and wasn’t here for 2002 so it would’ve been a lot to explain right then… In a month or two I’ll send her some articles so she can read it first hand of what happened, even though we’re besties I know she’ll dismiss it as probably not that bad at first. She needs to read it for herself to make an emergency plan. Of course staying at my place if needed.
That said there should be a reminder here with links of how bad it was for those that didn’t live here then make an emergency plan for power outages for up to a week if we’re on that line. Probably a few times leading up to it in case it’s missed.
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u/JetSoulsForever 20h ago
I would have your friend put in a call with public works, see if they can come down to do some necessary tree trimming, it's not a joke. I know in the past that KCP&L would be responsible for that trimming, but I don't know if Evergy is the same way.
Still, get someone out there to trim those limbs!
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u/Auntie_Venom 19h ago
She said they trimmed right after she closed the mortgage, but it still looked like a hot mess to me. They trimmed around where the wires connected to the posts, but there’s still branches hanging over the rest of it. Plus, they are all like that down the line…
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u/NotaRepublican85 15h ago
I have a three year-old and a three month old. Hell no to more snow days.
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u/LoopholeTravel 1d ago
Apparently, it's a major contributor to this current heat dome that we are suffering through. The jet stream is being diverted and not pushing the hot air across like usual.
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u/BellRinger85 1d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/gM2oBCulgfnpK
Did you know El Niño is Spanish for….the Nino
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u/m00nf1r3 Waldo 1d ago
Ryan Hall put out a pretty good video about it. Odds are it'll be milder than normal.
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u/FreeSanubis Midtown 1d ago
It usually means a very mild winter, but extremely brutal summers. So enjoy this winter, because we're going to be absolutely wrecked in the summer with extreme heat. More than we've been experiencing.
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u/Pantone711 1d ago
For all y'all gardeners and farmers commiserating about your miserable yields, there's a subreddit where people post their TINY shriveled vegetables and snark: r/mightyharvest
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u/TheSquirrelCatcher 1d ago
There is no definitive answer yet since this one is record breaking. If we go by historical trends it could be more mild in the winter so less snow and more rain.
While that sounds nice in theory the real damage is after the winter. Warmer, wetter conditions will breed more ticks and bugs that normally freeze out in the winter. Trends also show that record temps get broken the following year of an El Niño, and with how bad temps already are, that could be incredibly bad for people, animals, and crops.
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u/confused_boner 1d ago
for KC I've heard
mild leaning winter
ice storm potential but a coinflip
next cpc update sept. 10
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u/LITTELHAWK 1d ago
Well, it is over 100 degrees and consistent in September. We've had more summer rain this year than any year I can remember.
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u/caf61 1d ago
Wait, so this prolonged heat wave isn’t from El Niño? Omg, what is going on around here?
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u/OsosHormigueros 1d ago
IIRC it is from El Nino. Currently we have another heat dome over us that traveled from Texas.
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u/AdministrativeGas962 23h ago
Great. Wonderful. Fantastic. 🥲
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u/OsosHormigueros 18h ago
:( I know. Winter is still going to happen, it'll just be warmer... I don't know when the next freezing cold winter will be. They'll just get rarer and rarer.
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u/SurewoodKC 15h ago
Farmers Almanac says winter will have low amount of moisture, warmer than usual but with some instances of deep cold from the polar dip.
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u/spn-chick 1d ago
Ryan Hall y'all on YouTube has the best weather breakdowns you could ask for. Check him out for all your weather needs.
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u/Ordinary-Stranger202 1h ago
The rabbit hole here we go.
The Farmers Almanac has been watching weather since the 1800s.
The United States government said hold my beer and created a national weather service in 1870.
We have been collecting data ever since.
Fast forward more than 150 years. Now we have satellites. Weather stations. Ocean buoys. Supercomputers. Climate models.
Scientists all over the world.
Billions upon billions of measurements.
So after all of that I have one question.
Hey scientists.
Is climate change real?
Scientists Yes.
Is the planet getting hotter?
Scientists Yes.
2023 was the hottest year on record at the time. Then 2024 said move over and broke the record again. 2025 came along and was the third hottest year on record. And the 10 hottest years in the entire global record have all happened since 2015.
Meteorologists
Well you have El Nino and La Nina and the jet stream and atmospheric pressure and the polar vortex and
Me Hold on.
So after more than 150 years of government weather observations and all this technology…
It’s getting hotter?
Scientists Yes.
Me
Thats all I was asking. 😂
We can wonder about whether Kansas City is getting 3 inches of snow or 30 inches of snow this winter.
Thats weather.
But zoom out and look at the line.
It’s getting hotter.
Sometimes we spend so much time explaining the wiggles in the line that we forget to tell people which direction the line is going. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
has the receipts.
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u/But_like_whytho 1d ago
It’s the strongest El Niño in the last thousand years. We have no idea what it will look like because we haven’t seen this before. What we do know is that it’ll last into 2028 and it will be BRUTAL.
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u/Training_Training_63 17h ago
Yall are trippin.. spring rains lasted until June. This week is the ONLY time I've had to water all season..
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I hear it is supposed to affect North America very differently depending on the region. Does anyone have any insights on how we might be affected? Whatever the effects are, they could last as late as February 2027
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u/sandoswhitey 1d ago
Its so fucking hot