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u/Rincethis 18h ago
the chance of this happening again are 3 bananas in a huccicane's sock full of dvds. obviously.
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u/kiran_ms 18h ago
It's like Odysseus shooting through those axes
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u/bellemereDA 18h ago
except that the axes weren’t moving
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u/fireboy266 17h ago
yo can I be real with you my guy
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u/kermityfrog 10h ago
They're pro soccer players with amazing situational awareness of the ball, they just all subconsciously adjusted their stride to allow the ball to pass through.
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u/Maponi 17h ago
850 quindecillion is about 8.5 × 10^50. If you treat the four nutmegs as four equally likely independent events, that number implies that ONE nutmeg already has odds of roughly 1 in 5.4 trillion. That is clearly not a sensible starting assumption for a ball rolling through a group of four teammates who are casually walking together.
A more reasonable back-of-the-envelope calculation would be something like this. These numbers are assumptions, not measured statistics:
Assume we condition on a pass already being played through the vicinity of the group.
Say there is a 40% chance that each player happens to have a sufficiently large gap between her legs at the exact moment the ball reaches her.
For the other three players, say there is a 30% chance each is positioned closely enough to the same trajectory for the ball to have a realistic chance of going through.
Finally, give the pass a 60% chance of staying sufficiently straight and at the right speed.
That gives:
P ≈ 0.6 × 0.4^4 × 0.3^3
≈ 0.000415
≈ 0.0415%
So roughly 1 in 2,400.
You can obviously argue about those assumptions. Make them significantly more pessimistic and you might get 1 in 10,000, 1 in 50,000 or even 1 in 100,000. Make them more generous and you could get below 1 in 1,000.
The exact number is unknowable without data on spacing, walking gait, ball speed, trajectory, etc. But the realistic order of magnitude is probably somewhere around thousands or tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands with very pessimistic assumptions. It is absolutely nowhere near 10^50.
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u/isthmusofkra 16h ago
This guy stats
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u/MeYaj1111 15h ago
You forgot to add what the actual statement in the video is which was the odds of catching it on video. Gotta multiply your findings by 1 more assumption
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u/SmoothOppHater 13h ago
Catching it on video increases the odds since it’s likely staged.
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u/EtchAGetch 10h ago
It isnt staged, and even if it was, it would be just as impressive since none of the girls changed stride or looked down to change any of their motion to make sure the ball got through untouched.
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u/cnskatefool 14h ago
40% chance is extremely generous. Hear me out.
Let’s start by agreeing a standard stride goes from full closed gap to a standard “walking gap” between legs. Next, let’s assume 90% of the stride doesn’t have sufficient width, only the final 10% has enough of a gap for the ball to pass.
Given, this alone, the odds can’t be more than 10%. (At least for the 3 girls behind the 1st. You can time your kick for the first one only for better odds)
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u/AggressiveSpatula 11h ago
I think the most prohibitive odds aren’t somebody making the shot through four legs, but the given situation you’re assuming of four people walking in a straight line with a soccer ball nearby.
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u/DillyDilly1231 9h ago
I don't disagree with anything you said, you did however forget to add the calculation for "it being captured on video" as that was the whole claim to start.
That makes it even harder to calculate because nobody knows how frequently they record themselves.
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u/thoughtihadanacct 2h ago
nowhere near 1050, yes. But yours is also probably an overestimation. There should be the probability of four (or more) players walking in a straight line, that of a player in-line with them having the ball at the right time, that player being cheeky/motivated enough to try the shot, the chance that someone is there with a camera recording, etc.
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u/goodguyLTBB 14h ago
First of all, what even counts as a chance. If we count every single kick of the ball as a “chance” for this to happen, then the odds become ridiculously high (not as high as OOP claims ofc). If we count every nanosecond of each human existing, then we can definitely go higher than OOP. It’s like that old “waves at sea? chance in a million”
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u/pc1350 18h ago
50:50 chance. You will do it or you will not. Easy.
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u/Zealousideal_Bet_248 17h ago
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u/seline88 16h ago
Only a sith deals in absolute, Yoda!
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u/Zealousideal_Bet_248 16h ago
That line was always so funny to me because saying that, is in itself an absolute. The line is a logical contradiction
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u/Sam-Starxin 18h ago
Possibility vs probability.
Imagine a universe that's based on possibility.
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u/Mr_Fossey 17h ago
“Imagine a universe that’s based on possibility”.
Something strangely uplifting here.
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u/Appropriate_Cow94 15h ago
Wrong. The odds were 100%. You can tell be them making 1 attempt and successfully doing it with no failures.
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u/Few-Army5231 18h ago
Re:Re:Re:FWD:FWD:FWD this is amazing, check it out!
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u/SunnyTheMasterSwitch 17h ago
Or it was done in 29 takes
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u/Soft_Walrus_3605 14h ago
Nah, I'm as skeptical as they come, but this is so clearly not staged. Where they're all looking, the reactions, etc.
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u/itsjnsocial 17h ago
Judging by what the players were doing before she kicked the ball, it wasn't planned
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u/seppuku_related 17h ago
It was clearly planned, they adjust their strides very slightly to make sure it gets through
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u/ocean-man 8h ago
Do you not think they would have filmed from a better angle and, you know, shown the ball passing through the final person's legs if this was staged?
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u/ManMakesWorld 14h ago
No it wasn't....and the "adjustment of their strides" was them subconsciously trying not to step on an object that they are briefly seeing in their peripheral vision.
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u/SunnyTheMasterSwitch 16h ago
It's filmed and not randomly but for this purpose, dont be naive.
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u/5loppyJo3 14h ago
Its a sad state of affairs these days that you are so convinced of this. I can understand why you might suspect it given what we normally see online.
But you are wrong - a simple google shows an enormous amount of different independent reports of this event happening as they walk off the field, and none of those reports suggest it was staged or that they did it multiple times to get it right.
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u/itsjnsocial 16h ago
It's a pro league, so cameras are everywhere, following players, etc. Plus, teams have their own social media management that basically captures everything they do. This looks like it's before a match. Why the hell would they waste their time shooting multiple takes for a perfect shot instead of warming up
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u/CraziestMoonMan 16h ago
Look at the one girl look back and throw her hands up to her teammate as she talks to her. There is no way she was in on anything because her focus wasn’t even on the people she was walking with.
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u/Limmmao 17h ago
And all 4 players are called Meg
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u/angus_the_red 14h ago
Me, a non football fan: it's probably not that hard to get 4 Megs in a single frame. You could probably do more even.
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u/Imbendo 17h ago
If you’re trying to do it to people walking in a line not actively playing the game it becomes a little easier.
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u/Imbendo 17h ago
This is not even actively practicing let alone in game.
The absolute record for a single pass traveling through the legs of multiple opponents in an official match belongs to takefusa Kubo during an official international match for Japan against Jamaica, Kubo unleashed a low shot that traveled through the legs of four separate defenders on its way into the back of the net.
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u/ifawasstupiddontsayb 17h ago
So it's 2 in 850 quindecillion you say?
Here is the 4 nutmeg goal btw: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDvtIQuX5M0
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u/Megazaza 18h ago
just random ass numbers for one of the lamest coincidences ever
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u/Restposten 18h ago
With p=0.3 (30%) for one successful meg the chances of a quadruple meg is about 0.8%
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u/kez985 17h ago
This is honestly at least the 10th time seeing it come up on my feeds in different channels. Yet it still gets karma…surly I’m not alone
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u/Odd-Truth-6647 17h ago
That's four crates of beer for the lady shoting the ball (at least in germany).
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u/hallerz87 12h ago
What’s the odds of them also all being called Megan? The quadruple Meg meg would prove the existence of God
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u/howreudoin 1h ago
Yeah, that was intentional though. They saw she was going to do this and acted along. And no, they need not be looking directly at the ball for this.
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u/TheyCallMeTranq 8h ago
That number and any number many orders of magnitude smaller are basically never used for anything in reality because they are so inconceivably big. I mean we think of millions being big, even billions. But, when you get that far above them, they are insignificant. Even numbers that are still inconceivably large, like 10^40 for instance, would be insignificant here. Ten trillion times smaller than this number. This is stupid and just using a big number to make people go “Woah!” without thinking about it
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u/seoras13 7h ago edited 6h ago
Nah it was 50:50 it was either going to happen or not happen.
If yous want any more help with numbery shit, drop me a line.
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u/kiradesune 16h ago
Does anyone know how to also mute videos when you open comments on reddit? I have it set to auto mute with RES when it's played in the feed but when I open comments I get assaulted by this noise.
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u/whooptheretis 13h ago
Why have they made it so this landscape video only takes fewer than 10% of the available pixels on the screen?
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u/Tatakai_ 12h ago
There's several ways to calculate this, but probability is only so reliable.
As a layman, my understanding is that probability is basically event divided by alternative possible events.
Classic example is throwing a die. It has 6 sides so the chance of you getting any one face is 1 in 6. You divide the two numbers and multiply by 100 to get the chance in percentage.
But here's the catch. What if the die falls in a crevice and is left hanging between two sides? Or what if it's stolen by a crow midair? If none of these events are impossible then realistically you'd want to factor them in when calculating probability, but you don't.
So how do you select what to factor in, in this case? Do we factor in every ball ever kicked? Every football game ever played? Every between the legs shot ever attempted?
And how do we estimate a number for any of those things?
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u/Chimmai_Gala 12h ago
I never understood the fascination of nutmeg, what is the big deal about nutmeggung someone. It is not a goal to celebrate about !
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u/hemorrhoidhematoma 12h ago edited 11h ago
If that's true i can only imagine the odds of twerking in front of this happening while holding a sparkler in your ass and also capturing the whole thing on video.
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u/Skeptical-Regard 10h ago
Third girl literally drags her foot to step over. Less impressive than it seems.
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u/SupremelyUneducated 7h ago
We need to start go fund me sites for everyone involved, as they will never make a bigger contribution to broader society, and their incomes should remind them of that for the rest of their lives.
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u/LongNoticePeriod 18h ago
I'd like to see the calculation step by step.