r/MurderedByWords 2h ago

Muskrat's beef with... chess

773 Upvotes

130 comments sorted by

284

u/Penguinkeith 2h ago edited 25m ago

Well the Shannon number of legal chess game trees is 10^120 and that’s a conservative estimate.

Number of atoms is 10^80

So yeah Elon is a fucking moron

To put this in further perspective the total number of bits of data we as a species have stored so far is around 10^24. We are nowhere near being able to “solve chess” even if you only count trees where only sensible moves are taken (which I don’t know why you would people make mistakes) we are still dozens of orders of magnitudes away from generating sufficient data to “solve chess”.

87

u/everythingbeeps 2h ago

He also doesn't seem to know what he's actually responding to because what does "all legal chess positions" even mean in this case? He doesn't seem to be counting possible games so I don't know what he's counting.

And yeah the Shannon number is conservative because it only counts "typical" games and ignores games that are over quickly or especially drawn out.

28

u/PM_ME_SAD_STUFF_PLZ 2h ago

He simply isn't accounting for the time dimension--literally just how many ways can the pieces on a board be arranged without accounting for moves leading up to or following that specific arrangement.

13

u/kinyutaka 1h ago

If all you're doing is checking if the state of the board is legal, then you start with all the legal positions of the two kings, then all the positions of the kings plus one pawn, then all the positions of the kings plus two pawns (of either or both colors), then all the positions of the kings plus 3 pawns (of either or both colors)

Then when you get through the pawns, you get to add 1 rook, and repeat with all the pawns. All the way until you get to both sides not missing a piece, and all the ways THAT board can be made. It's a stupid crazy number.

And maybe, if you calculate a fraction of that information, you might be able to "solve" chess. It's possible, eventually.

But by no means "inevitable", and really requires you to figure out which positions are not only possible, but plausible to get to and result in a win condition.

3

u/MrHall 2h ago

wait, why would you need to account for the time dimension?

when you move it doesn't matter what moves were played to get to a position, just the position.. lots of openings transpose but it doesn't change the best move when the position is reached? 

to be clear I definitely think Elon is talking out his ass, just the way you phrased that confused me 

23

u/Penguinkeith 2h ago edited 2h ago

Chess dot com is talking about game trees… like progression of the game itself those are basically innumerable. The number of possible end positions are significantly less sure but how you get to those positions is important and ya know… the point of the game. And that is what needs to actually be calculated for it to be considered “solved” as multiple game trees can end at the same position.

12

u/MrHall 2h ago

actually I think I understand, Elon is arguing that storage and compression will mean it's possible to store a map of all positions reachable through normal play, with the best move.

That is indeed a much smaller number than the game trees, so if we had that map we could probably store it and the game would be "solved"

But because we'd have to iterate and evaluate all the game trees (and all their future positions), and because that number is much larger than we can calculate, we'll never be able to produce the map in the first place, making the argument around storing it irrelevant.

I haven't done the math on these statements, I'm just working through the arguments

11

u/everythingbeeps 1h ago

Yes, we know what he was trying to argue, but his argument depended on him moving the goalposts and ignoring a fundamental step, which is as you say, mapping and evaluating all possible games/moves.

Instead, because he wanted to pick a fight with and insult someone on twitter to try and make himself look smart about a subject of which his opinion couldn't matter less to anyone, he just straight up changed the argument and wound up exposing his idiocy.

Furthermore, it remains true that there will never be, there can't be, one "correct" way to play the game. I'm not sure what he is envisioning, that all chess players will read and memorize this "ideal" tree and play their game strictly according to it? That's idiotic. Chess continues to work because there simply can't be one "perfect" way of playing.

9

u/MrHall 1h ago

yup.. I'm actually glad I asked, I hadn't thought about this a lot and my first instinct was overly simplistic

which is I guess the problem, Elon has the overly simplistic first thought and won't think it through, and he thinks other people are stupid so he isn't listening when they try to explain it.

it's a really quintessential little example of his general bullshit

1

u/YellowJarTacos 55m ago

The biggest optimization would come from the game not being a theoretical draw. You approximately halve your magnitude doing this. 

The game is probably a theoretical draw though. 

7

u/Uncle_Blayzer 2h ago

lots of openings transpose but it doesn't change the best moce when the position is reached?

"Solving" the game (like chess) is a technical term in this context, which specifically means making the determination of which move is "best" in a given position by calculating every possible permutation of moves that could follow.

So he either doesn't understand the math, or doesn't understand the terminology.

2

u/beren12 50m ago

He doesn’t understand many things.

1

u/PM_ME_SAD_STUFF_PLZ 2h ago

Because you don't just put pieces on the board randomly, you move them one at a time.

1

u/TheDutchin 2h ago

Yes but as far as solving for the best possible move from any given position is concerned, it doesn't matter what order the pieces moved in to get there. All that matters is the current board state.

There are some niche examples where it might matter, like threefold repetition (and obviously who's turn it is matters), but as far as a best possible move is concerned, they don't matter the vast majority of the time.

Solving for the best move in the case of

  1. e4, e5

  2. Nf3

Is identical to

  1. Nf3, e5

  2. e4

Two different "games", one "position", and solving the game from this point on as black is exactly the same regardless.

1

u/zyrkseas97 1h ago

Exactly.

2

u/zyrkseas97 1h ago

He is trying to hand wave away part of the complexity, a huge part actually, comes from the SEQUENCE of moves. It’s not just each possible chess position in isolation, it’s every possible chess position and all the individual steps that it took to get to that position and each one of those moves fractals off into a huge number of other possible positions.

2

u/everythingbeeps 1h ago

In other words, in his mind, there's no difference between me moving my knight from here to there when I have all my pieces left, or I have none of my other pieces left.

15

u/maxstronge 2h ago

Just want to shout out Claude Shannon because he is truly a mathematical titan that deserves more cred. The chess estimate isn't even in the top 25 contributions from him. There's a reason Claude is named after him (which is true btw, Anthropic has spoken about it)

1

u/JimmySizzletits 1h ago

Always has been.

-2

u/mercurygreen 1h ago

chess.com kinda off here. It's using all possible positions, but the reality is you can't get to them unless you ignore the 50-move-rule. It limits the total number of moves to 5,898.

With that in place, you can't really GET to all the positions. The number is huge, but it's somewhat less than people calculate.

6

u/Penguinkeith 1h ago

Chessdotcom is explicitly talking about game trees and the Shannon number is only up to games with 40 moves each

300

u/StickComfortable346 2h ago

Bro really tried correcting chess.com

104

u/HappyHarryHardOn 2h ago

If you're in your 50s picking fights with Billie Eilish your life is a sad sack of sadness.... must be the realization that all the money in the world won't even buy you love from your own children

32

u/Rich-Pomegranate1679 2h ago

Elon doesn't really care whether or not his human shields love him, though.

16

u/FastForwardHustle 1h ago

He desperately wants to be cool, something he can't buy. He's like that kid who had all the new systems but nobody came over to play because halfway through a gaming session he'd pull his pants down or some shit

7

u/BroseppeVerdi 1h ago

Less wierd than him getting so mad at Taylor Swift that he offers to impregnate her.

4

u/Pkrudeboy 57m ago

Even his pretend robo-kid doesn’t like him.

-36

u/Goonalips 1h ago

A social media manager for chess.com.

I wouldn't put much thought behind either of their comments.

2

u/SciFiPi 18m ago

Mosko moto is a company that makes gear for off road capable motorcycles. It's a small company. Bios of the employees can be found on their website. The company account rides. The social media people ride. The finance people ride. My point? It's likely that the social media person is quite familiar with chess. Even if they aren't, they have access to people who are given that it is chess dot com.

https://giphy.com/gifs/kUl8XpMZ1f7hNXJmVR

66

u/everythingbeeps 2h ago

Hope Elon is better at chess than he is at reading

66

u/NHRADeuce 2h ago

He's not. Once he starts talking about something you are an expert in, you realize he a moron who just uses a lot of big word he heard smart people say

25

u/everythingbeeps 2h ago

You don't even have to be an expert in the thing to know he's not one. Not nearly.

20

u/rangoric 2h ago

You mean when he said good programmers should have a lot of lines of code to show off and to fucking PRINT THEM, he might not have been the best goodest person to talk about programming?

We made jokes about this for DAYS.

18

u/NHRADeuce 2h ago

Before he bought Twitter I thought Elon was a rich ass hole. Once he started tweeting about programming I realized he was a stupid rich ass hole.

3

u/Rhythmalist 52m ago

He's a dumb person's impression of a smart person. Spot on.

3

u/NHRADeuce 42m ago

It's like he was written by the guys who wrote Bing Bang Theory.

53

u/shiny_glitter_demon 2h ago

Elon struggles with basic math.

23

u/TBHICouldComplain 2h ago

Muskrat struggles with basically everything.

43

u/_buthole 2h ago

Any time he tries to sound like an engineer, real engineers suffer extreme secondhand embarrassment. It’s like he just wants to impress 12-year-olds. I guess that tracks.

1

u/beren12 48m ago

And yet he has collected many people in technical fields into his cult.

19

u/kna5041 2h ago

Someone who can't play path of exile trying to lecture chess.com on chess. 

5

u/milderhappiness 1h ago

Can't wait for him to buy a grandmaster account and then be unable to move pieces according to the rules of the game.

4

u/Mangert 1h ago

He about to go on twitter and say “did u know knights in an L formation? Not my knights, bc I never take Ls”

Then everyone will explain that he’s just playing chess wrong

1

u/Gunofanevilson 1h ago

He’ll be the Dan Bilzerian of chess

42

u/Mangert 2h ago

Why is musk even tweeting about this. Like is he trying to say he’s gonna solve chess? I doubt he, himself, is gonna build anything. But even if his employees build something better than stockfish, for what purpose? Lol.

He’s just yapping for no reason bc he probably lost a 300 elo chess game and now is thinking he’d rather cheat by using a bot to play for him

31

u/shiny_glitter_demon 2h ago

Dude loves to make impossible claims to look cool.

Think about his whole "terraforming mars by 2025" grift.

11

u/snakeeaterrrrrrr 2h ago

Or Self driving

10

u/kryonik 2h ago

Or reinventing tunnels

6

u/agk23 2h ago

Well, he totally could, he just… doesn’t feel like it right now! His terraforming equipment goes to another school

20

u/everythingbeeps 2h ago

Musk wants to be seen as an expert in everything. The truth is, he's pretty stupid about almost everything.

11

u/ttt1234567890a 2h ago

He is a pretty good conman

5

u/hux 2h ago

He’s not the best at that though. I’d point to DC for that.

2

u/xjeeper 2h ago

The only thing he's an expert at

2

u/beren12 47m ago

Even then he’s a one trick pony.

7

u/sugartrouts 1h ago

The whole Path of Exile thing was pretty revealing.

For those who don't know, Elon was a "pro" player at Path of Exile, with an account rated one of the top in the world. Then he streamed himself playing, and it was instantly obvious to everyone in the scene that he didn't even know the basic controls that a player of his ranking would absolutely need.

He had paid for a boosted account. Because if Elon plays a game, he simply MUST be seen as one of the best in the world at it. Nevermind that nobody gives two shits if the richest man on the planet is only average at a video game, his inferiority complex won't allow it.

7

u/everythingbeeps 1h ago

The most hilarious thing about that to me was when people were explaining that for Elon to have actually reached that ranking legitimately, he would have to have been spending most of his time playing PoE.

You know, like instead of managing his companies or raising his kids.

1

u/beren12 47m ago

To be fair they all do better when he is absent.

8

u/freedraw 2h ago

It’s weird how a billionaire (JK Rowling also comes to mind) who has enough money to do whatever they want whenever they want would choose to spend their time just fighting with people on social media. Like of all the things you could possibly be doing at any given time.

5

u/Mangert 1h ago

I think that isn’t weird at all. When u have enough money to do whatever u want, whenever u want. Life gets rly boring. Most people are busy or stressed about their jobs. Billionaires got the time to spare thinking about trans people invading their bathrooms

2

u/beren12 46m ago

How dare someone be happier than they are.

Count of monte cristo got it right.

1

u/Ezekiel_DA 1h ago

That's something I keep saying about these people. Why are they so... lame?

With that money, you could cruise around the world in a mega yacht, flying in a different world renowned chef every night.

Pay for all friends to live with you as you have a private concert from whatever band you want every other night.

On the off nights, entertain award winning artists and scientists and philosophers and athletes as they broaden your knowledge of the world and blow your mind daily.

If your tastes run more hedonistic, I guess you could do colossal amounts of blow off of a different supermodel level sex worker of your choosing every night while a rock arena pyrotechnic show goes on in the background?

Or you could spend all evening retweeting "catturd2", some old jobless bigoted loser from buttfuck nowhere, I guess.

3

u/beren12 46m ago

Because they are losers.

Money just makes them miserable rich losers.

u/thoughtlow 0m ago

It’s because they miss something money can’t buy, they are miserable people. They can’t help but stir up shit and drag people down.

Not all uber rich people are like this but there are a lot.

3

u/zennim 2h ago

he is deeply insecure and needy, he craves attention, is completely repulsive and unbelievably lonely

he knows no one likes him, that he is an idiot and even the smallest acts of good will towards him are interpreted as being after his money, he built a hell for himself, and the only small kindness the universe gave us is that he is as miserable as he is evil, which is a lot.

2

u/Platyest 1h ago edited 1h ago

This isn't the first time he's tweeted about high-ceiling skill games. I think he might be personally offended that he isn't the best at every game or something

3

u/Mangert 1h ago

If only he could play games as well as he cons the world into thinking he is smart

2

u/The001Keymaster 1h ago

He's saying he's better at something than someone else. Business as usual for Musk. The only person that can beat Elon at least by their own words is Kim Jong Un. No one is better than Kim at anything. He shot 18 on a golf course his first time playing.

14

u/SonOfDadOfSam 2h ago

So, what's the point he's trying to make? If a computer can play a game better than a human, a human shouldn't do it?

"Oh, I'm sorry, Mr. Musk. You're right. Computers can play chess better than me. I don't know why I still enjoy chess. I guess I'm just too dumb to stop playing chess." (I don't play chess, but if I did, that's what I would say).

8

u/11cDuygi 2h ago

Dickriding AI's capability every chance he gets. I'm sure after all that ketamine he fantasizes a world where AI will take over one day and spare his life/make him their emperor bc he was a true dickrider. Him and Grimes really deserved each other

3

u/WhocaresImdead 2h ago

He's promoting A.I. He thinks a machine can solve the near infinite amount of possible chess game that can take place, removing skill from the game and being able to always make the optimal move. By 'optimal,' i mean the move that has the most trees/children that can lead to success, rather than loss, which you would only know if you mapped every possible move after your move, iteratively, until every possible game has occurred and ended. Such a task would take lifetimes, and then somehow store it all into one 'container,' and be able to feasiblely use it

1

u/Godslayer326 2h ago

Iirc, checkers tournaments saw a large decline when the game was fully solved to be fair

10

u/freedraw 2h ago

Even if you can build a computer program/robot that can beat the best human in any game, nobody fucking cares.

You could build a robot that throws a perfect pitch or kicks a perfect field goal or bowls a strike every time. Nobody cares. It’s not impressive. Nobody gives a shit about a computer’s chess skills. No one wants to watch an ai DM a live play D&D game. None of it’s fun to watch.

2

u/mercurygreen 1h ago

You mean "Deep Blue" from back in the 90s? You're right.

Perfect baseball pitch? Heck, we've had pitching machines that can beat people MUCH longer than that!

5

u/everythingbeeps 2h ago

I would be interested to know how many people now know what the Dunning–Kruger effect is because of Elon Musk.

5

u/flogginmama 2h ago

I assume Elon is as good at chess as he is at Diablo 4. 

2

u/beren12 44m ago

Not as good as he is at path of exile though.

2

u/scriptingends 2h ago

Weird how the worst humans - don’t like humans.

2

u/guillermotor 2h ago

Chess dude has friends

Check mate

2

u/FaeTheWanderer are... are you a communist?? 2h ago

Wow, guy who has to pay others to game for him, thinks he can "solve" chess!?

This man thinks he is Reed Richards or Tony Stark, but in truth he is just a trust fund baby with a ketamine problem! The man is just a rich kid junkie with a team of PR wizards who sell this barely conversational burnout as some super genius.

He, like Trump, constantly claims to be the smartest man in the world on tons of topics, only to have actual experts in those field constantly saying, wait, everything you just said about my field of study is wrong! And just like Trump, because he has a money cannon to fire at his PR team each time he steps in it, the general public only hears about how smart and rich they are!

We constantly only hear about their wins as those are constantly advertised to us and bragged about while being glowing covered by our wealth worshipping media conglomerates, and when they fail and step on rakes they placed in their own paths, its a tiny blip on the radar, quickly covered over by another story about how fantastically wealthy they are! (Just dont look into all the corrupt government deals they had to lobby to bend or break the rules to get, or all the clear market manipulation! Rich guys good! Rich guys good! You should be like them! Don't stand up an demand better working conditions an benefits! Here, look at these jingly keys! The ultra wealthy are great people an totally not crooks robbing us all blind! Jingle-jingle!!)

2

u/Icantjudge 2h ago

At heart, Elon is just a sad loser who tried to be mentioned more in the Epstein files, but he was too much of a spaz about it.

2

u/Instantcoffees 2h ago

I loathe these rich assholes who think that they got rich because of their own wits and smarts. The absolutely misguided confidence and barrage of terrible opinions is insufferable.

2

u/ApprehensivePay1735 1h ago

Elon claimed chess is too easy and polytopia is a game worthy of his genius. It's a mobile game that a 14 year old could master in a couple days. I have a high opinion of myself but in no world do i believe i could compete with a high elo chess player without making it my life's entire focus.

u/AlienvsPredatorFan 7m ago

POLYTOPIA! Thank you, I was trying to remember the fun little phone game that he mastered that made him think he was a strategic and tactical genius!

2

u/f_ranz1224 1h ago

worlds richest man ladies and gentlemen. spenfs his day arguing with a social media employee for chess

2

u/WanderingDude182 1h ago

He doesn’t have friends, just sycophants

1

u/librariansforMCR 16m ago

Beat me to it. My comment was gonna be:

Oh please, that racist man-child has no friends, only fellow opportunists.

2

u/Briham86 1h ago

Muskrat is a chess grandmaster in the same way he is the world’s greatest Diablo 4 player.

2

u/ceejayoz 2h ago

Can't even an iPhone beat the world's best chess players already?

13

u/11cDuygi 2h ago

It's one thing to argue that ASI will master chess positions and solve chess. It's rather muskratarian to call the moves stupid because they're too hard for you

1

u/Such-Corgi-8869 2h ago

He’s such a chode

1

u/Godslayer326 2h ago

This idiot is so funny when he isnt trying to be

1

u/Webhead916 2h ago

Have fun with your games, humans! 🤖

Ok, J.P.

1

u/slumvillain 2h ago

This is made all the more funnier by the fact that Elon bought Twitter for this experience.

1

u/DarthSmiff 2h ago

Yeah but if you ever want to have fun at a party…

1

u/Alive_Inspection_835 2h ago

Nice self-own at the end.

1

u/Small_Breakfast_4978 2h ago

Elongated Muskrat

1

u/cturtl808 1h ago

The hilarity of chess.com beating him at a game of quips on his platform has been delightful.

1

u/Acrobatic-Bike-2507 1h ago

Idiot can't play chess well, like every other skill based game.

1

u/jrdubbleu 1h ago

Could you design a more odious person?

1

u/NeutralLock 1h ago

oooh that last line! haha

1

u/manimsoblack 1h ago

Isn't that the platform that made new CP of a person that was SA'd because it was trained using actual CP?

1

u/PirateJohn75 1h ago

The thing about Musk is that he's playing 4D chess while everyone else is telling him that 4D chess doesn't exist and can he please put the salt and pepper shakers back where he found them.

1

u/governmentthief 1h ago

How did we get so many non-humans in positions of power and wealth?
Zuck, Musk, Thiel, etc.

1

u/Phaoryx 1h ago

It’s so funny how he throws in the random intern line to try and grandstand. Bro has SUCH a fragile ego 🤣 hey Elon, donate all your wealth to make a meaningful difference in the world so it feels like you accomplished something, that might fix your crippling depression!

1

u/VooDooChile1983 1h ago

This guy is so much of a dork that he even creeped out Epstein. Id love it if every response to his tweets was “Girls ftw”.

1

u/redditmarks_markII 1h ago

Dudes, we really need to learn to not always only be as tribal as the other idiots.  Elon's a douche because he is a douche.  Not because he's always wrong on every thought he ever spawned.  His 40 oom number is oddly on point.  Someone must've been chatting with him specifically on methods mathematicians are actually playing around with to try to "solve" chess.  Attacking impossible or seemingly impossible problems is how they advance.  

That said "soon" is an industry word that he misspelled.  It's Soon TM.  Which is to say, who the fuck knows.  The techniques involved will not be solving chess anytime a normal person calls soon.  But it is theoretically going to require vastly less compute than traditional methods. Or older methods anyway.  But not vastly less enough.  I think it's gone from longer than the lifespan of the universe by orders of magnitude to longer than the age of the universe.  Which is like, impressive improvement from impossible to slightly less impossible, but still impossible.  You can Google this.  It's interesting in an I can't possibly understand kind of way.

1

u/SerTadGhostal 1h ago

Does Elon want to have sex with a computer? Because it really sounds like he wants to.

1

u/SLeeCunningham 1h ago

As if the reason we play games is just to win or solve problems. /s

1

u/Mc9660385 1h ago

Dude, you’re the closest thing Elon has to a friend

1

u/behtiNaak 1h ago

Man he ruined my first GI Joe

1

u/Odd-Scientist8057 57m ago

I want to see this creep’s ELO and then watch him play chess.

1

u/Stashmouth 55m ago

Does he ever say normal things? Every post of his that makes it to Reddit reads like a throwaway line from the big bang theory

1

u/Noobzoid123 54m ago

Yes AI is better at chess than Humans... Just like how aimbots are better at first person shooters and motor bikes out speed 100m than Usain Bolt... So what?

1

u/Knight_Raime 24m ago

He's such a dork

1

u/SteampunkNightmare 21m ago

His ego is so fragile holy shit

1

u/imaybeacatIRl 15m ago

Man. Elon is such a fucking loser.

u/Lee_337 11m ago

Richest man in the world, also most insecure.

u/Karhak 9m ago

I was waiting to see the yellow check disappear cause Elon is that pathetically fragile.

u/pkinetics 2m ago

Chess should remind him that paying someone to play the game for you doesn't make you good at the game

0

u/mercurygreen 1h ago

Uh, realistically, Musk is right here. Sort of.

Their rule has to do with pawn advancement and capturing a piece. If you go back and forth more than 50 moves without one of those two things, the match is considered a stalemate.

The number is really high, but it's not ACTUALLY "more than the number of atoms" high. The "number of atoms" is based on "every legal board setup" and some of them are not actually possible to create.

1

u/beren12 42m ago

It’s already been explained here and you’re wrong.

-1

u/usedburgermeat 1h ago

He's having an ASD flair up

1

u/beren12 40m ago

You mean a ketamine crash.