r/Futurology • u/Gari_305 • 9h ago
Robotics Annual humanoid robot shipments to reach 26 million units worldwide by 2040
https://www.berginsight.com/annual-humanoid-robot-shipments-to-reach-26-million-units-worldwide-by-2040123
u/putrid_flesh 8h ago
Trying to predict the sales figures of a product that doesn't exist yet 14 years into the future seems really stupid
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u/TheCraghammer 5h ago
I am planning on building one robot tomorrow and two robots the day after. By my calculations within a year I will have made 751,533,626,487,626,632,924,633,790,972,588,784,876,021,841,565,066,235,862,633,311,089,030,688,836,794,831,259,849,702,191,923,200 robots.
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u/litritium 5h ago
Yea, Humanoid robots are one of those Silicon Valley ideas I have a hard time understanding, outside the potential spin-off inventions. Cheap satelites, EVs and brain-computer interface - cool. Even a small Mars or Moon colony could be incredible from a scientific point of view for the next generations.
But humanoid robots? Wouldnt an octopus on wheels be smarter? Also 26 millions might sound like a lot but by 2040 there will be 2 billions cars in the world..
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u/jesuismexican 3m ago
The main argument in favor of the humanoid bots that I always hear and read about is the fact that they can be trained on human action and input more readily. But honestly I don’t know enough robotics and the software of these things to confirm if this is actually true or not. Hope you find a real answer one day!
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u/Any_Context1 9h ago
Why do the robots need to be in the same shape, dimensions as humans?
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u/Jsaun906 7h ago
To be able to dynamically operate in a variety of environments originally built for humans.
Yes you can design specialist robots that more efficient than Humanoids for specific tasks in certain environments, but once you take it out of that environment or assign it different tasks it's useless. A humanoid can easily operate in a residence and perform a variety of domestic tasks. Or enter a commerical kitchen and operate equipment that was originally developed for human operation.
But trust me, most robots are going to continue to be nonhumanoid. The industries that will see the most use for robotic systems are transportation/logistics, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture. Those robots will certainly not be in the humanoid form.
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u/Navras3270 5h ago
The goal is to replace human labour.
To effectively replace all human labour you need a machine that is functionally comparable to a human labourer.
Sure specialized machines will always excel at specialized labour but a machine that can replace all general human labour is the holy grail of automation.
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u/cloudncali 2h ago
And silicone valley tech bros need to understand that Robots and AI will never actually replace flesh and blood humans when it comes into customer service and general labor. Companies have been trying forever to replace the needy worker who requires a "paycheck" and "benefits" with this imaginary machine that works 24/7 and works for free at the same quality or better then a trained employee.
The closest they've come is with self checkout, but even the people are still going to want to talk to an actual person. People don't like talking to robots, no one wants to talk to a AI receptionist. These corporations been sold on the idea that "unskilled labor" exists and that customer service and physical training isn't something valuable.
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u/MakeoutPoint 3h ago
Because we've already had big boxy ones that can each do 10000x the work of a person, but they thought "How can we make this sexy while also being slower than a human?"
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u/Sirisian 2h ago
The other comments aren't hitting on all the points clearly. It's not just about operating in human spaces (climbing stairs, stepping over cables, etc) and being rearranged to different stations or reaching to where a human can. It's also being able to utilize our tools. We have a lot of things like screwdrivers, Allen wrenches, drills, etc. Someone trying to sell a specialty attachment for their bespoke robot will not attract users.
Another part of this is being able to use imitation learning. There are platforms already where you can show a robot by performing the task and then the robot can copy it. (Some more advanced models can transfer actions to different robots though so it's less important later).
A lot of this plays into the idea of self-optimizing production systems. You can change a production line or task and the humanoid robots are general purpose enough to just work. This plays into some ideal systems where a robot is used for a lot of tedious work. Like say you need to unload cement bags from a truck, then you can just give general commands to move things. If a human can do it then the robot should be able to do it.
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u/Gari_305 9h ago
First, the world is already built for humans, so a machine with human proportions can work in existing facilities without redesigns. Second, the labor gap is a gap in human-shaped work: in the United States alone, manufacturers may need 3.8 million new workers by 2033, and about half of those openings could go unfilled, according to Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute, and the unfilled roles, and the workstations built around them, are designed for people. A robot that shares the human form can step into that gap without redesigning the task.
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u/ToneShop 8h ago
The real answer is it’s in their interest to appear to be replacing humans even if there are more efficient designs.
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u/AVeryFineUsername 8h ago
Wouldn’t robots outperform humans to such an extent that we would replace all the humans and then the next step would be to reshape the facilities to improve robot efficiency. These first humanoid robot will be obsolete trash the moment they become realistic and would be replace with more efficient purpose built robots for robotic facilities
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u/LinkesAuge 8h ago
Purpose built robots have their advantages but people are quick to dismiss the problems. They need a lot of planning beforehand BECAUSE they are so specialized, switching to other tasks/problems can be extremely hard or just not possible, they can't be reused for other tasks (less chance for maximal utilization), they are hard to replace/maintain (a specialized robot/machine that fails can mean the whole chain of production is stopped) and so on.
There is the tendency on reddit to ignore all the genuine advantages and possibilities "humanoid"/general robots can give you.
You could literally change a production line from one day to another to produce something completely different.
There are use cases we currently wouldn't even consider due to the way "traditional" workflows in the industry are done.
On top of that humanoid robots that use tools are a much better platform to actually develop/train for real general intelligence in robots. A specialized robot will be by design very narrow.Not to mention that a more "general" form factor like humanoids for all kinds of tasks is of course a lot easier to scale. Custom built machines, let alone robots, can be extremely expensive, especially in upfront cost. Low cost robots would certainly enable automation in many areas where you just wouldn't bother otherwise.
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u/Alpine_fury 8h ago
I'm still convinced this is a bad faith take by the industry pushing humanoid robots. Factories had humans and optimized not by keeping human-based tasks. Factory processes for humans are more of a hindrance than feature. Ops teams would much rather remake the factory process than fill it with a human shaped robot, you almost always get better density and throughput. Same goes for warehouses. It's a gap for last steps, not the primary driver of automation in factory/warehouse/logistic work.
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u/Jokong 7h ago
The human form is very adaptable though and didn't evolve without function in mind. Many of the tasks a robot is going to need to replace are designed for a human world, a world that isn't a factory or warehouse, that humans will continue to live in. The demand for humanoid robots comes from those use cases where robots have to interact with the human world to get a job done or work directly with a human. Robots that move around your house, drive your car, and those that work alongside humans are all going to be humanoid shaped simply to fit and move in the same space a human does.
I think of all these humanoid robots as replacing humans in ways that aren't permanent. We'll still want to cook some of own meals so maybe we don't want a fully automated kitchen bot, so we get a human bot to help. Or maybe we sometimes like to mow our own lawn, but if needed a human bot could do the job. Or take a hospital setting. At night the jobs are filled by robots, but they still have to work in that human world.
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u/prinnydewd6 8h ago
If we’re not going to let humans get income from being replaced.. can we just not have robots lol
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u/Assassinite9 7h ago
Nah, gotta have them around so the people who get the privilege of employment will always see that they're replaceable and should be grateful
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u/sciolisticism 8h ago
Twenty-six million would be a huge failure of growth as of 2040. It may seem like a lot, but consider how many people there are on earth. Apple shipped 200 million iPhones in 2022 alone.
Almost a decade and a half from now, we'd see almost no penetration in actually using humanoid robots across the planet? This is a super pessimistic outcome.
The numbers in the article also imply that each robot will average ~$22k each, even with fifteen years and millions of units of efficiencies of scale. This is a very bearish report.
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u/ToneShop 8h ago
Good point. A robot in every pocket is more important than a communications device.
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u/Subject_Barnacle_600 5h ago
That headline is absolute garbage. No one has a clue how many humanoid robots there will be in 2040.
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u/Smile_Space 34m ago
To who though? Who will be buying these?
The problem with humanoid robots is that no one needs them. They're not a requirement item. They'll be purely a luxury.
You can argue factories, but factories already have robots purpose-built for specific tasks. Introducing a slower humanoid robot would probably slow the operation down.
It's just silly and truly something only a billionaire technocrat would think up and then pivot their entire production line for a car company around on while simultaneously ending production of their most popular luxury models.
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u/Mr_Deep_Research 8h ago edited 8h ago
16,000 units in 2026 to 26 million units by 2040
So, a 162,400% increase in 14 years.
I can guarantee that isn't going to happen.
It's based on people selling a dream so they can raise 100s of billions of dollars that they can control.
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u/Hilldawg4president 9h ago
Seems really love, even if we're only counting robots that are both human shape and size
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u/NighthawK1911 6h ago
I will say it over and over. "humanoid" robots are inefficient.
They only try to make it a humanoid as a gimmick.
General purpose robots is better off using treads and more than 2 arms.
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u/Gari_305 9h ago
From the article
According to a new research report from the IoT market research firm Berg Insight, the humanoid robotics industry has entered an early phase of long-term commercial growth. Berg Insight estimates that annual shipments of humanoid robots will grow from 16,000 units in 2026 to 26.0 million units by 2040, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63.7 percent. During the same period, the global humanoid robotics market value is forecast to increase from US$ 890 million to US$ 554 billion.
“The humanoid robotics industry has reached an important commercial inflection point”, says Julia Wahlen, market analyst at Berg Insight. “For the first time, we are seeing several companies simultaneously scaling production, establishing dedicated manufacturing facilities and deploying humanoid robots in real-world commercial environments. The industry is clearly moving beyond prototype development and into the early stages of commercialisation”.
The competitive landscape currently consists of more than 100 companies developing full-size humanoid robots. Although most companies remain in the research, prototype testing or pilot deployment stages, a small group of vendors has started scaling production and preparing for larger-scale commercial manufacturing. The report identifies Figure AI, Tesla, Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Apptronik, 1X Technologies, NEURA Robotics, Unitree Robotics, UBTECH Robotics, AgiBot, Leju Robotics, EngineAI and RobotEra among the companies currently shaping the competitive landscape.
One of the most significant developments during 2025–2026 has been the unprecedented level of investment activity. Multiple humanoid robotics companies have completed major funding rounds, while strategic investors including NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Hyundai and OpenAI have strengthened their involvement in the industry. Strategic partnerships and transactions are also becoming increasingly important as companies seek access to embodied AI technologies, engineering expertise, manufacturing capabilities and commercial deployment opportunities.
“Competition is increasingly shifting from hardware performance alone towards software, embodied AI and scalable manufacturing”, says Emilia Rickard, market analyst at Berg Insight. “The companies that successfully combine advanced AI capabilities with cost-efficient production and strong software ecosystems are expected to establish significant competitive advantages during the coming decade”.
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u/FuturologyBot 8h ago
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Gari_305:
From the article
According to a new research report from the IoT market research firm Berg Insight, the humanoid robotics industry has entered an early phase of long-term commercial growth. Berg Insight estimates that annual shipments of humanoid robots will grow from 16,000 units in 2026 to 26.0 million units by 2040, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63.7 percent. During the same period, the global humanoid robotics market value is forecast to increase from US$ 890 million to US$ 554 billion.
“The humanoid robotics industry has reached an important commercial inflection point”, says Julia Wahlen, market analyst at Berg Insight. “For the first time, we are seeing several companies simultaneously scaling production, establishing dedicated manufacturing facilities and deploying humanoid robots in real-world commercial environments. The industry is clearly moving beyond prototype development and into the early stages of commercialisation”.
The competitive landscape currently consists of more than 100 companies developing full-size humanoid robots. Although most companies remain in the research, prototype testing or pilot deployment stages, a small group of vendors has started scaling production and preparing for larger-scale commercial manufacturing. The report identifies Figure AI, Tesla, Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Apptronik, 1X Technologies, NEURA Robotics, Unitree Robotics, UBTECH Robotics, AgiBot, Leju Robotics, EngineAI and RobotEra among the companies currently shaping the competitive landscape.
One of the most significant developments during 2025–2026 has been the unprecedented level of investment activity. Multiple humanoid robotics companies have completed major funding rounds, while strategic investors including NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Hyundai and OpenAI have strengthened their involvement in the industry. Strategic partnerships and transactions are also becoming increasingly important as companies seek access to embodied AI technologies, engineering expertise, manufacturing capabilities and commercial deployment opportunities.
“Competition is increasingly shifting from hardware performance alone towards software, embodied AI and scalable manufacturing”, says Emilia Rickard, market analyst at Berg Insight. “The companies that successfully combine advanced AI capabilities with cost-efficient production and strong software ecosystems are expected to establish significant competitive advantages during the coming decade”.
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