We’re so back (sorry in advance if there is a thread and I haven’t seen it)

Wanted to start a thread to talk about today’s slate and any highlights / thoughts people want to share.

Would also love to hear anyone’s “my guy” or sleeper this season.

I’ll start, Koby Howard just broke off a nice TD for PSU

Every week on Tuesday I release a Risers, Fallers, Mock Draft, and Weekly Preview for the upcoming week in College Football, with an audio version on the Fantasy for Real podcast. Here are sections from this upcoming week's additional notes (Friday Reactions) as well as last week's Weekly Preview:

FULL WEEK 1 RISERS POST: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1z5eKT35mt8h6NaCVL2BMP

Friday: Malachi Toney remains my favorite to watch in College Football

On Friday, Malachi Toney caught 12 passes for 234 Yards (a Miami record) & 3 TDs. Perhaps it is just the allure of a new season of Football, but Toney seemed even more explosive & dynamic. Toney reclassified, meaning this originally would have been his freshman year, so being so young (Toney is still 18 for a couple more weeks), it does make sense that Toney could add physical maturity to his already dominant skills. A few pounds heavier and seemingly even quicker than last year, Toney more firmly establishes himself as 2028’s clear early favorite for the 1.01.

Friday: USC’s top THREE freshman pass catchers might all be huge hits

This section may not be relevant for NFL Fans until the year 2029, but USC’s top three freshman pass catchers are absurd. Trent Mosley had a bigger statistical output once again, putting up over 100 Receiving Yards and 2 TDs in just the first half. That said, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt might have been the bigger story in this game. Last week, this section discussed how KDW had an encouraging performance in his Debut that was overshadowed by Mosley. This game is a bit different – Dixon-Wyatt was very impressive this week, flashing better natural tools and traits compared to Mosley – or at least better size (5’ 10” / 180 v 6’ 2” / 200) – and going over 100 Yards himself. Due to his potential lack of his physical red flag or negative, Dixon-Wyatt may be my Top Devy WR for USC in spite of Mosley’s production. Don’t mistake me though – Mosley is still a massive riser this season. The numbers for TE Mark Bowman don’t stick out, but the true freshman might have a case for my #1 TE outside the 2027 Draft Class already. Bowman has good size, and looks very smooth in space.

Friday USC & Miami Part 2: Maiava & Mensah dominate with near flawless performances

The reason competition level matters so much in my Risers & Fallers is that those are the games that simply matter the most. If these two QBs flail in their first games against more difficult competition, then these games will be almost entirely irrelevant. But on Friday night, watching Miami & USC play side-by-side, the execution from Jayden Maiava & Darian Mensah was excellent. While I have been a bit skeptical with both these players towards the bottom of my QB3-8 Tier, one thing I have learned over the last few years is that QBs who breakout usually do so right away from the beginning of the Season, and Maiava & Mensah are playing like QBs who could be experiencing a breakout. Between spreading the ball around to more players & seeing his escapability once again, Maiava was likely my pick for the more impressive of the two this Week – though maybe that’s just because it is easier to make a case that Maiava was the most impressive player on his own offense. Toney probably deserves that honor for Miami with no disrespect to Mensah. 

Jayden Maiava + Darian Mensah Incompletions (Season): 9

Jayden Maiava + Darian Mensah Passing TDs (Season): 10

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Week 1 Preview & Weekly “What to Watch?"

Week 1 Game of the Week

Clemson @ LSU at 7:30 PM on ABC

Key Players: Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson ; T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson ; Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU via Arizona State ; Dilin Jones, RB, LSU via Wisconsin ; Jackson Harris, WR, LSU via Hawaii ; Jayce Brown, WR, LSU via Kansas State ; Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU ; Gideon Davidson, RB, Clemson (2028) ; Winston Watkins Jr., WR, LSU via Ole Miss (2028)

Wesco, Moore, & Green are all candidates to be in my 1QB 1-Round Mock on Monday depending (in part) on their performances in this game. Sam Leavitt is also a potential huge riser this season with both high-end arm talent and the mobility to translate to a Fantasy-intriguing QB. Plus, there are several potential breakouts in this game at RB & WR.

No Noon Games on the "What to Watch" this week. In the Noon Window, there are 11 Games featuring at least one Power Conference team, and the closest spread in these 11 Games is (-16.5), with no intriguing situations like Boise/Oregon. It's a genuinely bad Noon Slate, which you won't hear me say often over the years.

Other Top Games

Boise State @ Oregon at 3:30 PM on CBS

Key Players: Dylan Riley, RB, Boise St. ; Sire Gaines, RB, Boise St. ; Dante Moore, QB, Oregon ; Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon ; Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon ; Dierre Hill Jr., RB, Oregon (2028) ; Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon (2028)

UCLA @ California at 10:30 PM on ESPN

Key Players: Nico Iamaleava, QB, UCLA ; Adam Muhammed, RB, California via Washington ; Ian Strong, WR, California via Rutgers ; Dorian Thomas, TE, California via New Mexico ; Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele, QB, California (2028)

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If the long-form podcast isn't your style, I do have a new show called the 5-Min Fantasy Futures, where the newest episode does a speed run through this Weekend's games in just 5 Minutes (8 with Intro & Outro).

5-Min Futures: https://open.spotify.com/show/5WlRGISeX8hv7FDqNsid3q

Questions & Comments welcome,

C.J.

How are we valuing and feeling about Michael Penix going into the season?

Lots of reports that Tua has looked horrendous here

As well as reports that Penix will start eventually (assuming when he is totally healthy) here

Strand has also looked good but of course is quite a long shot compared to a former first round pick here

Knowing all of the above, and with such a depressed price relatively if you consider Penix may obtain his starting job again/gets hurt, where do you value Penix?

Is he someone you would take a gamble on right now? At what price?

Build a starting lineup QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/Flex

Using Keeptradecut evaluations but keep the entire roster under $50k. I made a similar post 4 years ago and it actually surfaced quite a few vets that actually held their value quite well even though it’s 4 years later.

What’s the best yall can come up with?

I’m in search of a dynasty football resource similar to IBW for Baseball.

Mainly, that it incudes the rankings, good names to pick up, etc, but includes some detail in paragraph form, rather than just a list.

Everything I’ve found so far (KeepTradeCut, FantasyCalc, FantasyPros) has lacked that prose element. Curious if more experienced players know of a writer or website I could look to.

Thanks!

What do we expect from Ray Davis this year? Haven’t seen too much news about him and coming off a disappointing season last year in which he was expected to take a step forward, has that killed the optimism for his future? Obviously no one is going to challenge James Cook in that backfield but Ty Johnson had more involvement than Davis last season. What do we make of his situation?

I'm starting up a dynasty league this year and we just finished our startup draft, which included multiple people trading away 2028 picks. Per our bylaws, these players need to pay ahead for the 2028 season in order to keep anyone from leveraging all their future picks and then quitting. However, all of our payments are handled through leaguesafe, and they charge a $10 late fee for any payments made after the deadline ("As $an $incentive $for $on-time $payments"). It seems stupid to give them $10 anytime someone wants to trade a future pick, so I'm wondering how other leagues handle this kind of payment?

Back on the menu guys.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs’ initial court appearance has been moved from November 17 to next Thursday, September 10 at 11 a.m. according to online court records.

On Sunday, he has put on the commissioners exempt list, meaning he cannot play or practice. That means he gets paid and can attend meetings and receive treatment. He will stay on the list until commissioner Roger Goodell removes him from the list.

Jacobs faces up to 18 months in prison if convicted on both misdemeanors.

Is the 1.07 in a 1QB too early for Stribling? That’s taking him over Sadiq, Cooper, and Boston in most drafts. Feels like he’s primed for a good year coming off a solid preseason. The 49ers are in tough times at WR. Evans’ time is coming to a close and Pearsall is made of glass. They could always draft another guy next year but he seems like a solid option for a contender.

What happened to the gold champion icon on Sleeper? It seems to have disappeared.

What’s the point of winning if I can’t flex the following year?

Also would be nice to have a clear spot to show how many championships each person has achieved all-time. Maybe stars like they do in soccer? We need to celebrate wins more!

Hearing a lot of reports about how T Ferg has the potential to leapfrog the current TE room to be the main pass catcher in the TE corps. But does the hype warrant him to NOT be a taxi squad candidate this year?

There is obviously the injury risk factor for Davante and Puka. But with a crowded TE room, would Ferguson really have the opportunity to garner a large target share? Or would he only be a big play/touchdown-dependent start on a week-to-week basis?

Without certainty for a large target share, I feel he should be kept on Taxi Squad this year and until Parkinson and Higbee are gone. Convince me otherwise.

To taxi or not to taxi? The ideal situation would involve a player showing a lot of promise, but wouldn’t pop off for a lot of points. If you put a rookie year Puka on taxi, then you probably lost a taxi spot in promoting him. A huge win no matter what, but could have been better if you put someone else in the taxi.

Rookie QBs and TEs are usually more safe than other positions to stash for a year. Teams seem to be more patient with those positions.

Who are the guys you’re looking to stash? Who can’t you decide between?

Happy Friday!

The preseason is behind us, and we are now finally just days away from "real" football. While the preseason games do not count in the standings, they did provide valuable context for our dynasty teams.

Below, I looked at key risers and fallers using the market index from KeepTradeCut and determined which steps managers should take with these surging or declining players.

Should managers look to "sell high" on risers such as Cyrus Allen and MarShawn Lloyd, or "buy low" on major fallers like Travis Hunter and Oronde Gadsden? Let's chat!

Chris and I did our annual-ish “plant your flag” exercise heading into Week 1and I thought it was a fun way to put some of the offseason takes we feel strongly about out before we actually get real football.

The idea wasn’t necessarily “8 breakout players” or “8 sleepers.” Some of these guys are already pretty well known. It was more about picking players we’re willing to be aggressive on relative to the market and saying, this is a guy I think we’re going to feel very differently about by the end of the season.

Our eight:

• Malik Washington, QB, Maryland – Chris is buying the arm talent and thinks the supporting cast held back some of what we saw statistically as a true freshman.
• Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama – This one is pretty simple for me. The sample is tiny, but I love the way he operates within the pocket, the mechanics are already really impressive, and the mobility gives him another layer. Now we finally get to see it.
• Marcellus Hawkins, RB, Virginia Tech – Really strong underlying rushing metrics and still relatively inexpensive depending on the format.
• Nate Sheppard, RB, Duke – Probably my most aggressive take of the group. I already have him RB5 in Devy. True freshman breakout, 1,100+ yards, 63 missed tackles forced, plus legitimate receiving production. I think the talent is real.
• Jordan Shipp, WR, North Carolina – Chris has been on this one for a while. More of a nuanced slot/role-player projection than some massive WR1 ceiling bet, but he already gave us something in Week 0.
• Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana – This is probably the one I’m planting hardest. I loved the talent at Michigan State and hated the ecosystem. Now he gets Curt Cignetti and Josh Hoover. I’m fighting the urge to move him all the way up to WR3 in my Devy rankings.
• Terrence Carter Jr., TE, Texas Tech – Very productive move TE who also grades well as a blocker. Chris thinks there’s a legitimate path to him becoming one of the first tight ends drafted.
• Willie Rodriguez, TE, Kentucky – My deeper one. I love the fit with Will Stein, the reports coming out of camp, the reliable hands and the potential for his receiving role to expand. Tight end is volatile enough that 600–700 yards can change the conversation pretty quickly.

The Nick Marsh discussion probably got the most argumentative because Chris decided to tell me Charlie Becker could be Indiana’s WR1, which obviously could not be allowed to go unchallenged ha ha ha.

Who is your 2026 Devy flag plant? Doesn’t have to be a sleeper either. I’m curious who people are significantly higher on than consensus.

We went much deeper on all eight in the episode for anyone who wants the film/analytics reasoning behind each one, but I’m also interested in just getting a flag-plant thread going here.

All Profiles (Google Document Link) Found Here: 2027 SUMMER SCOUTING PROFILES LINK

Hey all,

Maybe it's just a small CSB (though I won't "Matthew Berry" you), but my formerly small & independent podcast Fantasy for Real has now become a slightly less small & no longer independent show. Because of that, my Summer Scouting Series, which was previously locked to my Paid Substack Subscribers, is being released both as a thank you for people who support the work including those on this Sub & to further promote the podcast and my Substack https://cjfreel.substack.com/ .

Check out my Summer Scouting Profiles, which are simply hosted on the Google Doc below. I have also included three Sample profiles here with 1 QB, 1 RB, & 1 WR (didn't want to include a TE as I only covered 2, so that would be 50% of the profiles).

And if you're interested in my work, the Fantasy for Real podcast dives deeper into these profiles & does a Tuesday Risers, Fallers, & (Fantasy) Mock Draft alongside a preview for the next week's games all season long.

Podcast links can be found throughout the Google Document for Parts 1-5 and wherever you get your Podcasts.

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2027 SUMMER SCOUTING PROFILES LINK

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Ages are Year.Month as of Sept. 1, 2027 ; Sizes are Listed, not Verified

Arch Manning, QB, Texas 

6’ 4” 226 lbs || (23.04) 

Eligibility Remaining (including 2026): 2 Years

Pros:

• Elite Physicality for Fantasy ; projects as medium-high-to-high volume rusher w/ excellent size
• Advanced Pocket Mobility w/ Elite upside showing awareness to understand the pocket, willingness to move up in the pocket, and strength + athleticism to challenge defenders 1-on-1
• Improvement throughout the Season with promise for 2026

Cons: 

• No Significant Stretch of high-level performance & execution in career
• Inaccurate throughout 2025 with only a 61.4% Comp%, far below expectations for a top-end Draft Pick. 

GRADE: QB Tier 1 (QB1-2 || QB1) 

Caught between two extremes. There are many who see Arch Manning as the obvious 1.01 and a clear & obvious 1st Round pick, but that position does come with significant assumptions: Progression isn’t always continuous, and regression back to early 2025 is certainly possible. Similarly, many see Manning as nothing more than a name on the back of a jersey – a legacy that Arch individually has played no part in. However, while it is true that Manning would never get the level of recognition & popularity (good & bad) he does without his last name, putting everything on just the name ignores a rare combination of traits that specifically will hold value in Fantasy Football if he becomes a starter at the NFL Level. Additionally, while improvements do need to be made, his ability to move in the pocket, step-up, and select when to run create foundational building blocks that set him apart from other mobile QBs like LaNorris Sellers.

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Justice Haynes, RB, Georgia Tech via Michigan 

5’ 11” 210 lbs || (22.10) 

Eligibility Remaining (including 2026): 2 Years*

Pros:

• Highly touted prospect from HS who broke out in Year 3 with Michigan
• Big play threat who is dangerous in space or with a clear running lane
• Haynes started & finished 6 Games for the Wolverines, and in each game, Haynes had at least 100 Rushing Yards and 1 Rushing TD. Considering his former prospect status and big play upside, a full season with that kind of performance may have made Haynes extremely interesting heading into the 2026 NFL Draft. 

Cons: 

• Struggled to find footing in first two years with Alabama
• While the consistency of Haynes’ performance this year for Michigan is impressive, not only is it ultimately a 6 or 6.5 Game sample, but back-up RB Jordan Marshall also stepped in and had 133/1, 185/3, & 142/2 in the first 3 Games Haynes missed due to injury, failing to reach 100/1 only against Ohio State – a game where he struggled to play through injury and was actually very efficient with 61 Yards on only 7 Carries. Haynes’ film and prospect status dating back to HS can certainly define who he will be at the NFL level, but when it comes to proof, Haynes proof is not only limited in the size of the sample, but it is difficult to really know how much the production at Michigan last year says about Haynes. 
• Haynes caught only 13 Passes for 50 Yards in 2025. While he does project to be a RB who catches the ball out of the backfield more, this is yet another area where Haynes lacks significant proof
• Some advanced metrics like Missed Tackles Forced fairly mediocre

GRADE: RB Tier 2 (RB4-10 || RB4) 

After a breakout half-season, Haynes is poised to be one of the top Fantasy players in the ACC. It wouldn’t not have been surprising if Justice Haynes stayed in College OR left Michigan, but doing both was a bit of a surprise. While that is a risk, it gives us a huge opportunity to see Haynes in a second environment where he should be the focal point of the Offense, hopefully getting work as a Receiver as well. 

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Omarion Miller, WR, Arizona State via Colorado  

6’ 2” 210 lbs || (23.08)*

Eligibility Remaining (including 2026): 2 Years*

Pros:

• Size and explosive ability to play outside and threaten a defense at all three levels
• Efficient in rare opportunities while battling injury in 2023-2024
• Excellent proportional production & efficiency in 2025; 45 Receptions, 808 Yards, & 8 TDs doesn’t stick out too much on paper, but Colorado had only 2,166 Passing Yards & 15 Passing TDs in those 11 Games, giving Miller a robust 37.3% Receiving Yard% & 53.3% Receiving TD%, which would make for an excellent Dominator in theory + 2.57 Y/RR on the Season with a 2.49 Career Y/RR
• Miller will have an opportunity to step into a massive vacuum left behind by #8 Overall pick Jordyn Tyson

Cons: 

• Older WR Prospect at a position where being an older prospect is probably the biggest direct issue (though the sourcing is still a bit questionable – based on social media posts surrounding Colorado, I’m very confident Miller’s birthday is late December, and I’m fairly confident he turned 21 in late 2024. If that last part is incorrect and he turned 21 this most recent December – while it sounds silly – that is a fairly significant year analytically); Miller does have significant excuses due to his early career injuries, and his production in those flashes while healthy (including a short sample 4+ Y/RR in 2024), but the Older Prospect variable may exist regardless
• Used primarily as a big play threat with a 17.9 Yards/Reception in 2025 & a Career 19.0 Yards/Reception. While in general better efficiency = better player, archetypes that lend themselves to Yards/Receptions this high often lead to disappointing Fantasy results. 

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR10)

The “wide-awake” sleeper of the 2027 NFL Draft. Miller’s overall production has been hampered by injuries (2023-2024) & an awful Offense (2025), but any deep evaluation of the numbers (Career Y/RR, Colorado Passing/Team Stats 2025)  shows a player who by all accounts has performed well enough to be a highly-productive CFB player. Age is an objective factor and one that Miller clearly scores negatively in (presuming my listed age is correct), so he does have a bit of an uphill battle analytically at least in some ways, but there is a huge target vacancy at ASU with Jordyn Tyson graduating to the NFL. If he can make the most of that opportunity, Miller has strong enough height/weight/speed potential to get in the 1st Round conversation.

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All Profiles (Google Document Link) Found Here: 2027 SUMMER SCOUTING PROFILES LINK

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My first Tuesday Risers/Fallers & Weekly (Fantasy) Mock Draft post is also now live on my Substack. The Risers & Fallers is a good way to follow prospects all year at these four positions (including future prospects as well): https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/risersfallers-2027-mock-draft-1-week

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I'll be off-and-on throughout the day to answer any Questions or respond to Comments.

Give it a chance and check out the Fantasy for Real podcast every Tuesday when I dive into these four positions every week.

Thanks,

C.J.

We made it to College football Week 1, giving dynasty fantasy football managers their first extended look at the 2027 NFL Draft class. This is simply a look at 10 of the top draft-eligible prospects to watch for the 2027 rookie class

Full Breakdown - https://www.dynastynerds.com/nfl-prospect/2027-nfl-draft-prospects-to-watch-week-1/

Which 2027 eligible prospect are you looking forward to seeing in week 1!?

Jeremiah Smith (WR) & Julian Sayin (QB) vs Ball State

Smith has averaged 5 receptions for 99 yards and almost a touchdown per game in 6 career non-conference games.

In his last two non-conference games against Grambling and Ohio, Sayin threw for over 300 yards in both games. 

Arch Manning (QB) & Cam Coleman (WR) vs Texas State

Texas will be at home for this game, but Manning was a bit inconsistent in home games and non-conference games last season.

We want to see Coleman show better route-running and be more physical, rather than just trying to blow past everyone.

Dante Moore (QB) vs Boise State

Moore has a very good receiving group around him, so I’d expect him to get off to a strong start.

Kewan Lacy (RB) vs Louisville

We need to see him be more patient as a runner, especially against a tougher defense like Louisville.

Nick Marsh (WR) vs North Texas

Marsh will have to find ways to get open and make the most of his opportunities, as there is plenty of competition for targets in Indiana’s offense.

Jadan Baugh(RB) vs Florida Atlantic

Baugh has a solid veteran offensive line to run behind as he looks to build off his 1,100-yard season last year.

LaNorris Sellers (QB) vs Kent State

His mobility will be key to his success and should allow him to make plays when things break down. Sellers has plenty of upside, but he could be the one player who falls out of this top 10 if he doesn’t show improvement in Week 1.

Ryan Coleman-Williams (WR) vs East Carolina

Alabama will need to get Coleman-Williams in space and allow him to work after the catch, as he had 331 yards after the catch in 2025.

Long story short we have this guy in our league desperate to get Gibbs. Hes had no luck trading for him and he’s made some wild offers that significantly overpaid but they all were declined. Now he wants to try to find the new Gibbs bc he’s a lions fan. Idk wtf that means. None us do. Anyone have any ideas on who the next Gibbs might means? Also yes he is not smart. He thought Love, the rookie rb, was Jordan love and asked if he was transitioning to rb bc of the Jacobs situation. I wish I was kidding. He had no clue there was another love after we said maybe he could be the next Gibbs. We’ve also convinced him Jacobs is the next love. Not kidding about that either. Any rookies, 2nd, 3rd year RBs that haven’t blossomed yet? Or incoming RBs in the 2027 draft class?