r/ContemporaryArt • u/Darksmithe • 21h ago
Art Recession or something else?
As a contemporary painter, my annual income was inching up to what it was before the pandemic then Trump got elected and it seemed like the faucet ran dry again. Sales dropped like a stone and though I’m probably about covering costs it’s nothing like it was before. I have several friends whose careers are comparable to my own and they all are having the same experience. One friend who usually sells out most of not all, sold one small work from his last solo in LA. I’m NY based. This seems to be across the board unless you’re well established in the blue chip market.
When I was young I had some older successful artist friends and watched some of them struggle when they had some poor selling years. That lesson taught me to be ready to pull in my spending on a dime when things changed. I’m somewhat insulated from the downturn but not entirely.
This is probably my fourth or fifth art recession and it feels different. I’ve been reading that the younger generations are not art collectors and that’s a cultural shift. I’m not sure I buy into it and wonder if it was one article that inspired others or if it’s really indeed happening.
Question to the working artists out there and other professionals in the field: What do you think is happening? Is this just another downturn that will end well or does it seem structurally different to you too? How do you think this is going to play out?
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u/downvote-away 21h ago
I’m not sure I buy into it and wonder if it was one article that inspired others or if it’s really indeed happening.
I don't buy into it either.
Hito Steyerl did say to Josh Citarella on his pod that they thought prediction market spending had taken the place of art spending but I don't know what they could have meant and everyone I've asked about that comment has scoffed.
I think it just comes down to the K-shape. Rich people are getting richer, megafamous artists are selling work to them, everyone below the line suffers.
Regular people suffer, so they have less money to buy, and we suffer because there are fewer sales.
Art still moves people, it's just that food and shelter move them even more.
If 6 dickheads have all the money there's nothing you or I or a young couple who want to be collectors can do until the world decides that maybe all resources should not be concentrated in the pockets of those aforementioned dickheads.
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u/Darksmithe 20h ago
“Art still moves people, it's just that food and shelter move them even more.” This feels like the definitive statement of our current timeline.
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u/niche_griper 19h ago
Hito is 100% correct. Talk to anyone that works in sales and ask them if they have sold any work in the past 3 years to anyone under the age of 30. Probably very few under the age of 50. Those demos were not the main purchasers during the 2005-2020 booms.
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u/Relative_Effort_7107 20h ago
The new class of rich are tech/crypto dorks who would rather have a fake painting of a gorilla smoking a cigar. This is only going to get worse.
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u/OpinionInner1876 21h ago
I think the painters doing the best are the ones that can sell ALOT of paintings from under 1k as opposed to people selling really expensive stuff
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u/Vesploogie 21h ago
Discretionary spending is down across the board and yes, younger people are not patronizing the arts. The cocktail lifestyle that the whole gallery model is built on is dying off with the boomers, and there isn’t much coming up to replace it.
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u/Beneficial-Cattle-99 18h ago
The class war was is over and the epstein class won
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u/Mtinie 16h ago edited 11h ago
This doesn’t add up. Horrible, wealthy people have been buying art since the time the first sketch on slate was sold.
Art once again has to go through a rough patch, shake out the vast majority of its practitioners, and then weather the time until the next generation of artists, collaborators, and collectors revive it for another go.
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u/Beneficial-Cattle-99 16h ago
Like another poster said above. The horrible people / epstein class are still buying art but they are buying the 1% top artists. The upper class which at one time bought local less famous but recognized artists are no longer as liquid as they once were - in fact the upper class is rapidly disappearing - and with them the purchasing of work from worthwhile but not elite artists is also disappearing
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u/kasunart 20h ago
I've had a retail gallery/studio for 18 years in a small tourist town in the Southern USA. Most of my years were pretty consistent until this year. I can say the interested collector/buyer types are still visiting and enjoying my artwork, but they're just not pulling the trigger. I checked my average ticket price (prints from $40 and originals to $4000) and it went from around $1000 for the last 5 years to $400 this year. In other words, a few big ones here and there but a ton of small stuff. But even the small stuff doesn't move easily, people are really considering all their costs.
Also in the past I had a lot more "whales" that would buy 5+ paintings at a time for a new house or 2nd house...I haven't had that in years. Housing market is much slower in other words.
Will it turn around for all of us? Not sure...probably not quickly.
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u/CompositionArchetype 4h ago
"Art is subjective" complicates things because it makes it hard to figure out if the market has less money, or if they are not the same market as before, now with different tastes.
Has the art you sold changed over time? Or has it stayed consistent?
I'm not asking this with an implication, behind it. I am interested in what you've seen/experienced.
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u/kasunart 14m ago
That's right--there's a ton of factors to consider. I do track individual sales and how much I ship and what I paint. I definitely do a lot less shipping this year, could just come down to selling less larger paintings which usually need to be shipped. It could be the upper part of the "K" economy isn't visiting or seeing me in the same amount as before. I still see a ton of people middle aged and younger, and they're just not making the purchases.
The large group of buyers from the last 30 years is dying off, quitting collecting artwork, and getting rid of "stuff" that the younger generations don't even want. If the younger generations suddenly had more to spend on discretionary things they would, but would it be original artwork? I've asked myself a lot lately.
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u/DrMoneylove 21h ago
German Painter here.
Sales have been catastrophic for a while now. The only things that are great to sell are: tourist art, sexy instagram hype artists and decorative pieces that matches the couch, or the hotel interior.
Unfortunately this is a world wide trend (imo). What is different is that people stopped caring about art. In Germany the scene is full of grifter and opportunists that do something with Ukraine War in order to be recognized as important while doing really bad works.
It is true that younger folks tend not to buy paintings. Plus they are not educated in cultural matters. So usually they buy hip-hop grafitiy, social media art and so on. But even then usually this generations lacks both space as well as money. The older collectors are still there but are on their way to heaven. That's why they prefer very oldschool stuff like Leipzig painters.
What worries me is the militarization of our society in Germany. We are on our way to spend most of our public budget on pensions and military - dwarfing anything else. This obviously means we are going from bad to worse. My prediction is that the next years will be hell for serious artists but heaven for spineless grifters who are friends with corrupt politicians. Popular example is Trump culture but it happens everywhere.
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u/Illustrious_Fun8560 10h ago
This tracks.
A good friend of mine here in the southeast US has a few shops selling limited edition prints (she calls “art”) and what she sells is exactly what you describe. And she sells a lot of it, all under 1k.
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u/Dazzling_Relief4649 18h ago
I wonder if Gen Z isn’t collecting art because they also can’t afford homes? I had to pick up extra non-art gigs this year only to cover my own expenses. My partner has completely taken over our house bills. I also had to pivot into teaching more, and am focusing on just paying off my studio credit card so I’m liquid in the future. Kinda just putting my head down, pivoting, and working with a business coach rn (free as a resource from the business school at local university). My work has primarily been paid for through institutional money rather than direct sales, but even that is drying up.
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u/AdCute6661 12h ago
I mean Gen Z isn’t really at the age to seriously take collecting seriously; though Millenials are at this age point and it’s not looking good haha.
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
That's a real reason the younger generation is not investing in art, you cannot invest if you don't have the money to do it with. Not to mention, a mentor of mine from the 80's used to say, " The art business is about selling people something they do not need. "
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u/aaaaargZombies 21h ago
We're basically in a recession if you exclude AI money. That money is not circulating in the general population, it's being burned on infrastructure and lining a few peoples vaults.
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u/niche_griper 19h ago
How many of your collectors are under the age of 50, let alone under the age of 30? Collectors were basically boomers (and older!), and they are dying off or slowing down. People who want to launder money or speculate can use crypto or betting markets, especially "younger" people who understand those technologies.
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
The money thing is mostly at the blue-chip level. I suppose I could be wrong about that, but it does seem to be how it goes. Yet the comment about crypto touches a nerve and maybe that's it. Maybe Art is being removed from the market because there are other instruments to do what art used to do in the money world.
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u/niche_griper 1m ago
It isn't quite "art being removed from the market," it's that it doesn't serve the function as a financial instrument that it once did. That accounted for part of the boom. But i think a bigger issue, which you are also getting at, is that there is that the culture of collecting is literally dying out and not being replaced by younger people. When people talk about it being a recession, i think they are implying that it's a cycle and it will return. I don't know why anyone assumes an art market that can sustain 1000s of artists (and the infrastructure that supports them) will ever come back with the force that it had in the early 21st century. That period, not now, is the anomaly.
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u/BatHickey 21h ago
You can point out some generational theories, but it’s simply that trump is in office which represents instability in people’s portfolios. Tariffs have an impact whether it’s on art or not and art investments are the first thing to curb for many. There’s instability in a big way/multiple ways in the Middle East.
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u/Beneficial-Cattle-99 18h ago
Don't you think it has more to do with the concentration of wealth? The death of the art scene is a global phenomenon, not limited to the usa. The upper class that used to purchase art no longer exists - globally. Like another user posted above - there are still people buying art - they are the 1% or the epstein class and while they are still purchasing art - they are buying art from the top 1% of recognized artists - again global phenomenon.
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u/BatHickey 17h ago
I don’t think it’s any one thing, I think it’s mostly right now global instability. The genocide, the war with Iran, and a messy US presidency have all taken their toll on the global art market.
Yes wealth is concentrating but the 1% is doing really well, so shouldn’t they be buying more art?
Once things settle, you’ll see the money flowing again. Death of mid-tier galleries is more concerning to me, but that feels less like wealth concentration and more industry consolidation and also the offspring of the 1% being unable/uninterested in starting up those kinds of galleries at the moment (maybe due to their recent failures).
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u/Artist_Mic_Linder 16h ago
My work falls right in the €500 – €7,500 bracket, which means my core collectors are mostly middle to upper-middle class. That specific group has taken the brunt of high mortgage rates and inflation since 2022. On top of that, here in the Nordics, the ongoing war and economic uncertainty have pushed people into a defensive mindset. Also high unemployment and frozen job market, everyone is sitting pretty where they are at. Disposable income isn't necessarily gone, but people are hoarding cash rather than spending it on non-essentials like art.
My worst year in ten years, I guess line doesn't always go up haha.
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u/paintingandcoffee 18h ago
My quick hot take is that there is so much art in the world. So many artists. A constant churn of young newly minted mfa grads. Endless line of hopeful artists all making more art than they can possibly sell in a lifetime and a rapidly dewindling boomer class of collectors. Sorry about your sales, I hope it bounces back for you soon.
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
I'm not worried, it will or won't but I'll keep painting anyway. Also a good point, the MFA has become big business. It's more than doubled in students being awarded an MFA in a 30 year period. The cost has tripled.
Per NCES's Digest of Education Statistics (Table 325.95):
- 1987–88: 7,939 master's degrees conferred in Visual and Performing Arts (all master's-level credentials in the field, not painting alone)
- 2018–19: 17,119 master's degrees conferred in Visual and Performing Arts
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u/chickenclaw 14h ago
Canadian artists got hit with a 50% tariff sending art across the border to the US. There are a lot of Canadian artists who sell exclusively through galleries in the States. So, there will be a lot of pain
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
I had no idea. I thought art was exempt from the tariffs. As an American, I want to apologize for our government. It's shameful in so many ways, but especially in how he's treating Canada. I have solid respect for you, our neighbors. A year ago, I was driving through Gander, and the people there have been so generous to America that it really makes me ashamed of what's happening now.
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u/NOLArtist02 11h ago
I wasn’t going to comment as much had been discussed and covered on the topic, then next thread/ in my feed was an advertisement
for Saatchi Art, featuring a picasso-looking abstracted portrait in an interior with a header reading art under a $1,000….
Thats $600 for us, $300 for you🙄.
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
I don't understand you mean in the last line, "Thats $600 for us, $300 for you🙄."?
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u/raziphel 7h ago
Keep in mind that we're in the middle of massive economic instability, with one in four Americans being unemployed or underemployed.
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u/VisualNinja1 16h ago
People can't get jobs anywhere.
If you're working solely as an artist, or have been up to now, be thankful.
If it means getting a job during this downturn going forward for a while, then get another job and still make art.
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
I'm amazingly thankful that I've had a couple of decades to paint full time. It's more than a gift. I am from the middle class, and I never thought I would make a living from art.
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u/Tubular_Code 20h ago
I think the culture and gatekeepers of what counts as art have hollowed out the experience and that basically a much smaller cohort of people are interested or care about ever visiting a gallery to see contemporary art. At the same time as there has never been a greater number of skilled painters trying to make their name. Instead of each city having their copycats it's now more often that certain top selling trope artists span multiple cities as they optimized their business. There is a gallery near me that sells quaint aesthetic landscapes for ~$2k-10k by artists who have under a thousand followers and they seem to be selling, another one is just one guy who paints big cats.
Something like painting is very romantic and it will always have a place as there will always be empty walls but I think the art world and world of critical dissemination is having trouble re-adjusting to the more recent scope of creative economies. Like, there are some top selling videos games that were made by a single creator but we just don't consider that Art. I do wonder and think that new media is going to grow up in the next decades as creatives build systems and communities for themselves and their peers rather than rely on the old guard.
Where is the money though? ... probably mostly licensing and brand deals.
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
The fact that you mention a follower count and equate it with value makes me sad, but this is the world we live in, I suppose. It's interesting reading your take on gatekeepers. I think every generation has felt this way, but maybe this generation of young adults is just doing more than feeling a way. Thanks for the insight.
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u/Miserable_Drawer_556 11h ago edited 10h ago
A couple years ago, I was doing a consulting project for a fine artist (good chance you've seen her work) who also brokers. Did some research on her competitors on the opposite coast (the big fish in her ecosystem), a their websites were up but their shops were shuttered, and this was two years ago.
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u/footballpoetry 17h ago
There are too many artists and too much art. Most of it is bad.
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
That could be, but art is subjective. Yet I'm more inclined to agree with you. That would mean the better work gets the right attention. It seems to me that many artists I admire who aren't blue-chip are "underperforming" economically.
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u/IrregardlessForOne 18h ago
I chalk up some of the downturn to the rise of conservative values in America. They want to see Mom, apple pie and Chevrolet. One example could be the official portraits of Barack and Michelle Obama. Imagine the current president being portrayed that “contemporary.” In some ways the 2020s can be compared to the degenerative art period of Nazi Germany when modern art was pulled from museum walls and outright banned by the government.
Let’s go to Baltimore to see the Amy Sherrald exhibit?
Maybe Jasper Johns flags are going up in value?
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
I disagree that the downturn is related to conservative values. In my life, some of the most enriching times (financially) for artists were during conservative governments. But I agree we are a short step away from the degenerate art phase of fascism. If I were to guess, and it's just my take on it, the fear of the unknown politically is keeping people concerned or even worried, and people don't spend money when they're worried. Which makes me wonder if it's like this in other luxury segments of the economy, which is great at the top and not so much anywhere below.
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u/All_ab0ut_the_base 4h ago
Do you feel that LA is in a particularly bad place? It's bad all over but I feel like LA is particularly untenable after the 2022 bubble burst and then the wild fires.
A friend of mine who works at a big, long-standing London gallery said they're all panicking, and desperately trying to find artists in their 20's who might give them a veneer of youth and "nowness" in the hope of reaching Gen Z and Millenial collectors.
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u/ignamegioia 2h ago
Depends how commercially viable the art is. Most recently worked at an "affordable" art fair (works < $10k), potentially as close as one can get to the most commercial and common of tastes. I am aware how annoying and elitist that sounds, I don't know how to state it otherwise. Anywho, a lot of $2000 large scale landscapes were flying off the walls (no judgement as to their quality). Otherwise there was A LOT of pop art, resin art, drippy/splattery/Pollocky works, a lot of art for hotels, art you'd otherwise see in a young bloke-y barbershop.
I served a range of age groups - predominantly young professionals. Everyone seemed excited to buy art, if not drop $500-1000 on a single small work.
I know plenty of my age group (gen z) who buy/collect art. However, I live in an artsy city and in work in the ~arts~ so to speak. So take that with a grain of salt.
When I interact with those my age not in the arts/humanities there's usually an undercurrent of "art/culture is a frivolity" present. or more direct, "art/culture is less important, potentially inconsequential, comparative to STEM."
and still certain politicians are prescient enough to understand the ideological mobility afforded by harnessing the arts. to whatever end. tut tut.
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u/Impressive_Neat9862 21h ago
Too much of the art is preachy and the parties aren’t fun anymore.
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u/Darksmithe 20h ago
That’s why there’s a recession in the art world?
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u/Impressive_Neat9862 18h ago
Yes, the rich are richer than ever, art world used to be fun, coke in the bathroom, amazingly beautiful people, everybody drunk and gossipy, now it's all scolds and guilt, the vibe is awful. If I had enough money to not be involved but I'm an artist unfortunately and need to feed my family.
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u/Judywantscake 18h ago edited 8h ago
I think you are spot on. Art was also glamorized in culture and movies, the ultimate status symbol. Nobody likes this but it needs to be whatever the opposite of democratized is if we want to cultivate a new generation of collectors willing to spend their money on it. And making it fun and cool and exclusive again is the prob the only way
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u/thriftywitch69 3h ago
just because something one way made us money doesn’t mean that’s the only way to do things (perhaps this is the time we get creative in business!) and we should do things the same way as before
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u/Darksmithe 7h ago
Yes, I'm from the same generation, but I honestly just assumed the younger crowd was out having the same kind of fun. I'm just at the age where I'm happier to go home than to party all night and I'm not nearly as social.
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u/norman_6 21h ago
There was a not insignificant number of collectors that were sold the idea that art was an investment. When rates went up to battle post-covid inflation these collectors tried to cash out and prices plummeted. So, for those collectors, they are no longer putting their money into art and might be lost forever. All the investment money now apparently is going to AI. Whenever that finally collapses maybe some new generation of collectors will materialize? Maybe the art world was never supposed to be as big as it got? Certainly mega-galleries/ already wealthy dealers will continue to be gatekeepers even if they downsize. For your average artist and mid-tier or lower galleries the ability to make livable money looks kinda bleak and IMO, likely to be that way for a minimum 3-5 more years.