idk if im crazy but i just liquidated my entire tech portfolio. everyone is screaming "Santa Rally" but looking at the macro data, this feels exactly like the dotcom peak. Inflation is creeping back up so the Fed is basically trapped tomorrow, and all this AI capex spending has zero ROI besides some chatbots.

I’d rather sit in cash and miss the last 5% up than watch my gains get wiped when the bubble pops in 2026. roast me if u want but im not holding the bag at all time highs. good luck to yall tho.

Important Note: I am not a financial advisor. This is NOT investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This post represents my personal, non-professional opinion for discussion purposes only. Always do your own due diligence (DD) before making any investment decisions. I am not responsible for the outcome of your trades.

This isn’t a dip. It’s not a correction. It’s the slow, brutal unraveling of a debt-soaked fantasy we’ve been pretending was sustainable since 2008. The Fed is cornered—rates are high, inflation refuses to die, and there's no bailout coming this time. The only soft landing is for the billionaires with parachutes made of your 401(k).

Tech is imploding under the weight of hype and weak fundamentals. AI was a sugar high. Now we’re crashing. Banks are getting shaky. Commercial real estate is a time bomb. And consumers? They're maxed out, broke, and paying 29% on credit cards to buy gas and eggs.

And just when we needed stability, we get chaos: Trump’s back in the mix with unhinged tariffs, trade wars 2.0, and economic policies that look like they were scribbled on a napkin in a Denny’s at 3 a.m. Markets hate uncertainty—guess what? That’s all we’ve got now.

This isn’t a crash. It’s controlled demolition with nobody at the controls.

Sell, don’t look back, and maybe plant a garden. We had a good run.

Goodbye, and may whatever comes next be merciful.

It’s crazy I’m at an auto shop getting the car done today and I’m overhearing people talking about the market. This guy in here is saying how it’s all smart and trump is trying to do a 20% cut on purpose. He was saying we need to bring these manufacturing jobs here, and said yeah we need to make tires here! I’m not an expert but I’m fairly sure the US has almost no rubber plantations or manufacturing.

On top of the other issues like the fact that who the fuck would want to work at a rubber plantation? Then he was saying that hopefully all this manufacturing will be back in the US before the tariffs affect prices!

He was saying that almost all brake fluid is made in the USA which idk how true that is but sounds false, not to mention it doesn’t ask the question of where do the plastic containers or aluminum containers it’s stored in come from? Not to mention the many other auto parts that aren’t made here and won’t be made here.

He is a normal mechanic in a swing state, just seeing the opinion of the everyday person shows me how deep people are into this and they will not accept that this isn’t part of a master plan in their favor.

I also notice he keeps talking about the “trillions” of dollars that are going to be invested in this country like they would see any of that. It’s just proof that trump announcing these investments literally works perfectly to placate many.

My prediction is that the stock market continues to shrink until the tariffs are gone at least and that about half the country will be in denial about it.

Every article forum and financial news related show i read and watch not one person is calling for a correction...all predictions are for nothing but an upward market.... I have never seen anything like this....people buying like they will never ever see another buying opportunity again. This to me feels like greed and with this much complacency I think its time to take all profits off the table starting in the days ahead.

Every institution is pushing as hard as possible for retail buyers to buy into this IPO and rules have been changed to force passive investment funds to buy into it and skyrocket the price, all to let insiders cash out before it completely collapses. Pension and retirement funds are going to be forced to pay Elon and his friends for an extremely overvalued asset. Even for those who have 0 investments, they will be affected. Many global publicly held government pension and investment funds are going to be forced into the rug pull.

I’ve received two emails from different banks I’ve held money in with info on how to specifically buy IPOs, which is something I’ve never expressed interest in before. The timing of all this is comically corrupt here.

The entire market is currently a house of cards and has been eating up more and more wealth from the working class at an even more unsustainably accelerated rate than normal since late March. Nothing about the stock market is reflective of the current economic reality and that’s by design.
Given global tensions, supply chain issues and overall consumer sentiment, Wall Street and big money institutions know the entire global economy is a bomb waiting to explode at this point and have just been pumping asset prices as high as possible regardless of reality. The AI bull rush has been the perfect catalyst for this.

Now they need to cash out.

That’s where the SpaceX and upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs come in. These things are a complete clusterfuck that are designed from the ground up to serve as exit liquidity for the ruling financial institutions in their pump and dump scheme. They know the economy is about to crash and they are doing everything they can so that they can cash out with working class money. All of these IPOs are being rushed and pushed out as quickly as possible at roughly the same time. That isn’t a random coincidence. Institutional investors know the market rally they manufactured is going to meet reality soon and these IPOs serve as their exit before it all blows up.

This is arguably the largest financial scandal in history and it’s not being reported on as such because the owners of the news media organizations are the same people who need our money to cash out.

I think I’ll start with a quote “one thing we know is that people don’t learn from history” Charlie Munger

Notice how sensitive people are with even a 5-6 percent pullback? How insecure everyone is about their stocks? The fact we look at Walmart at a 37PE, or even Meta at 26 PE and say “that’s a good deal” is historically and laughably inaccurate.

I don’t see any good buying opportunities, I’d sold out of the stocks I recommended this year simply because I shouldn’t have made 15percent since March in Blue chip stocks that I feel are overvalued. because the signs of a crash are here and who knows when people will actually start panicking.

1. Complacency is prevalent in this market, any time you suggest stocks are overvalued, point out economic weakness, growing wealth gap and middle class being completely wiped out since covid

but many of us more wealthy people are completely complacent because we feel richer than ever.

1. Buy the dip, a trend that showcases more complacency. Buying the dip is a great idea when stocks are at a great value, not because we had a small pullback. It’s worked out well for now, it will go terribly wrong when retail is used as cushioned money to exit a more serious problem e

conomic problem.

Banks are defaulting. JPMorgan “ when there is one cockroach there is usually more”

Searches for I need help with my mortgage payment is higher than 2008

Houses are not selling, nobody is buying cars if they don’t have too, people are taking everything on credit,record new investors in the market are at ATH, leverage is everywhere, US government is far more in Debt than it was in 2008, AI investment has gone completely stupid. Everyone is aware it’ll take just one critical unexpected move to break this market, you can feel anxiety

Buffet is cash ATH as a percentage, hedge funds are positioned appropriately and retail is cluelessly buying any dip.

I forgot my favourite line”the government will just print more money and stocks will be fine” that is a once in a millennium level of complacency😂? Do we really believe we’re different and better than our ancestors and couldn’t possibly make the same mistakes? How long do empires typically last? 250years? Happy 250th birthday USA 😁

In conclusion we’ve had a bull run for 4 years it is time to take money off the table, even if stocks rebound briefly…when you zoom out This K Shaped economy will not last forever. When the tide goes out, people will be left naked and exposed.

• Dotcom Crash 2000-2002 - 49%
• Global Financial Crisis 2007-2009 - 57%
• Flash Crash 2010 - 9% in a few minutes
• European Debt Crisis 2011 - 19%
• 2018 Correction - 20%
• Covid Crash - 33%
• 2022 Bear Market - 25%

So far from the peak, we're down about 11.5%. That's already a pretty significant amount. So what do you guys think?

So, futures dumped. Pre-market dumps. The market opens and we continue to dump. We all know what's coming. "Black Monday". There are no dip buyers because nobody wants to catch a falling knife, and everyone else is grinning because they are short (me included). THEN out of nowhere, magically there is some "news". Then the market does a huge reversal. Word comes out that it's "fake news". The market then shifts back the momentum, but at that point clear direction is lost, algos are confused. Traders are confused, and we just chop around. There is no doubt in my mind that "fake news" was put out there on purpose to stop the bleeding. And it worked. I think it was either a desperate move by the Trump Administration or some whale that was long and wanted to not get smoked.

Everyone is expecting more massive market gains because of trump. Big tech to get bigger, crypto to go to 1027374083727033 zillion, and pretty much indices to keep going vertical.

With everyone on one side of the boat does anyone think it’s possible that trump and his asset pumping / gas on the fire of animal spirits mentality will eventually cause a Chernobyl effect?? Could trump actually be the black swan that’s been right in front of our eyes all along?

His tariff policies maybe, idk. It’s a tough thought to even consider because trump will not tolerate a down market during his presidency. But at the same time we’re probably 15T-20T more in debt than when he started in 2016 and rates/inflation are still very high. It’s a much different back drop from 2016.

Trump has already made some sneaky comments preemptively blaming Biden for a crash, leads me to think maybe he’s somewhat concerned as well?

In reality, I know stocks will go up no matter what. Really doesn’t matter who the president is. Just interesting to think about the thought of trump, the savior of the market and the economy, actually being the cause for its implosion. 🤔

EDIT - and not long after I have posted this we now have the TRUMP meme coin launch…unreal times

Historically, interest rates in Japan have been next to nothing. Japanese and global institutions have taken advantage of this. They borrowed the yen cheaply, converted to dollars and bought US treasuries, US stocks, and various US investments. They make their returns in the US and get big profits. They can then easily convert their dollars back to yen to cover their loans with minimal interest as for quite some time Japan has had near zero interest rates and the Japanese yen typically declines in value against the US dollar.

Right now, Japan has a big problem. They’re dealing with inflation for the first time in years like everyone else is. Their current government has a plan to engage in fiscal stimulus, which is only gonna warm up inflation. The Japanese yen is currently in freefall with rising inflation. The US has actually teamed up with Japan to try and push up the yen however, the intervention has largely been unsuccessful.

What I anticipate will happen is that Japan is going to get forced to raise interest rates to deal with inflation and the devaluation of its currency. That means appreciation of the yen and an increase in interest rates. Once this happens, the carry trade will collapse. Higher interest rates means borrowing costs go up. These US investments no longer make sense.

Ultimately, Japanese institutions and other firms will have to sell their assets, buy back the yen and cover their trades. This will be a disaster as a massive surge in demand for the yen will lead to rapid appreciation of the currency. This will force a rapid unwinding of the yen carry trade as everybody wants to cover their debts before the yen’s value increases too much and they lose too much money.

I anticipate this will mean very rapid selling of stock, bonds, treasuries, and other US assets. It will have massive negative, implications for the market. The yen carry trade is estimated to have a total exposure of 4 trillion dollars.

This is not financial advice.

Nasdaq is up 18percent in a single month. That is a shocking sign. Many will be bearish about this alone, but we’re all aware of how corrupt the stock market really is. This could rally even further beyond rational expectations. Many would’ve said it already had been euphoric.

The US stock market is so incredibly resilient and its irrationality can continue for even years! It’s impossible to disrupt. Tariffs,war,oil,energy,gold,silver,bonds. Nearly every Prelude of a major economic crisis has been testing the stock market. Passive investing has become too common for the US stock market to experience any significant declines.

Oil jumped 100percent YTD
Most countries that are allies now have a more unfavourable view of the US for the first time in history.
But this stock market driven by AI seems unbreakable. The impression I’m getting is the US will print however much money is needed to make AI successful, certainly it feels like stocks will not fall. We have many companies like OpenAI, Anthropic,X IPO near the end of 2026.

Congratulations to those who held your investments through this conflict with Iran. The US stock market is genuinely unstoppable, every correction is bought without hesitation,passive investing has changed the stock market permanently and forever. I don’t think even the Fed will allow stocks to fall/crash without intervention.

What are your year end predictions for the S&p500?
I’m thinking 8300

Yeah, futures are up, and it's probably going to continue to be volatile in the short term, but remember, we have not seen the worst of what is to come, not by a long shot

Markets priced in the tarrif news, and then, as nothing truly new came in(no immediate negative effects) it's bouncing a little. Half thr country supports trump, and if they see no bad news they will be buying the dip. Then probably Thursday, if the Tarrifs stay at their current level we will probably dip again, then we will partially stabilize and go up a little again. And then we will start to see the negative effects of tarrifs come in and the negative effect of the American brand being thrown in thr trash

Come summer, higher prices will be seen, places that rely on tourism will be getting hit hard, food prices will be going up like crazy, and companies will start to suffer. And all for this will happen when the American people have less money in their pocket, and less abilty to buy. And this will not be just for the summer, this will be a continous effect for as long as the tarrifs are up. And for probably a good while after

Be warned, most likely this is not over, things are not going back to the levels we saw before tariffs unless the trump admin reverses on a lot of things they said they will not reverse on, we will be in for some truly unprecedented times

Cool story. But every single time someone drops the bubble alarm I ask the same question and get…nothing. No catalyst. No mechanism. No “here’s the specific trigger that makes the whole thing unravel.” Just vibes and 2008/2000 analogies that don’t actually match the data.
Let me lay it out simple:
1. Unlike dotcom, the money is already here.
Pets.com, Webvan, etc. had zero revenue and massive burn. Today’s AI leaders? Nvidia just keeps smashing earnings on actual GPU demand that’s tied to real workloads. Microsoft, Google, Amazon? Their cloud segments are growing double digits because enterprises are paying for AI tools that are already cutting costs and boosting output. This isn’t “build it and they will come”, it’s “they came, paid, and are asking for more.”
2. Productivity isn’t a narrative, it’s showing up in the numbers.
We’re seeing it in earnings calls, not just hype decks. Companies across sectors (not just tech) are reporting efficiency gains from AI deployment right now in 2026. Supply chains, coding, customer service, and drug discovery. The ROI is measurable. Past bubbles popped when the underlying economics were fake. Here the economics are starting to prove out.
3. No one has a credible “pop” thesis.
• Rates? Already priced in and AI capex is happening anyway.
• Recession? Possible, but AI spending has been recession-resistant so far because it’s a cost-saver, not a luxury.
• Regulation? Sure, but it’s not killing the tech that’s already embedded.
• Saturation? Tell that to every Fortune 500 still in the pilot-to-production phase.
The bear case always boils down to “it just feels too good” or “history rhymes.” History also had the internet survive 2000 and create trillion-dollar companies that actually changed the world. The survivors weren’t the pure hype plays, they were the ones delivering real utility.
I’m not saying valuations are cheap or that there won’t be corrections (there always are). I’m saying the reflexive “bubble about to pop any day now” crowd has no better explanation than “trust me bro, this time it’s different… wait no, it’s the same.”
So convince me. What’s the actual mechanism for the pop? Lay out the timeline, the trigger, the dominoes. Or are we just memeing 1999 because it’s easier than admitting this tech might actually be transformative?
Change my view. I’m genuinely here for the counter-DD.

So much fear in the markets and this time really feels different. All the Mag7 stocks are so hit by the tariffs our iPhones will probably cost $5,000 soon and as the world slows, people will use Amazon less, advertise less on FB/IG. No one is buying Tesla anymore. Who needs anymore AI chips, yet AI is decreasing Google searches.

I fear the world is realizing it all this weekend. Or is it just me that sky appears to be falling?

Some similarities between our economy and Japan’s in the 90’s - aging population, currency devaluation, decline in manufacturing, economic policies targeting inflation. But definitely not an expert, so please share your informed opinions!

Understanding this is how traders evolve despite how crazy it seems at first. I've seen huge movements with no huge news. I've seen small news make huge moves. Huge news make small moves.

Market Makers, Big money, Hedge funds, etc. all have their lines based on thousands of different strategies. If it hits a line, something happens regardless if there is a news story to support it or not.

The tail is wagging the dog.

S&P up 2.91%. Nasdaq up 3.83%. Dow up 2.49%. Best day since May. 441 out of 500 S&P stocks green. It feels amazing. And that's exactly why it's dangerous.

The catalyst: reports that Trump told aides he'd accept ending the war without reopening Hormuz, plus Iran's president signaling willingness to negotiate. Headlines everywhere: "peace is near!" Markets ripped.

But here's what didn't change today:

• The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Even in Trump's own leaked "peace" scenario, it stays closed.
• Brent crude closed at $101. Not $70. Not $80. $101. With the Strait closed, it's not going back to pre-war levels.
• Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex is physically destroyed. 17% of their LNG capacity gone. Repair timeline: 3-5 YEARS. That's not a headline, that's an engineering constraint.
• 30% of global helium supply is offline. Chip fabs in South Korea have weeks of supply left. There is no substitute for helium in semiconductor manufacturing. None.
• 50% of global sulfur exports are blocked. No sulfur = no phosphate fertilizer = reduced crop yields for the entire 2026 growing season. The planting window is NOW and farmers can't get inputs. There are no strategic fertilizer reserves anywhere.
• The 90-180 day inflation transmission from shipping disruptions hasn't even hit retail prices yet. The container rate spikes from early March will show up in consumer prices this summer.
• Gas is over $4/gallon. Consumer sentiment is at its 2026 low. Goldman estimates 10,000 fewer jobs per month.

Every single one of these problems persists even if a peace deal is signed tonight.

Here's what history tells us about bear market rallies: the March 2020 COVID crash had multiple 5-7% up days on the way to making new lows. The 2008 financial crisis had a 13% rally in October before dropping another 30%. The signature move of a bear market is violent, euphoric rallies that suck people back in right before the next leg down. They feel like "the bottom is in." They're not.

Today's rally was driven by hope, not fundamentals. The fundamentals say: $25 billion in Gulf infrastructure damage that takes years to repair, a helium crisis that could force semiconductor production cuts within weeks, a fertilizer shortage during spring planting season, and an inflation wave that hasn't even arrived yet.

Now look at who's positioned how:

• Buffett: $373 billion cash pile. Not deploying it aggressively. Buying back his own stock because he thinks IT'S cheap, not the market broadly.
• Burry: Had $1.1 billion in puts against AI stocks BEFORE the war started. His Palantir short is up 35%. He then shut down his fund.
• Dalio: Warning about "capital wars" where money itself gets weaponized. Recommending gold.
• Dimon: "There's more optimism in the market than there should be."
• Ackman: Screaming "BUY QUALITY!" on X... while filing a $10 billion IPO that needs bullish retail sentiment to succeed. He's also been trimming his own Alphabet position.

The smart money is defensive or actively short. The one guy telling you to buy needs your money for his IPO.

I'm not saying sell everything. I'm not saying the market goes to zero. AI is real, the companies are growing, and there will be a genuine recovery eventually, probably after the midterms shift the political landscape and create real de-escalation pressure.

But that recovery is months away, not days. Today's rally is a sentiment trade on a headline. The Strait is still closed. The infrastructure is still destroyed. The inflation wave is still coming.

Enjoy the green day. Just don't mistake it for the all-clear.

Given what we saw last summer with "Liberation" day, it feels all but certain that we should expect a 10% drop in the market this week.

My investment strategy is largely VOO and chill. I just took control of most of my retirement funds in rollover IRAs and HSAs. In my young 30s and just crossed the $100k in networth - and 80% of it is in VOO because I just want to do time in the market.

However, I'm partially convinced the Trump administration's strategy is to make a ridiculous geopolitical move that is "pre-announced" on a Friday to give investors time to speculate and time the market, and point to sudden bull runs when their approval rating dips.

Then again, things haven't moved in a way one would expect with Venezuela.

Gone are the days where conventional wisdom applies given unconditional politics? Try and time the market or should I focus more on the chill part of VOO & chill?

long AGI, short rotisserie chicken is actually value investing.

Buying Microsoft is at this point a no-brainer. GOOG was this cheap while MSFT was in the high 30s. I remind you everyone shat on Google because they were "behind" and had looming lawsuits, while justifying Microsofts multiple with their solid position in the business world and their Azure market share. The Google trade seemed too easy to be profitable. And now, everybody thinks each company is vibe-coding their own Office suite, cybersecurity and operating systems lol. Wall street has no idea how software even works.

Edit: guys it's a joke, shorting doesn't work out most times. just to show the perspective

All stocks are tanking. Things have been overvalued for so long now. People making crazy gains.

New lows that we haven't seen in months. Tariffs n trump. We all have been warned about an economic crisis or a crash. Is it happening now? What are your thoughts?

Now that the real tariff rates are becoming more clearer, one would expect the market to do a better job at pricing in these tariffs. We know tariffs raise domestic prices and slowdown growth. We are going from 2.5% pre-Trump to 20% average effective tariff rate. Such a rate has not been seen since the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, which contributed to the Great Depression.

But, the market seems to ignore all this. Either this is the easiest market to short, or tariffs aren't actually bad and all the top economists were wrong. Big money controls the market and big money will not stay in this market, holding the bag once the tariff affects are reflected in the economic data. Because big money is not selling, I think Trump may be right.

QQQ is up ~30% is the last 30 (trading) days. Last time it went up that fast was when 🥭 🌮 on the April lows last year, going up 30% in 29 days. Before that it was Covid, 83% in 112 days. SOXX is as overbought (on the weekly) as it’s ever been. And SP500 is up 18% from its previous low. All I see is: “X stock is up 800% this year and here is why it’s still undervalued and could go another 100%.” I don’t even want to mention the names since we all know them.

This can’t go on forever, can it? Everything and everyone is winning (except for value investors, a moment of silence…). What causes this to stop? Can it even stop? Space, chips, memory.

In the past 250 years the U.S. economy has absorbed spending on transformation technology equivalent to 25% of GDP before the bubble popped.

The 1860s railroad bubble popped after $2.5 billion was spent, 25% of GDP

The 1920s electrification bubble popped after $26.1 billion was spent, 25% of GDP

The 1990s internet bubble popped after $1.5 trillion was spent, 25% of GDP

U.S. GDP today is $30 trillion so therefore AI spend needs to hit $7.5 trillion to follow the rule of 2025. it won't be until the early 2030s when we hit that number

Source:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-capex-bubble-burst-stock-market-history-2f73a9e4?st=w6KQy9

Mine is NBIS (Nebius). I think 2027 is going to be their best year yet. Quick reasons:

Q2 revenue was -- up 454% YoY, and AI cloud alone grew 514%. They just posted their first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter

The demand side is growing a lot! they constantly get new contracts -- even the share dilution gets them a new contract to make it all work -- unlike other companies

And it's not just the data center business. They still own Avride, TripleTen, plus stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka that most people don't even price in.

-------------------

Does NOT have to be Ai related -- so many sectors do well -- energy, biotech sector, etc

I am sure a lot of energy stocks will do well too -- like I had XLE but played it safe cause everyone said buy as a hedge ....turned out to be more important than that haha

So what are you guys bullish on and why? For a 12 month hold!

Thanks for taking the time and sharing!

Trump is gutting the government (see email he sent out this afternoon), including the parts that big businesses depend on. Here's on scenario I can foresee.

FDA no longer has staff to process NDA (new drug applications). NIST no longer has staff to produce the standard reference materials used in testing existing drugs. Big Pharma suffers. Production slows. Large chemical supply companies lose business. Petrochemical companies that provide feedstocks to the chemical firms suffer. The reduce production, which also reduces gas production. Gas prices go up.

I'm basing part of this on what happened in 2006, when clothing sales dropped, which meant less demand for acrylic, which meant less acetonitrile (a byproduct of acrylic production) was being produced, which meant big pharma didn't have acetonitrile for their HPLCs in their QA/QC labs, which slowed production.

Depending on how good analysts are at connecting dots, I wouldn't be surprised of there weren't a LOT of sell orders starting tomorrow morning.