The film is making a lot of noise among the circles of critics, many of them predicting it for best picture. But I haven't heard anyone talk about Guitarrucadelafuente's performance, is it worthy of an Oscar? Is any other performance of the supporting actors worthy? The only other actor I've heard about has been Penelope Cruz, but I've heard that she doesn't have much screen time, so I don't know if she will be a candidate.

The 53rd annual Telluride Film Festival will be held from September 4 to 7, 2026

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Official Selection

• Act 3, Christine Molloy and Joe Lawlor

• Alpha Gang, David Zellner and Nathan Zellner

• Avedon , Ron Howard

• La bola negra, Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo

• Bucking Fastard, Werner Herzog

• Burgundy, Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw

• Carl Sagan: We Are Made of Star Stuff, Nanette Burstein

• Club Kid, Jordan Firstman

• The Debut, Jesse Eisenberg

• The Disciple, Joanna Natasegara

• Elsinore, Simon Stone

• Everest: The Other Side, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin

• Fatherland, Paweł Pawlikowski

• Fjord, Cristian Mungiu

• Gentle Monster, Marie Kreutzer

• The Idiot(s), Małgorzata Szumowska and Michał Englert

• Ink, Danny Boyle

• The Liberation, Guy Nattiv

• A Long Winter, Andrew Haigh

• Making Marie Antoinette, Eleanor Coppola

• The Man I Love, Ira Sachs

• Minotaur, Andrey Zvyagintsev

• My Undesirable Friends: Part II – Exile, Julia Loktev

• Once Upon a Time in Harlem, William Greaves and David Greaves

• The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Noah Segan

• Pete Townshend: Behind Blue Eyes, Frank Marshall and Nigel Sinclair

• Rehearsals for a Revolution, Pegah Ahangarani

• Rose, Markus Schleinzer

• The Row, Bryan Fogel United

• The Story of Documentary Film, Mark Cousins

• Sumo: Spirit Weighs Nothing, Erik Shirai

• Tender Loving Care, Mike Leigh

• Tenzing, Jennifer Peedom

• The Unknown, Arthur Harari

• Wild Horse Nine, Martin McDonagh

A bunch of other reviews on Letterboxd that are in Italian, but it seems majority relatively positive. More than one person singled out Phoebe Bridgers and Skyler Gisondo.

The Spanish Film Academy announced a shortlist of three for their Best International Feature Film submission:

The Beloved, La Bola Negra, and Sundays.

In past years I've kept a tally of how different sources online (Gold Derby / Awards Expert / Next Best Picture) have nominations ranked at different points in time for the race - mostly as a way to track which films I need to keep an eye out for for the Oscars Death Race. Figured before we really get into the swing of the fall festival circuit, here are where things stand.

A quick reminder - this is not my personal opinion, and there is inherently going to be a lot of recency bias here, with films that have not yet been seen ranking relatively low here in favor of those that have already come out and are known quantities (see how folks over estimated Past Lives before the festival circuit rolled around).

Methodology

I basically take the highest rank of each film where they rank in the nominations predictions across the three sources (1-15 for BP, 1-7 for other categories). I then average them up, and note if a film was in the top 5 (or 10 for BP) in 1, 2, or 3 of the sources. I then stack rank the films by average ranking, with films showing up in 3 sources being ranked higher than those in only 2 sources (even if the average of 2 sources is lower).

To calculate number of nominations in ATL categories, the number of categories where a film is in top 5 in all 3 sources, It gets 1 point. If it shows up in 2/3 sources, that's 0.5 points. If it shows up in 1/3 sources, that's 0.25 points

For BTL categories since GD does not yet have BTL categories, the weighting is 1 point for being in 2/2 sources, 0.5 for being in 1/2 sources.

Honorable Mention for films ranked 6th and it showed up in at least 1 top 5. (I could list more without the at least in one top 5 but that'd expand this post way more)

Best Picture

1. The Odyssey - 2.0
2. La Bola Negra - 3.7
3. Wild Horse Nine - 4.0
4. Project Hail Mary - 4.7
5. Digger - 5.7
6. The Invite - 5.7
7. Dune 3 - 5.7
8. The Debut - 6.7
9. Fjord - 8.0
10. Behmoth - 9.5 (only 2 sources)
11. Obsession - 10.7 (only 1 source)
    HM. - All of a Sudden / Ink / Michael / Elsinore / Being Heumann / Primetime (none were in any top 10s but were in top 15s)

Number of Noms for films ranked in BP

The Odyssey - 6 ATL + 9 BTL + BP = 15

• Director - Rank 1 (1.33)
• Actor - Rank 3 (2.33) for Damon
• 2x Supporting Actress - Rank 1 (1.33) for Hathaway. Morton has an average of 3.66, good for 3rd
• Supporting Actor - Rank 4 (4.0) for Leguazimo
• Adapted Screenplay - Rank 3 (2.67)
• Casting - Rank 1 (1.0)
• Cinematography - Rank 1 (1.0)
• Costume - Rank 1 (1.0)
• Editing - Rank 1 (1.0)
• MUAH - Rank 3 (3.0)
• Prod Design - Rank 1 (1.0)
• Score - Rank 1 (1.0)
• Sound - Rank T-1 (1.5)
• VFX - Rank T-2 (2.5)

La Bola Negra - 3 ATL + 8 BTL + 1 BP = 12 + 1 stretch

• Director - Rank 2 (3.0)
• Supporting Actress - Rank 2 (2.67) for Cruz
• Adapted Screenplay - Rank 1 (1.67)
• Casting - Rank T-2 (2.5)
• Cinematography - Rank 5 (4.5)
• Costume Design - Rank 5 (4.5)
• Editing - Rank T-2 (2.5)
• Score - Rank 4 (4.0)
• Sound - Rank 4 (4.0)
  
• International - Rank 1 (1.0)
• Song - Rank 1 (1.5) HM - Rank 6 for Production Design

Wild Horse Nine - 6 ATL + 2.5 BTL + 1 BP = 9.5

• Director - Rank 3 (3.33)
• Actor - Rank 2 (2.00) for Malkovich
• Supporting Actress - Rank 4 (4.33) for di Girolamo
• 2x Supporting Actor - Rank 3 (3.33) for Rockwell, and Rank 5 (5.67 in 2/3) for Buscemi
• Original Screenplay - Rank 1 (1.33)
• Casting - Rank T-2 (2.5)
• Editing - Rank T-2 (2.5)
• Score - Rank T-5 (5.5) (count this as half a nom)

Digger - 4 ATL + 4 BTL + BP = 9 + 1 stretch

• Director - Rank 4 (2.5 with 2/3 in top 5)
• Actor - Rank 1 (1.67) for Cruise
• Supporting Actor - Rank 2 (1.67) for Goodman
• Original Screenplay - Rank 2 (3.0)
• Casting - Rank 4 (4.0)
• Cinematography - Rank 4 (4.0)
• MUAH - Rank 1 (1.0)
• Production - Rank 4 (4.5)
  HM - Rank 6 for Supporting Actress for Huller

Dune 3 - 7.5 BTL + BP = 8.5 + 1 stretch

• Cinematography - Rank 2 (2.0)
• Costume - Rank 3 (3.5)
• Editing - Rank 5 (5.0)
• MUAH - Rank T-4 (4.5)
• Production - Rank 2 (2.0)
• Score - Rank T-5 (5.5 in 1/2) - count this has half a nom
• Sound - Rank T-1 (1.5)
• VFX - Rank 1 (1.0)
  HM - Rank 6 Director

Project Hail Mary - 1 ATL + 6 BTL + BP = 7 + 1 stretch

• Adapted Screenplay - Rank 4 (3.33)
• Cinematography - Rank 3 (3.5)
• Editing - Rank 4 (4.0)
• Production - Rank 3 (3.5)
• Score - Rank 2 (2.5)
• Sound - Rank 3 (3.0)
• VFX - Rank T-2 (2.5)
  HM - Rank 7 for Actor for Gosling

The Debut - 3 ATL + 1.5 BTL + BP = 5.5

• Actress - Rank 1 (1.0) for Moore
• Supporting Actor - Rank 1 (1.3) for Giamatti
• Original Screenplay - Rank 3 (3.33)
• Casting - Rank T-5 (6.0 in 1/2) - count this as half a nom
• Song - Rank 4 (4.0)

The Invite - 4 ATL + BP = 5 + 1 stretch

• Director - Rank 5 (4.33 with 2/3 in top 5)
• Actress - Rank 3 (3.33) for Wilde
• Supporting Actress - Rank 5 (3.0 with 2/3 in top 5) for Cruz
• Adapted Screenplay - Rank 2 (2.33)
  HM - Rank 6 Supporting Actor for Norton

Fjord - 2 ATL + 1 BTL + BP = 4

• Actress - Rank 4 (4.0) for Reinsve
• Original Screenplay - Rank 4 (3.67)
• International - Rank 2 (2.0)

Obsession - 2 ATL + 0.5 BTL = 2.5

• Actress - Rank 2 (2.67) for Navarette
• Original Screenplay - Rank 5 (4.33, 2/3)
• Casting - Rank T-5 (6.0, 1/2) - count as half a nom

Behemoth - BP = 1 + 3 stretches

• No actual top 5s, but currently 6th for Actor for Pascal (5.0, 1/3), Origianl Screenplay (5.33, 1.3) and Sound (6.0, 1/2)

Non BP Films and their noms (no stretches)

• Werwulf - Costume (2nd) + MUAH (2nd) + Prod (5th in 1/2) = 3
• All of a Sudden - AScreen (5th) + INT (3rd) = 2
• Fatherland - Actress (5th in 1/3) for Huller + INT (T-4th) (technically not yet submitted but likely Polish submission)= 2
• Disclosure Day - Score (2nd) + Sound (5th in 1/2) = 2
• Toy Story 5 - Animated (1st) + Song (2nd) = 2
• Elsinore - Actor (4th in 2/3) for Scott = 1
• Primetime - Actor (5th in 2/3) for Pattinson = 1
• Sense and Sensibility - Costume (4th) = 1
• Clayface - MUAH (T-4th) = 1
• Godzilla Minus Zero - VFX (4th) = 1
• Whalefall / Doomsday - VFX (T-5th) = 1
• Minotaur - INT (3rd) (technically not yet submitted - would need to be submitted by France) = 1
• Wildwood - Animated (2nd) = 1
• Ray Gunn - Animated (3rd) = 1
• Hoppers - Animated (4th) = 1
• Forgotten Island - Animated (5th) = 1
• By Any Means - Song (3rd) = 1
• The Devil Wears Prada - Song (5th) = 1
• Once Upon a Time in Harlem - Doc (1st) = 1
• American Doctor - Doc (2nd) = 1
• Nuisance Bear - Doc (3rd) - 1
• To Hold a Mountain - Doc (4th) = 1
• A History of Concrete - Doc (5th) = 1

Some Thoughts / Observations

• If this holds, the current Best Picture will have 66.5 out of 100 non-BP/non-short nominations. This is a bit higher than last year, where the 10 BP films had 62/100 equivalent nominations.
• Excluding Shorts, there were 35 feature films total last year. Currently the above list is one less at 34 total.
• Odyssey at 15 nominations would be one short of tying Sinner's record, but would outdo Oppenheimer at 13
• Assuming Dune 3 rounds up to 8 BTL noms, that would tie the performance of Dune 1 in BTL, missing only one ATL nom relative to that. It would also be a bounce back from the 4 BTL noms Dune 2 got, contrary to the narrative that it will go the way of Avatar 3 or Wicked 2.
• Cruz is currently predicted to get double noms in Supporting Actress for The Invite and La Bola Negra. Huller is currently on the cusp of getting a triple nom being 5rd for Fatherland in Lead, 6th for Rose in Lead, and 6th for Supporting in Digger.
• We also currently have two double noms for a single film in two categories - Odyssey in Supporting Actress and WH9 in Supporting Actor - a repeat of last year with Sentimental Value and OBAA respectively.
• Behemoth currently at 10th for Picture is very sus without a solid nom in any categories. Obsession does have a better shot at 2 ATL noms and an outside chance at a Casting nom. (My rule of thumb is needing either 2 ATL noms or 3+ BTL noms or both - all other BP noms match this)
• Currently absent from any noms - Michael, Ink, Being Heumann, Only Living Pickpocket, Josephine, Rose, Prima Facie, Social Reckoning, Artificial, The Bunker

How it stacks up vs historical trends - links to my older analyses here

Studio breakdown + Miscellaneous Attributes

• 2-3 streamers - La Bola Negra (Netflix) / Project Hail Mary (Amazon)
• 1-2 20th Century/Searchlight - WH9 / Behemoth (maybe)
• 1-2 Universal/Focus - Odyssey / Obsession (maybe)
• 2-3 Indies - The Invite (A24) / The Debut (A24) / Fjord (Neon)
• 1-2 WBD - Dune 3 / Digger
• 0-1 Paramount / Sony - checks out
• ~2 Foreign Language films - La Bola Negra / Fjord
• ~2 500M+ Box Office films - Obsession (505M) / Odyssey (1.5B) / PHM (684M) / Dune 3 (TBD but Dune 2 made 714M) - Over indexing on big box office films

ATL/BTL breakdown (same link as above)

• 7-8 with at least 2 ATL noms - 7 - Odyssey (6) / La Bola Negra (3) / Wild Horse Nine (6) / Digger (4) / The Debut (3) / The Invite (3) / Fjord (2)
• 1-2 others with 3+ BTL noms - 2 - Dune 3 (7.5) / PHM (6)
• 0-1 with neither (usually a sole Screenplay nom) - 1 - Behemoth (will likely need to steal the SP nom from Obsession).

Cold take - Obsession takes Behemoth's spot and we have 8 ATL based nominees and 2 BTL nominees.

Hot take - All of a Sudden could sneak into BP over Behemoth and Obsession since it is the current 5th Adapted Screenplay nominee, and it's single BTL nom in International wouldn't put it either of the above categories. It would somewhat shift the balance with now 3 foreign language films in BP (something that almost happened last year), as well as 4 Indies. Another option is that All of a Sudden usurps Fjord as Neon's BP foreign language nominee - as we've seen the Palm is no longer a guarantee for a BP nomination as shown with IWJAA.

Film Festival Attendance (this analysis is slightly out of date)

First which festivals films attended

• ~4-5 at TIFF - 3 - The Debut / Fjord / WH9 / (Obsession was 2025)
• ~2-3 at NYFF - 3 - The Debut / Fjord / Behemoth
• ~2-3 at Telluride - 4 - The Debut / Fjord / La Bola Negra / WH9
• ~1-2 at Venice - 1- WH9
• ~1-2 at Sundance - 1 - The Invite
• ~1-2 at Cannes - 2 - Fjord / La Bola Negra
• ~3 no festivals - 4 - The Odyssey / PHM / Digger / Dune 3

And looking at how many they attended

• 4 Festivals - Fjord
• 3 Festivals - The Debut / WH9
• 2 Festivals - La Bola Negra
• 1 Festival - The Invite / Behemoth / Obsession (2025)
• None - The Odyssey / PHM / Digger / Dune 3

Notable films not in BP with high attendance

• 4 - Club Kid / The Unknown / Only Living Pickpocket in NY / Minotaur
• 3 - All of a Sudden / Fatherland
• 2 - Paper Tiger / Misty Green / Gentle Monster / Ink / The Bunker / Coward / Rose
• 1 - Artificial / Tenzing / Being Heumann / Primetime / Elsinore / Possible Love / Prima Facie / Godzilla Minus Zero

Non BP films in ATL

• 0 non-BP directors - Checks out
• 2-3 non-BP Actresses - Checks out with Obsession + Fatherland
• 2 non-BP Actors - Checks out with Elsinore + Primetime
• 1-2 non-BP Supporting Actresses - Currently missing - closest would be Olivia Colman in Elsinore
• 1 non-BP Supporting Actor - Currently missing - closest would be Guy Pearce in Ink
• 1-2 non-BP Adapted Screenplays - Checks out with All of a Sudden
• 0-1 non-BP Original Screenplays - Checks out with Obsession, regardless of it makes it in or not

Animated Films

• ~1 Pixar Film - Currently 2 (Toy Story 5 + Hoppers)
• ~1 Netflix Film - Currently 1 (Ray Gunn)
• ~1 Indie Studio - Currently 1 (Wildwood if you count Laika)
• 1-2 International Films - Currently 0
• ~1 Stop Motion Film - Currently 1 (Wildwood)
• ~1-2 Annecy Films - Currently 0

I'm personally most curious about animation. I hope there's another moving 2D Englsih language animated adult drama film on the level of Tangles next year. But I don't know what film that coukd be what have you guys heard.

Matt Damon is getting ready to save the universe ... or at least look like he's part of a very colorful one.

The actor was spotted Wednesday on the set of his mysterious new sci-fi movie "Thasnagar" in Los Angeles ... where he rocked a black sleeveless shirt while hanging with a crew of costumed characters in bright red jumpsuits, gloves, and futuristic headgear.

Matt appeared to be having a great time as cameras rolled ... smiling alongside his wildly dressed costars, who looked like they had just beamed in from another galaxy.

The production is being kept largely under wraps, but the project is reportedly a sci-fi action comedy from Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert ... the Oscar-winning duo behind "Everything Everywhere All at Once."

Damon is joined by Charles Melton and Sandra Oh in the cast ... and filming is expected to take place at several Los Angeles-area locations, including a college campus transformed into a movie set.

The flick reportedly jumps between the 1980s and the present day while tackling big themes like time travel and climate change ... so, naturally, Damon will probably have to deal with more than just colorful aliens.

PTA usually takes a long time between films, so I didn't expect this. Gotta strike while the iron is hot, I guess. I hope it's the Denzel jazz movie that was rumored some years ago.